竞争焦点的转变由比亚迪今年2月发布的“天神之眼”（God's Eye）自动驾驶系统引发。此前，特斯拉的FSD被广泛认为是最优秀的L2+级自动驾驶系统，远超比亚迪在中国同行的辅助驾驶产品。但随着比亚迪推出其“天神之眼”自动驾驶辅助系统，原有的市场格局被彻底打破。
Barclays believes that while Tesla has a leading position in autonomous driving technology, it faces dual challenges of regulatory supervision and market competition in the China market. Moreover, the price of Tesla's FSD is as high as 64,000 yuan, which is significantly less competitively priced compared to BYD's free "Tianshen Eye."
For a long time in the past, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ the competition with $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ has mainly focused on who can win the title of "King of BEV Sales," but by 2025, the battle between the two giants has quietly shifted to the field of autonomous driving.
Barclays' Jiong Shao analyst team latest Research Reports point out that as autonomous driving technology becomes a new battleground in China's electric vehicle market, the confrontation between Tesla and BYD has evolved from a simple sales competition to a comprehensive competition in autonomous driving technology, with BYD's prominent performance in price advantages posing a severe challenge to Tesla.
The shift in competitive focus was triggered by BYD's announcement of the "God's Eye" autonomous driving system in February of this year. Previously, Tesla's FSD was widely regarded as the best L2+ level autonomous driving system, far exceeding the assisted driving products of its Chinese competitors. However, with BYD launching its "God's Eye" autonomous driving assistance system, the original market pattern has been completely disrupted.
Although Tesla holds a leading position in autonomous driving technology, it faces dual challenges of regulatory oversight and market competition in the Chinese market. Moreover, with Tesla's FSD priced at 64,000 yuan, its price competitiveness is clearly insufficient compared to BYD's free "God's Eye" offering.
BYD's "Eye of God" system: free and widespread.
At the beginning of last month, BYD officially launched its autonomous driving system "Shenyan" in China. This system is divided into three levels (A, B, C) with different functions and Sensor configurations:
Level A is specifically equipped for high-end models, featuring three Lidar units.
Class B is used for the Tengshi brand and high-end BYD models, equipped with one Lidar.
Class C covers all BYD brand models, using only cameras.
The Class C system serves as BYD's accessible automatic driving assistance system, mainly applied to mid- to low-end models, and is completely free for Consumers. Barclays believes this strategy significantly lowers the threshold for automatic driving technology, enabling BYD to rapidly expand its market share of automatic driving vehicles.
According to Barclays' estimates, models equipped with the "Eye of God" system will account for about 60% of BYD's total sales in 2024. Based on BYD's sales expectation of 5.5 million vehicles in 2025, BYD alone will contribute approximately 3 million vehicles with NOA (Navigation on Autonomous Driving) functionality by 2025. In contrast, it was reported that the total number of vehicles sold in China with NOA support in 2024 is about 2 million.
In terms of data and Cloud Computing, BYD collects approximately 72 million kilometers of driving data daily in 2024, and it is expected to exceed 0.15 billion kilometers per day by the end of 2025. However, in terms of computing power, BYD currently lags behind domestic peers and has a larger gap with Tesla (which has about 100+ EFLOPS of computing power).
Challenges for Tesla in the Chinese market.
As a pioneer in automatic driving technology, Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) system has been regarded as the industry benchmark in the USA market. However, in the Chinese market, Tesla faces numerous challenges. The report points out:
Firstly, technological limitations are the biggest obstacle for Tesla in the Chinese market. According to Chinese regulations, Tesla cannot transmit data from its Chinese fleet to the USA for training, resulting in its FSD system experiencing symptoms of being out of place in China. This limitation greatly diminishes Tesla's technological advantage in the Chinese market.
Secondly, the regulatory environment also brings many inconveniences to Tesla, not only increasing Tesla's operating costs but also limiting the promotion and application of its technology.
Moreover, market competition is also one of the significant challenges Tesla faces in the China market. Unlike the USA market, the competition for autonomous driving technology in the China market is exceptionally fierce. Many Chinese OEM manufacturers offer similar functional systems at lower prices or even for free.
For example, BYD's "Tianyan" system is not only powerful but also completely free, which makes Tesla's FSD system lose its competitiveness in terms of price. Tesla's FSD pricing in China is 64,000 yuan (approximately 8,800 dollars), significantly higher than BYD's, which may affect its market acceptance.
In the next three years, competition in autonomous driving will become increasingly intense.
With the continuous development of autonomous driving technology, Barclays Capital predicts:
By 2025, urban autonomous driving functions (L2+) will begin to become popular, with full adoption expected by 2026. By 2026, urban autonomous driving functions (L3) will begin to be commercialized, thanks to: 1) the reduction in the price of Lidar; 2) improvements in purely visual system performance.
Finally, by 2027, urban autonomous driving functions will continue to improve and begin a slow transition to L3+, which means that drivers will almost not need to take over during daily driving.
This trend also signifies the increasing intensity of market competition, and BYD, with its price advantage and rapid technology iteration, is expected to secure a favorable position in future market competition.
Editor/rice
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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