The major economic data and financial events for this week (3/18-3/22) are as follows:
In terms of economic data, the latest federal funds rate has received attention from all sides. Analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold for the 6th time in a row; the State Information Office will release important data such as the annual rate of fixed asset investment in China and the annual rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods; in addition, the number of US applicants at the beginning of the week and China's March LPR all require attention.
In terms of financial events, this week's major events continued one after another. The Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate decisions, Powell's press conference, the Bank of Japan press conference, and the Nvidia AI conference must be closely watched.
In terms of financial reports, this week's major earnings reports are coming one after another. Tencent, Pinduoduo, Meituan, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi will all be on the list.
In terms of IPOs, Reddit, known as the “US version of Tieba,” will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange on March 21 (Thursday) EST.
Related information:[Prize] Check out the key performance calendar for the week in one picture (3.18-3.22)
March 18
Keywords: China's annual fixed asset investment rate, unemployment rate, regulated industrial value added; press conference on the operation of the national economy by the State Information Office; GTC 2024
On Monday, the Information Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. Beijing time. At that time, it will announce important data such as the annual rate of urban fixed asset investment in China for January-February, the annual rate of value added for industries above scale, and the annual rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods.
Analysts generally believe that during the low production season in January-February, when there were more employees returning to their hometowns during the Spring Festival than last year, the popularity of the production side declined; due to the differentiation of different industries, automobile and chemical production increased sharply year on year, and the steel industry chain and petroleum asphalt production declined. Industrial production may have improved marginally due to a moderate recovery in exports. Consumption benefited from the long Spring Festival holiday and strong performance, while the sales volume of housing enterprises in Baicheng declined year-on-year in January-February, and demand for real estate has yet to pick up.
Additionally, Hong Kong, China will also announce the three-month unemployment rate for December 2023 to February 2024.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong, China, from November 2023 to January 2024 was 2.9%, the same as the figure for October to December 2023. The underemployment rate remained constant during the two periods, remaining at 1.0%.
In terms of major events, from March 18 to 21, Nvidia's AI conference GTC 2024 will be held at the San Jose Convention Center in the US. Today (March 19 at 4 a.m. Beijing time), Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun will give a speech on the theme “1 #AI峰会 for Developers”.
According to Nvidia, Hwang In-hoon will release the latest breakthrough results in the fields of accelerated computing, generative AI, and robotics at that time.
The market generally believes that the conference focused on 4 topics: 1. Next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture, 2. New B100 chips, 3. Humanoid robots, and 4. AI+ medicine.
Wall Street expects that this GTC will help Nvidia stock end its recent volatile trend and continue its strong growth momentum of more than 80% so far this year.
Related reading:Nvidia GTC 2024 unveils next week! AI+ game media is making a comeback, and Tencent and NetEase will also show their muscles
In terms of major financial reports,$WUXI APPTEC (02359.HK)$，$CHINA LIT (00772.HK)$The financial report will be released later today.
March 19
Keywords: Xiaopeng Motors, Xiaomi Group financial reports; Bank of Japan monetary policy press conference
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan held a monetary policy press conference to focus on whether it will end the 8-year negative interest rate era.
According to the data, Japan's salary increase reached 5.28% in 2024, the biggest increase in more than 30 years. A sharp increase in wages is a prerequisite for the Bank of Japan to achieve its long-term price target of 2% and end the negative interest rate policy since 2016. The report said that the Bank of Japan is making final arrangements to end the negative interest rate policy at next week's policy formulation meeting and raise short-term interest rates to the 0%-0.1% range. This is the first rate hike in 17 years. UBS pointed out in its latest research report that although there is a possibility of canceling the negative interest rate policy in March, the Bank of Japan is more likely to choose to release a policy shift signal this month and then officially implement the adjustments in April.
In terms of major financial reports,$XPeng (XPEV.US)$/$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$The US stock list will be released in pre-market time today, so investors can keep a close eye on it.
Currently, the market generally expects Xiaopeng Motor to achieve revenue of RMB 12.561 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of 144.38% over the previous year; a loss of 3.4 yuan per share, an increase in losses over the same period last year. A total of 18 analysts recently gave ratings, and the average target price was $12.75.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Results will also be announced today, and the market will pay attention to content related to Xiaomi cars.
Furthermore,$LI NING (02331.HK)$,$CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$The results will also be announced today.
March 20
Keywords：China March loan quoted interest rate (LPR) release; Tencent Holdings, Pinduoduo financial report
On Wednesday, in terms of major economic data, China will announce the March Loan Quotation Rate (LPR).
