Hot news

• Goldman Sachs adjusted the expected number of times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024 from four to three

Goldman Sachs Group economists have adjusted their forecasts for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Currently, interest rates are expected to be cut three times, not four, this year. Goldman Sachs economists such as Jan Hatzius wrote in the March 17 report that the main reason for the downward forecast is a slight upward trend in the inflation path. They still expect to cut interest rates for the first time in June, and four interest rate cuts in 2025. The last one will occur in 2026. The forecast for the final interest rate will remain unchanged at 3.25%-3.5%.

• Interest rate swap prices show that the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in June is less than 50%

Bond traders continue to lower their expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, and no longer think it is likely that they will cut interest rates in June. Interest rate swap contract pricing shows that the market's interest rate forecast for the Federal Reserve has risen. The interest rate for the June contract is around 5.21%, which means it is less than 25 basis points lower than the current level of 5.33%.

• The Bank of Japan will end the policy of controlling yield curves and buying ETFs on Tuesday

“Nikkei Shimbun” did not reveal sources that the Bank of Japan will end yield curve control and risk asset purchase policies on Tuesday. The Japanese newspaper said that the Bank of Japan will also end negative short-term policy interest rates on Tuesday. The report said that the bank will continue to buy some Japanese government bonds to prevent yields from soaring, but it will cancel the yield curve control policy framework aimed at lowering interest rates.

• BlackRock Strategist: Optimistic US Stock Sentiment Will Continue

BlackRock strategists said that as inflation cools down, the US market is digesting a positive macro background. They believe that optimistic risk appetite will not be “seriously challenged” in the next few months. In their market review, they pointed out that the market believes inflation will cool down enough for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times this year and continue to cut interest rates. “We believe optimism will continue as inflation continues to fall. That's why we continue to be optimistic about US stocks and focus on the subject of artificial intelligence, as technology drives corporate profit growth.”

• US homebuilders' confidence rises to an eight-month high as the number of second-hand properties for sale is limited

Given the limited number of second-hand homes for sale, US homebuilders' confidence climbed to an eight-month high in March as mortgage interest rates spurred demand from a peak. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) /Wells Fargo's Homebuilder Confidence Index rose 3 points to 51 this month, according to data released on Monday. The median estimate of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 48. Builders' confidence has been improving so far this year, but is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The expected sales target for the next six months rose to 62, the highest since June. NAHB's potential buyer traffic and current sales rose to a seven-month high.

Resumption of US stock trading

• The three major US stock indices collectively closed higher, and Tesla rose more than 6% to create the biggest one-day gain in the year

The three major US stock indices collectively closed higher. The NASDAQ rose 0.82%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.63%, and the Dow rose 0.2%.

Large technology stocks generally rose,$ Tesla (TSLA.US) $The increase was more than 6%, the biggest one-day increase during the year. The company raised the price of the Model Y in parts of Europe.$google-A (GOOGL.US) $An increase of more than 4%,$apple (AAPL.US) $Negotiations are underway to embed Google's Gemini artificial intelligence engine into the iPhone.$Meta Platforms (META.US) $,$Netflix (NFLX.US) $An increase of more than 2%,$Amazon (AMZN.US) $,$ Microsoft (MSFT.US) $,$apple (AAPL.US) $,$Nvidia (NVDA.US) $There was a slight increase.

Popular Chinese securities had mixed ups and downs, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.63%.$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $An increase of more than 4%,$Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US) $,$Jingdong (JD.US) $An increase of more than 1%,$Baidu (BIDU.US) $,$BILI.US (BILI.US) $,$Tencent Music (TME.US) $,$Alibaba (BABA.US) $There was a slight increase.$Ideal Auto (LI.US) $fell by more than 12%,$Weibo (WB.US) $It fell more than 4%,$Manbang (YMM.US) $It fell more than 3%,$NetEase (NTES.US) $It fell more than 1%,$IQ.US (IQ.US) $,$NIO (NIO.US) $,$Vipshop (VIPS.US) $A slight decline.

• Nvidia launches new AI processor with 208 billion transistors, which can run several times faster

$Nvidia (NVDA.US) $CEO Hwang In-hoon presented a new chip aimed at solidifying the company's dominance in artificial intelligence computing. The company said at the GTC conference in San Jose, California, that the new processor, called Blackwell, can be several times faster in processing models that support artificial intelligence. This includes the technology development process known as the training phase and the technical operation process called the inference phase. The Blackwell chip, which consists of 208 billion transistors, will be the cornerstone of new computers and other products deployed by the world's largest data center operators such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle under Alphabet Inc. Nvidia closed slightly higher, falling more than 1% after the market.

