Hot News

• Federal Reserve's March decision: continue to "keep still", still expected to cut interest rates twice this year.

The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts for two consecutive meetings, in line with market expectations. The statement removed the language regarding balanced risks to employment and inflation, stating that uncertainty in the economic outlook has increased. The method to slow down balance sheet reduction is to reduce the monthly redemption limit of U.S. Treasury bonds from 25 billion dollars to 5 billion dollars, while the agency MBS redemption limit remains unchanged. This decision had one dissenting vote, with Fed Governor Waller wishing to maintain the current pace of balance sheet reduction. The median interest rate forecast remains unchanged, still expecting two cuts of 25 basis points each this year and next.

In the dot plot, the number of those expecting no rate cuts this year increased from one to four, while those expecting two cuts decreased from ten to nine, and those expecting three cuts decreased from three to two. The GDP growth expectations for this year and the next three years were lowered, with this year's growth rate reduced from 2.1% to 1.7%, a slight increase in this year's unemployment rate to 4.4%, and the PCE inflation expectations for this year and next were raised, with the core PCE inflation expectation seeing the largest increase, rising from 2.5% to 2.8%.

During Powell's press conference, U.S. stocks accelerated their rebound, with the three major U.S. stock indices hitting daily highs. U.S. Treasury prices spiked, the yield on two-year Treasury bonds plummeted below 4.0%. Gold reached a new high, cryptocurrencies rebounded, and the dollar narrowed its intraday gains.

• Powell: The Federal Reserve's "baseline" forecast is that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be temporary.

On March 19th, Wednesday, Eastern Time, at the press conference following the Federal Reserve FOMC monetary policy meeting, when asked how much of the Fed's adjustment in inflation expectations was caused by tariffs, Powell responded that it was difficult to analyze to what extent inflation was driven by tariffs, but the Federal Reserve would try to figure it out: "Clearly, a good part of it comes from tariffs." However, Powell stated that Trump's increase in tariffs would delay the progress of curbing inflation this year, but the basic forecast of the Federal Reserve is that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be temporary.

Powell said it is still too early to determine whether the initial inflation impact related to tariffs can be ignored. He pointed out that if long-term inflation expectations can be well controlled, the Federal Reserve can overlook one-time shocks from policies like tariffs. Powell believes that the recent rise in inflation is largely related to tariffs but noted that long-term inflation expectations have stabilized, allowing the Federal Reserve to ignore them.

• In January, the top three creditors of the USA all increased their Holdings of US debt, while all foreign capital experienced a net Outflow of 48.8 billion USD.

On March 19th, Wednesday, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released the International Capital Flow Report (TIC), showing that the number one "creditor" Japan and the second largest "creditor" China both increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds in January. Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds increased by $19.5 billion in January, reaching $1.0793 trillion, reversing the downward trend of the previous months. Mainland China increased its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $1.8 billion in January, to $760.8 billion. In January, the total net outflow of all foreign capital, including long-term securities, U.S. short-term securities, and bank funding streams, was $48.8 billion.

• Bank of America Asia Fund Manager Survey: Institutions' sentiment towards Chinese assets has surged, with half already starting to build positions.

Under the hot expectations, Asian fund managers have also begun to actively position themselves in Chinese assets. Surveys indicate that based on the clear signals of economic stabilization and policy easing, 50% of institutional investors have begun to build positions in Chinese assets, a significant increase from 32% in the February survey. Additionally, 19% of investors are waiting for clearer economic signals. In line with market trends, AI, chips, and the Internet continue to be overwhelming investment themes favored by Asian institutional investors in China. This survey was conducted from March 7 to March 13 this year, with a total of 205 fund managers interviewed, managing a total of $477 billion in assets.

• UBS Group: expects that global stock markets have another 9% upside before the end of the year, with emerging markets growing by 16%.

UBS Group strategists expect that Global Stocks will continue to rebound this year, maintaining a year-end target for the MSCI Global Index at 910 points, implying about 9% upside potential. The strategists led by Andrew Garthwait stated that tactical Indicators are moderately optimistic, with AI expected to enhance productivity, while Crediting spreads, ISM, and PMI all support Stock risk premiums, even as Bond yields rise. The strategists anticipate a 5% growth in EPS for the MSCI Global Index by 2025, a 3% growth in EPS for the European Stoxx Index, and a 16% growth for Emerging Markets; Europe remains overweight, with about 6% upside potential for the Stoxx 600 Index by year-end; preconditions for a bear market have not yet formed, and so far, only the USA, not Global economic growth, is under threat.

