In just four years, the former 'first stock of the hotpot chain' $XIABUXIABU (00520.HK)$ has entered the ranks of 'penny stocks' from its historical high of 26.9 Hong Kong dollars.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, XIABUXIABU's stock price has fluctuated upward since its listing in 2014, reaching a historical high of 26.9 Hong Kong dollars in February 2021. Shortly after, the company's stock price turned downward; although it rebounded slightly in 2022, it has continued to decline in 2023 and 2024, with the stock price even dropping to a historical low of 0.68 Hong Kong dollars in 2024. Since 2025, the company's stock price has been hovering around the 1 Hong Kong dollar mark, firmly earning the title of 'penny stock.'

Adding insult to injury, the company recently issued another profit warning, indicating that the losses for the 2024 fiscal year have further widened compared to the same period in 2023.

With stock prices and performance facing continuous setbacks, where will XIABUXIABU go from here?

With market consumption being weak, XIABUXIABU's losses continue.

XIABUXIABU successfully went public on the Main Board of HKEX in 2014, known in the industry as the "first stock of chain Dining". From the beginning, the company operated with a group management model, with the small hotpot brand "XIABUXIABU" and the mid-to-high-end hotpot brand "Coucu" as the main contributors to the company's revenue. As of June 30, 2024, the group operates 1,072 Restaurants globally.

Since its listing, XIABUXIABU's performance has been quite impressive, with revenue steadily increasing from 2.202 billion yuan to 4.734 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) between 2014 and 2018, achieving a compound annual growth rate of about 21%. Net income grew from 0.141 billion yuan to 0.463 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of about 35%.

However, the good times did not last long. Starting in 2019, XIABUXIABU's net income began to decline, and in 2021, the company recorded its first annual loss. According to data, in 2021, 2022, and 2023, the company lost 0.293 billion yuan, 0.353 billion yuan, and 0.194 billion yuan respectively, with a total cumulative loss of 0.84 billion yuan over three years.

According to the company's latest profit warning, revenue is expected to decline in 2024 and losses will further expand. The company anticipates annual revenue of 4.8 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of about 20% compared to the previous year, while the previous year's net loss was 0.19 billion yuan, and the anticipated annual net loss is expected to widen to 0.39 billion yuan to 0.41 billion yuan, marking the largest loss since its listing.

In response, XIABUXIABU stated that the reasons for the widening losses stem from two aspects: first, due to intensified market competition and weak consumer spending, the revenue of the company's subordinate brands declined year-on-year, with the mid-to-high-end brand Coucu still in deficit. Second, the company incurred approximately 0.26 billion yuan in losses due to store closures and impairment losses.

The high-end brand "Coucu" has encountered a downturn.

In 2016, XIABUXIABU launched the high-end brand "Coucu" to explore new Business growth, pioneering a new model of hotpot + tea beverages, which complements XIABUXIABU's offerings. It is understood that the per capita consumption price at Coucu is twice that of XIABUXIABU. At that time, the higher customer unit price not only did not impede Coucu's expansion but instead helped achieve an ideal turnover rate, making it a major revenue contributor for XIABUXIABU and paving the way for its subsequent high-end plans.

However, in recent years, Coucu's turnover rate and same-store sales growth rate have continued to encounter a downturn.

According to the earnings reports, from 2019 to 2023, the table turnover rates for XIABUXIABU were 2.9, 2.5, 2.5, 1.9, and 2.0, which are below the industry average of 3. In terms of same-store sales, XIABUXIABU has experienced four consecutive years of negative growth, with same-store sales growth rates of -9.5%, -0.9%, -22%, and -9.7% from 2020 to 2023.

Some analysts point out that the continued low table turnover rate for XIABUXIABU may be related to its persistently high average customer spending. In 2022, as the dining industry gradually recovered, XIABUXIABU's table turnover rate fell below 2, while the average customer spending reached a peak of 150.9 yuan in recent years. In 2023, the table turnover rate for XIABUXIABU returned to 2.0, and the average customer spending decreased to 142.3 yuan.

It is worth mentioning that in September 2022, the company launched the "Chenshao" brand, attempting to enter the relatively untapped dining sector of BBQ, aiming to create a third profit engine for the company following the XIABUXIABU and XIABUXIABU brands. The company set the average customer spending for "Chenshao" at 250 yuan, significantly higher than XIABUXIABU's 60 yuan and the 150 yuan of XIABUXIABU. Unfortunately, amid weak consumer sentiment, the previously aggressively expanded "Chenshao" has now vanished from the company's earnings reports, becoming a "non-existent entity".

In order to retain customers, XIABUXIABU has also announced the implementation of a paid membership system. In May 2023, the company officially launched a 208 yuan unlimited eating membership card, meaning it will achieve a dual revenue model of "normal operation + paid membership." The company previously predicted that paid memberships could bring in at least 0.6 billion yuan in membership fees, which would become a new growth point for the company.

However, in practice, the performance of the membership system has not only been below expectations but has also encountered significant public relations difficulties. According to reports, some consumers have complained that promised discounts when applying for the "unlimited eating card," such as "50% off every Tuesday" and "half price on Wednesday for members," were unilaterally canceled without prior notice, infringing on consumers' legal rights. Additionally, some consumers faced obstacles when requesting refunds, as the refund amounts were forcibly deducted from already used coupons or gifts at their original prices, leading to accusations against XIABUXIABU of having "unfair terms."

The policy "stimulus" continues.

Amid multiple risks, how XIABUXIABU can break through and rejuvenate itself has attracted much attention. In response, XIABUXIABU stated that in the face of market changes, the company is taking measures from various aspects, including optimizing the supply chain to lower average procurement prices; implementing a new logistics center to reduce delivery costs; expanding into takeout services; and closing inefficient restaurants.

At the same time, market policies are also actively injecting a "stimulus" into the dining industry.

Previously, cities like Shanghai and Chengdu actively issued dining consumer vouchers to invigorate the dining market. At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce held on March 13, the spokesperson stated that this year, the Ministry of Commerce will cooperate with relevant departments to carry out the "Chinese Cuisine Festival" in 2025, themed "Enjoy Chinese Cuisine, Create a Better Life," launching over 120 special dining promotional activities, guiding various regions to combine traditional festivals, peak consumption seasons, movie prime times, major events, and cultural activities to create a matrix of dining consumption activities, cultivating new hotspots for dining consumption.

According to Research Reports from CITIC SEC, the central government has a clear emphasis on domestic demand, and dining, as a representative of cyclical sectors, directly benefits and has a significant rebound potential. Leading brands in the terminal dining segment have been the first to raise prices, reflecting a generally stable competitive landscape, with a low likelihood of intensified price wars. Dongxing stated that dining consumption is expected to boost. There is optimism regarding future policies promoting reforms in the consumer environment, trading environment, and policy environment, as well as overall improvements in the performance of the food and beverage industry. Particularly in dining consumption, with the implementation of plans, consumption related to tourism, shopping in business districts, and offline experiences will see a boost, having a noticeable pull on dining consumption. At the same time, it is anticipated that local consumption subsidies will further enhance subsidies for dining, which will provide positive help to the dining industry.

Overall, XIABUXIABU's performance is under pressure, and its former main brand "Cou Cou" has become a burden on the company’s performance. With policies pushing the industry towards positive development, the external growth environment for XIABUXIABU looks promising. However, whether the company can seize the opportunity and successfully turn around remains a point of further attention for investors.

Editor/rice