• Tesla surged more than 6% “after a long time”! Model Y price increases, Musk defends ketamine smoking

$ Tesla (TSLA.US) $After announcing price increases for Model Y electric vehicles in the US and some European countries, the stock price closed up 6.3% on Monday, the biggest one-day increase in the last six months. Meanwhile, Musk admitted that he took ketamine to relieve his low mood. Faced with media questions, he insisted that his medication was reasonable and had no negative impact on his work.

• Apple is discussing with Google to allow Gemini to provide AI services for iPhones, and is also negotiating cooperation with OpenAI

According to people familiar with the matter,$apple (AAPL.US) $The company is in negotiations to$google-A (GOOGL.US) $The Gemini AI engine is embedded in the iPhone, which lays the foundation for a major agreement that will shake up the AI industry. Gemini is a set of generative artificial intelligence models for Google. The two companies are actively negotiating for Apple to license Gemini, Google's generative artificial intelligence model, to support some of the new features of this year's iPhone software. People familiar with the matter said that the two parties have yet to decide on the terms or brand of the artificial intelligence agreement, nor have they finalized how the agreement will be implemented. Apple also recently had discussions with OpenAI and is considering using its model. Apple closed slightly higher, while Google closed up more than 4%.

• ExxonMobil is willing to negotiate plans with Chevron to acquire Hess

The two oil giants are currently debating the impact of this deal on a major offshore oil project in Guyana. Woods' words mark$ExxonMobil (XOM.US) $After applying for arbitration with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris (International Chamber of Commerce), it was publicly stated for the first time that it was willing to cooperate with$Chevron (CVX.US) $Discuss this issue. Woods said, “The channels for conversation are still open. “It's a business issue, not a personal one. We're not trying to block the Chevron and Hess deal. We are working to preserve our rights to the Guyanese assets we have developed.”

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui bought Xiaomi and Kuaishou all exceeded HK$300 million, and sold the ideal car for nearly HK$300 million

On March 18 (Monday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$2,931 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) $,$Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) $,$China Mobile (00941.HK) $Received net purchases of HK$332 million, HK$324 million and HK$302 million respectively;

$IDEAL CAR-W (02015.HK) $,$Medicinal Biology (02269.HK) $,$China Shenhua (01088.HK) $Net sales were HK$292 million, HK$125 million and HK$119 million respectively.

• Evergrande Real Estate's two-year financial fraud inflated revenue by 564 billion yuan and inflated profit by 92 billion yuan

According to administrative penalties from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and advance notice of market entry bans received by Evergrande Real Estate, there are false records in the 2019 and 2020 annual reports disclosed by Evergrande Real Estate. Evergrande Real Estate's financial fraud through early revenue recognition resulted in Evergrande Properties' inflated revenue of 213.989 billion yuan in 2019, accounting for 50.14% of current revenue, corresponding inflated costs of 173.267 billion yuan, and inflated profit of 40.722 billion yuan, accounting for 63.31% of total current profit; in 2020, Evergrande Real Estate inflated revenue of 35.157 billion yuan, accounting for 78.54% of current revenue, corresponding inflated cost of 298.88%.

Today's attention

Keywords: Xiaopeng Motors, Xiaomi Group financial reports; Bank of Japan monetary policy press conference

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan held a monetary policy press conference to focus on whether it will end the 8-year negative interest rate era.

According to the data, Japan's salary increase reached 5.28% in 2024, the biggest increase in more than 30 years. A sharp increase in wages is a prerequisite for the Bank of Japan to achieve its long-term price target of 2% and end the negative interest rate policy since 2016. The report said that the Bank of Japan is making final arrangements to end the negative interest rate policy at next week's policy formulation meeting and raise short-term interest rates to the 0%-0.1% range. This is the first rate hike in 17 years. UBS pointed out in its latest research report that although there is a possibility of canceling the negative interest rate policy in March, the Bank of Japan is more likely to choose to release a policy shift signal this month and then officially implement the adjustments in April.

In terms of major financial reports,$Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US) $/$Xiaopeng Motor-W (09868.HK) $The US stock list will be released in pre-market time today, so investors can keep a close eye on it.

Currently, the market generally expects Xiaopeng Motor to achieve revenue of RMB 12.561 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of 144.38% over the previous year; a loss of 3.4 yuan per share, an increase in losses over the same period last year. A total of 18 analysts recently gave ratings, and the average target price was $12.75.

$Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) $Results will also be announced today, and the market will pay attention to content related to Xiaomi cars.

Furthermore,$Li Ning (02331.HK) $,$China Unicom (00762.HK) $The results will also be announced today.

Futubull Chen read:

The success of an investment should be measured by long-term returns or long-term market price growth, rather than the difference in price earned over a short period of time.

— Benjamin Graham

edit/lambor