Post-Market Trading

• The Federal Reserve's dovish decision boosted the market, with both the Nasdaq and S&P rising over 1%.

On Wednesday (March 19), driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish decision, all three major U.S. indices closed higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq both rising over 1%.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.92%, closing at 41,964.63 points; the S&P 500 Index increased by 1.08%, closing at 5,675.29 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed by 1.41%, closing at 17,750.79 points, hitting over 2% at one point during the session.

Large tech stocks collectively rose, with Apple up 1.2%, Microsoft up 1.12%, NVIDIA up 1.81%, Amazon up 1.41%, Google Class C up 2.22%, Meta up 0.29%, Broadcom up 3.66%, and Tesla up 4.68%.

Popular China Concept Stocks had mixed results, with Xpeng Motors rising 5.12%, TAL Education up 1.26%, Alibaba up 0.32%, and New Oriental up 0.19%. Baidu fell by 4.17%, Tencent Music dropped by 2.52%, PDD Holdings declined by 0.69%, NIO dropped by 0.39%, Li Auto fell by 0.36%, and JD.com fell by 0.2%.

Bitcoin surpassed $86,000, and cryptocurrency concept stocks rebounded collectively, with Strategy rising over 7%, Coinbase increasing nearly 5%, and MARA Holdings rising nearly 4%.

• Tesla rebounded over 4% after obtaining the 'door opener' for California Robotaxi.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Recently approved in California, starting passenger operations, marking an important step for this electric vehicle company towards providing Online Car-hailing services. According to reports last month, Tesla applied for this permit to launch its promised Online Car-hailing business, opening up new revenue sources and competing with $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ 、 $Lyft Inc(LYFT.US)$ and Waymo. Musk stated that Tesla would launch its Self-Driving Cars Online Car-hailing service in Austin in June and plans to roll it out in California by the end of the year, but did not disclose specific details. As of the time of publication, Tesla's shares rose by over 1%.

• NVIDIA shares rose nearly 2%, as Huang Renxun responded to the impact of DeepSeek, stating that the demand for computing power will be pushed higher, making chips even more scarce.

On Wednesday local time (March 19), Huang Renxun stated during a meeting at the GTC conference with Analysts and investors that the previous understanding of "R1 possibly reducing chip demand" was completely incorrect, and future computing demands could become much higher. Huang Renxun believes that these major clients need better chips to generate more revenue from their infrastructure, rather than using cheap alternatives to save costs. He added that CEOs are very good at math, so they will not simply focus on costs. As of the time of publication, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ In after-hours trading, up nearly 1%.

• Shopify closed up 8%, deciding to move its U.S. listing location from NYSE to Nasdaq.

E-commerce giant $Shopify(SHOP.US)$ The company announced on Wednesday that it will proactively move its listing location from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq Global Select Market. The e-commerce company anticipates that its Class A shares will stop trading on the NYSE at the close of business on Friday, March 28, and begin trading on Nasdaq on March 31. Shopify's listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange remains unaffected, with its Class A shares continuing to trade under the stock code "SHOP" on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. At the close, Shopify was up 8%.

• The EU antitrust regulatory agency requires Apple to open its ecosystem to competitors.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ On Wednesday, the EU antitrust regulators ordered Apple to open its closed ecosystem to competitors. The EU detailed how to open according to the group's rules, and the investigations and fines that could result from non-compliance. The first order from the EU requires Apple to allow competitors' Smart Phones, headphones, and Virtual Reality headset manufacturers to use its technology and mobile operating system, so they can seamlessly connect with iPhones and iPads. The second order provides a detailed process and timeline for Apple's response to application developers' interoperability requests. If regulators find that Apple has not complied with the orders, the company could face investigations, with fines potentially reaching 10% of its global annual sales. Apple responded that the EU's actions would harm users and help competitors.

• Boeing rose nearly 7%, and Japan Airlines plans to order 17 Boeing 737-8 and 11 Airbus A321neo aircraft.

