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一图前瞻 | 阿里、B站财报下周来袭!中概股财报迎来大考,能否为市场再“添把火”?

A preview in one image | The earnings reports for Alibaba and Bilibili are coming next week! Chinese concept stocks' earnings reports are facing a major test; can they "add fuel to the fire" for the market?

Futu News ·  Feb 13 10:06

Recently, China's assets have risen strongly. With a series of stimulus policies announced earlier, and the rise of DeepSeek, more and more foreign Institutions have joined the Bullish stance on Chinese assets. Chinese concept stocks may sound the counterattack horn this year.

Since the beginning of this year, Chinese concept Network Technology stocks have performed remarkably. $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ U.S. stocks have soared about 40%. $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ A rise of over 22%; in the Hong Kong stock market, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ it has risen nearly 42% this year. $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ All have risen by more than 20%.

Starting next week, Alibaba, Bilibili, and several other star Network Technology stocks will release their latest quarterly earnings. The Capital Markets are once again focusing on Chinese concept stocks; will this earnings season bring surprises to the market.

Many investment Institutions have previously released forward-looking Research Reports, generally expecting that the performances of Chinese Network Technology stocks such as Alibaba and Bilibili will improve. Futu News has compiled some performance forecasts for investors' reference:

Currently, the market generally predicts that $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ / $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ In the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, revenue reached 278.716 billion yuan, a 7% increase compared to the same period last year; EPS was 2.06 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204%.

JPMorgan expects that Alibaba will benefit from the recovery in e-commerce GMV and cost control, leading to an improvement in profitability. Total revenue for the third fiscal quarter is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year, which is 1 percentage point higher than market expectations. Taotian Group's adjusted profits are expected to return to positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 6%.

Bank of America Securities estimates that Alibaba's revenue for the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year will grow by 9% year-on-year to 283.5 billion yuan, which is 2% higher than market expectations, with core Taotian Group's revenue expected to rise 7% year-on-year. It is also expected that customer management revenue (CMR) in the Chinese market will increase by 7% year-on-year to 98.8 billion yuan, mainly benefiting from the Singles' Day Sales promotion, home appliance subsidy programs, and ongoing user engagement and experience upgrades, leading to a faster growth in Alibaba's gross merchandise volume (GMV).

In addition, investment institutions have also released performance forecasts for other Network Technology stocks.

Nomura recently published a research report predicting $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ / $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ The latest quarterly revenue is expected to grow by 21% year-on-year to 7.7 billion yuan, with Non-GAAP Operating profit projected to reach 0.4 billion yuan, and the Non-GAAP Operating profit margin expected to reach 5.2%, mainly driven by the strong performance of online games and advertising during the period, which improved operating leverage.

Nomura's previous predictions indicate that $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Holdings is expected to continue its growth momentum in the fourth quarter of 2024, with total revenue projected to grow by 8% year-on-year, which is basically in line with market expectations. Earnings per share are expected to increase significantly by 28%, exceeding market predictions by 4%, mainly benefiting from the continuous expansion of gross margin. The online gaming segment is expected to perform well, with fourth-quarter revenue projected to grow by 15.6% year-on-year; the advertising business may see slower sequential growth, with fourth-quarter revenue expected to increase by 13% to 33.8 billion yuan year-on-year.

Nomura also predicts that $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ In the fourth quarter, total revenue grew by 20% year-on-year to 88.13 billion yuan, and profits surged by 197% year-on-year to 9.45 billion yuan, but may face challenges of slowing growth in 2025, due to a decline in the growth rate of the takeout business and intensified competition in the in-store sector.

Multiple major financial institutions are Bullish on the future performance of Chinese concept stocks.

Regarding the future performance of Chinese concept stocks, international financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Blackrock have expressed optimism about Assets in China, believing that DeepSeek's breakthrough low-cost AI model has become a "catalyst" for global investors to reassess Chinese Assets. With the continuous recovery of the macroeconomy, the current low market valuations, and the influence of related innovative technology catalysts, Chinese Assets are gaining attention in the global market.

HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management's Chief Investment Officer for China, Kuang Zheng, stated that DeepSeek's technological breakthrough reflects that China's large language models have entered the stage of deep reasoning, and the innovation capability has attracted significant market attention, which may affect the global AI Industry landscape. The success of DeepSeek may become a catalyst for further promoting technological innovation in private enterprises in China, leading to more creative breakthroughs in the Technology field and boosting investor confidence in the Chinese stock market.

Goldman Sachs recently released a Research Report stating that DeepSeek's rise has brought opportunities for mid- to long-term value reassessment for Chinese concept Technology stocks. Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating on the MSCI Chinese Index, expecting the index to rise by 14% this year. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the rise of DeepSeek signifies that the development of the AI industry is shifting from the Hardware infrastructure layer to the Software application layer; in the field of AI Software, Chinese concept Technology stocks have a significant advantage, with the profit share of Software technology in the MSCI Chinese Index being as high as 37%, while the Market Cap share is 32%.

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编辑/jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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