Recently, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has been simmering, global stock market volatility has intensified, and risk sentiment has reignited, pushing commodity prices higher. At noon Beijing time today, Russian media reported that the Russian-backed independent region of eastern Ukraine on Thursday accused the Kiev government of shelling their territory with military mortars, violating an agreement aimed at ending the conflict. The news accelerated the global stock market plunge, panic index VIX futures short-term sharp pull, while oil prices, gold prices are both higher, related stocks rose sharply.

Wall Street banks also unanimously reminded U. S. stocks of the risk of a pullback. Morgan Stanley is worried that the war could plunge the economy into recession, posing a major risk to the stock market; BofA reported that "sell as you can" sentiment hung over the credit markets; and Goldman Sachs Group strategists warned that if there was a war between Russia and Ukraine, the blow to the stock market will be worse than during the Crimean War in 2014.

On the other hand, institutions are generally optimistic about safe-haven crude oil and gold. This article will sort out the relevant risk aversion targets for Niu friends' reference.

1. Demand resumes, supply is insufficient, and oil prices exceed 100 US dollars.

With the improvement of the epidemic and air travel, global oil demand has returned to normal, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil demand to increase further this year. However, oil prices continue to rise because of persistent supply shortages and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which threatens European energy consumption.

Spot Brent crude hit $100.80 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time in eight years, according to spot Brent Global Platts. It is worth mentioning that this is the most important crude oil price in the world because it is at the core of many oil derivatives prices and sets a benchmark for trading millions of barrels of crude oil a day.

Wall Street institutions are also collectively bullish. Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley believe that oil prices will exceed $100,000,000; Bank of America Corporation estimates that oil prices will reach $120,000,000 a barrel in the summer; JPMorgan Chase & Co shouted in January that international oil prices could soar to $150,000,000 in the first quarter of 2022; BNP Paribas raised the average price of Brent and WTI crude oil by $6.50 in 2022 and $10.50 in 2023.

Energy-related stocks and funds in the US stock market performed strongly under high oil prices. In the Futuo Niuniu oil and gas integration industry sector, more than 80% of the stocks are up more than 10% year-to-date.$Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.US) $、$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR.US) $及$Cenovus Energy (CVE.US) $The annual increase is close to 30%.

2. How to hedge against the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, Goldman Sachs Group highlighted gold.

Gold prices have soared since the start of the year, driven by the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine and US inflation, breaking through $1800 an ounce in January and hitting a three-month high of $1870 on Monday. While many commodities will be fundamentally affected by the Russia-Ukraine incident, Goldman Sachs Group analyst Currie and his team believe gold will be the ultimate safe haven in a geopolitical crisis.

Goldman Sachs Group summed up the changes in oil and gold prices during previous periods of geo-friction and concluded that geopolitical events in which the United States is directly involved tend to have a greater positive impact on gold. This may be because the dollar itself often acts as a safe haven when tensions arise in other parts of the world. But when the US itself is affected, investors use gold as a last resort.

Us gold sector concept stocks have also risen against the market since the beginning of the year. Gold ETF$SPDR gold ETF (GLD.US) $has risen sharply recently, which is one of the most liquid commodity ETF and remains resilient in a persistently high inflation environment.

3. VIX has good risk aversion effect, but its vomiting speed is fast.

VIX reflects the degree of panic in the market through derivatives prices and is very sensitive to risk events, so that investors can hedge the systemic risk caused by large fluctuations in the market to a certain extent by properly long VIX-related ETF. However, its own volatility is much higher than that of other safe-haven assets, so there is a certain risk in terms of price volatility itself. The related targets are:Short VIX short-term futures ETF-ProShares (SVXY.US) $、$ProShares Ultra VIX short-term futures ETF (UVXY.US) $。

4. Other targets

In times of geopolitical tension, holding assets such as US dollars and treasury bonds also play a role in defending against risks. The ETF related to the US dollar and treasury bonds in the US stock market and Hong Kong stock market is worth paying attention to. In addition, Adrian Zuercher, chief investment officer of UBS, said the situation in Ukraine was still risky and he preferred oil and the yen as hedges.

USD ETF:$ETF-PowerShares DB (UUP.US) $、$A Southern dollars (03096.HK) $

National debt ETF:ETF-iShares (AGG.US) $US Total Bond Market、$iShares Asustek Core US Treasury ETF (GOVT.US) $、$PP US Library (03077.HK) $、More than 20-year treasury bonds per day triple long ETF-Direxion (TMF.US) $。

Yen ETF:$yen ETF-CurrencyShares (FXY.US) $