$Boeing (BA.US)$ Closing up nearly 7%, the largest gain since January 28. On the news front, Japan Airlines announced plans to order an additional 17 Boeing 737-8 aircraft for its domestic route fleet. Japan Airlines had already ordered 21 Boeing 737-8 aircraft in March 2023. Additionally, Japan Airlines plans to order 11 Airbus A321neo aircraft to replace Boeing 767, primarily for routes between Tokyo Haneda Airport and other destinations.

• Super Micro Computer rose over 1% after hours, launching new AI solutions.

Super Micro Computer announced new systems and rack solutions based on NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra platform, equipped with NVIDIA HGX B300 NVL16 and NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 platforms. Super Micro Computer and NVIDIA's new AI solutions enhance leadership in the AI field by providing groundbreaking performance to meet the most demanding computing resources needed for AI workloads, including AI inference, Agentic AI, and video inference applications. As of the report, $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ After hours, the stock continued to rise over 1%.

• Roku has risen over 7%, with Trump Media Technology Group launching the Truth+ streaming service on Roku.

$Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.US)$ Announced the successful launch of its Truth+ streaming application, available on Roku. $Roku Inc(ROKU.US)$ Truth+ will provide family-friendly programming for Americans seeking an alternative to so-called "biased" news and "woke" entertainment. The Truth+ platform offers news broadcasting, entertainment, weather updates, documentaries, and children's programs, among others. By the close of trading, Roku had risen over 7%.

Top 20 by trading volume in the U.S. stock market.

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• North investors spent nearly 11.8 billion HKD on Hong Kong stocks! Increased holdings in Alibaba by over 1.4 billion HKD, while selling Meituan for over 0.8 billion HKD.

On March 19 (Wednesday), the southbound funds had a net purchase of Hong Kong stocks amounting to 11.785 billion HKD.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG(02800.HK)$、$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$、$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$Respectively had a net Buy of 3.877 billion Hong Kong dollars, 2.041 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 1.437 billion Hong Kong dollars.

$MEITUAN-W(03690.HK)$、$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK)$Net sales of 0.855 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.724 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.279 billion Hong Kong dollars were recorded respectively.

• Tencent conference call: AI is a key investment area, while providing current returns to Shareholders through dividends and Share Buyback.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Executives stated that capital expenditures are mainly used for procuring GPUs, which have brought high returns. With the breakthrough in DeepSeek technology, the efficiency of GPU resource utilization has improved, eliminating the need for large-scale additional GPU purchases as originally anticipated. AI-enhanced technology has increased advertisers' ROI, helping Tencent's advertising growth rate surpass the industry level. At the same time, AI also supports the gaming business, where deferred revenue (mainly from games) increased by double digits year-on-year at the end of last year, expected to gradually convert to reported revenue over this and next year. AI has become a key investment area while also considering shareholder returns.

• Ping An Insurance: in 2024, net income attributable to the parent company increased by 47.8%, with dividends growing for 13 consecutive years.

$Ping An Insurance (02318.HK)$ It was announced that in 2024, the operating profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders reached 121.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; net income attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 126.607 billion yuan, a significant growth of 47.8%; revenue was 1028.925 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with an annualized operating ROE of 12.7%; it is proposed to distribute a final cash dividend of 1.62 yuan per share at the end of 2024, with an annual cash dividend of 2.55 yuan per share, a year-on-year increase of 5%, a cash dividend ratio of 37.9%, and the total dividend amount has maintained growth for 13 consecutive years.

Today's focus.

Keywords: LPR, Japanese stock market holiday, PDD Holdings/Micron/CHINA MOBILE performance.

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, investors can focus on China's one-year loan market Quote as of March 20, the number of initial unemployment claims in the USA for the week ending March 15, the USA's fourth-quarter current account, and the March Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index.

In terms of financial events, the Central Bank of Brazil announced its interest rate decision, the Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision, and the Swedish Riksbank announced its interest rate decision.

In terms of Earnings Reports, $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK)$ 、 $CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK)$ 、 $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ Performance will be announced soon; in addition, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 $Nike (NKE.US)$ 、 $FedEx (FDX.US)$ will announce their earnings after the market closes.

Futubull Morning Reading:

Do not buy stocks blindly without understanding; solid preparation is needed before investing to achieve success!
—William O'Neil

Editor/Rocky