In February 1, the LPR was 3.45%, which remained unchanged. The LPR for a period of 5 years or more was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.95%, the biggest drop. In the latest medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation in March, the central bank chose to reduce the price parity and renew it. The 1-year MLF interest rate, which is the medium-term policy interest rate, remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months. The market expects the LPR to be announced on March 20 to be the same as last month.
In terms of major financial reports, today's market focus$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Released during the pre-market session with US stocks$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$Financial reports.
On the Tencent side, the market expects Q4 revenue to be RMB 157.364 billion, up 9% year on year; adjusted net profit is RMB 41,469 billion, up 40% year on year, and earnings per share are estimated at RMB 3.58 billion.
Main business expectations: ① Game business Q4 revenue is expected to increase 4% year over year; ② social networking Q4 revenue is expected to increase 1% year over year; ③ advertising business Q4 revenue is expected to increase 16% year over year; ④ fintech and enterprise service Q4 revenue is expected to increase 15% year over year.
On Pinduoduo's side, analysts generally expect Q4 revenue to be 79.965 billion yuan, up 101% year on year; adjusted net profit will be 16.834 billion yuan, up 39% year on year. In terms of specific business, analysts expect its Q4 online marketing revenue to be 44.7 billion yuan and transaction service revenue to be 35.7 billion yuan. Temu's GMV is expected to exceed $9 billion in the fourth quarter, far higher than the $5 billion in the third quarter.
Looking back at Pinduoduo's performance in the past 8 quarters, there were 7 times where the quarterly revenue exceeded market expectations; the average change in stock price after the profit was announced was 14.8%, and the probability of a rise on the same day was 75%.
Furthermore,$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$,$CHINA RES POWER (00836.HK)$,$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Financial reports will also be announced on the same day.
Today is Japan's national holiday “Spring Equinox Day,” and the Japanese stock market will be closed for one day.
March 21
Keywords: Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision, Powell press conference; initial jobless claims; CNOOC earnings report; Reddit listing
On Thursday, the world paid attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the latest interest rate bitmap, and Powell's upcoming press conference. A series of data released this week shows that US inflation will not disappear anytime soon, and inflationary pressure is stronger than expected. Analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold for the 6th time in a row, keeping the benchmark interest rate at 5.25-5.5%, but they hope to get more clues about the path of interest rate cuts. There are 3 major points worth paying attention to: Have interest rate cut expectations changed? Has the outlook for inflation changed? When and how to slow down quantitative austerity (QT)? Furthermore, the market will also focus on the 2025 interest rate cut route.
According to the median forecast of Federal Reserve officials in December, interest rates are expected to be cut by 0.25% three times in 2024. Focusing on the latest bitmap released by the Federal Reserve, there is a possibility that the number of interest rate cuts during the year will be -1. Bank of America strategists warned that only two officials would switch to cutting interest rates twice, which would stimulate the rise in US bond yields.
In terms of major data, a series of data will be released today, such as the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week, the total annualization of existing housing sales, and the monthly rate of the Chamber of Commerce's leading indicators.
The number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week ending March 9 was 209,000. The forecast was 218,000, compared with the previous value of 217,000.
In terms of major IPOs, the “US version of the Tieba”$Reddit (RDDT.US)$It will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange today.
Related reading:The “US version of Tieba” is rumored to have an IPO valuation of 6.5 billion US dollars. Are OpenAI CEO and Tencent also major shareholders?
March 22
Keywords: Japanese economic data; Meituan, China Ping An financial report
On Friday, in terms of major economic data, the Japanese government will release data such as CPI and foreign purchases of Japanese stocks for the week.
Foreign capital purchases of Japanese stocks this week reflect the number of foreign capital purchases of Japanese stocks every week. The data changes show the outflow and inflow of foreign capital into Japan. A positive value indicates a net foreign purchase of Japanese stocks (capital inflow); a negative value indicates a net sale of Japanese stocks by foreign investors (capital outflow).
In terms of major financial reports,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$The financial report will be announced today.
Dongwu Securities expects Meituan's local core business to achieve revenue of 54.4 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2023, up 25% year on year; new business revenue of 18.1 billion yuan, up 9% year on year; operating loss of 5.2 billion yuan, narrowing by 19% year on year; new business revenue of 18.1 billion yuan, up 9% year on year; and operating loss rate of 29% (38% in 22Q4).
Good luck with your investments in the new week!
Editor/Jeffrey