美国财政部长贝森特表示，美国经济的基础是健康的，没有理由出现衰退，同时拒绝了保证不会出现衰退的想法。贝森特表示，“我不能保证任何事情。”关于4月2日即将公布的对等关税，贝森特表示，“我还没有看到相关数字”，但他表示，这一过程将涉及为每个贸易伙伴分配特定的关税。贝森特乐观地表示，在某些情况下，国家可能会避免互惠关税。他说，其他贸易伙伴可能会在收到配额后寻求通过谈判降低关税水平。
Hot News
This week's FOMC, the market is most eagerly anticipating a statement of commitment from the Federal Reserve.
This week, Powell faces a tricky task of assuring investors that the USA economy remains strong while signaling readiness to intervene if necessary. Investors are most concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will commit to cutting interest rates if signs of economic weakness emerge. However, analysts believe Powell may avoid making such a commitment unless accompanied by an important prerequisite: officials need to see inflation persistently moving toward the 2% target and stability in future price rise expectations.
The US Treasury Secretary: There is no reason for a recession in the USA, tariffs will be allocated individually to each country.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the foundation of the USA economy is healthy and there is no reason for a recession, while rejecting the notion of guaranteeing that a recession will not occur. Yellen said, "I cannot guarantee anything." Regarding the upcoming reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, Yellen stated, "I haven't seen the relevant numbers yet," but indicated that this process would involve assigning specific tariffs for each trading partner. Yellen optimistically stated that in some cases, countries may avoid reciprocal tariffs. He mentioned that other trading partners may seek to negotiate lower tariff levels after receiving quotas.
Is the US stock market nearing a turning point? Goldman Sachs traders: Systematic deleveraging is nearing its end.
Recently, Goldman Sachs trader Scott Rubner pointed out in a report that the US stock market may be at the "top of the 9th" phase of the market cycle, and that "systematic tail risks" are now upward, meaning systematic factors could drive the US stock market to significant increases. Currently, CTAs have shorted $30 billion in US stocks, and assuming the current short squeeze continues, if US stocks experience an increase of +2 standard deviations in the next month, then CTAs may need to buy over $45 billion of the S&P 500.
Trump: The call with Putin was "very good and productive," hoping to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
On March 18 local time, US President Trump stated on his social media platform 'Truth Social' that his phone conversation with Russian President Putin that day was 'very good and productive.' He mentioned that both sides agreed to propose that Russia and Ukraine simultaneously abandon attacks on each other's energy infrastructure, and agree to make swift efforts to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire, ultimately ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Trump stated that both sides discussed many elements of a peace agreement, and both President Putin and President Zelensky wish to end this war. Trump expressed hope that this work could be completed.
Spot gold rose 1.13% to reach a historic new high of $3034.42 per ounce.
Spot gold rose by 1.13%, at $3034.42 per ounce; COMEX gold futures rose by 1.15%, at $3040.7 per ounce; both reached new highs. COMEX silver futures rose by 0.97%, at $34.64 per ounce.
Post-Market Trading
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 Index both fell by more than 1%, with Tesla down over 5%.
All three major US stock indexes closed down, with the Dow dropping 0.62%, the Nasdaq down 1.71%, and the S&P 500 Index down 1.07%.
Large technology stocks generally declined, with Super Micro Computer falling over 9%, Tesla down over 5%, NVIDIA, Meta, and Broadcom down over 3%, and Alphabet down over 2%.
China Concept Stocks were mixed, with XPeng and KE Holdings down over 7%, and Alibaba and Bilibili down over 3%; Xiaomi Corp. Unsponsored ADR Class B rose 3.7% to set a new closing historical high, Tencent Music rose over 15%, and NIO rose over 3%.
Jensen Huang's GTC keynote address: Blackwell Ultra and Rubin will ship next year; AI computers and humanoid robot models will be released.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Showcased the next-generation Vera Rubin AI super chip and Blackwell Ultra. Jensen Huang stated that the transition to Blackwell Ultra chips will take place in the second half of this year, with Vera Rubin set to replace Blackwell Ultra when it begins shipping in the second half of 2026.
In addition, NVIDIA announced two AI computers named DGX Spark and DGX Station, which use Blackwell chips; it also released the world's first humanoid robot prototype GR00T N1, developed in collaboration with DeepMind and Disney, utilizing the open-source physics engine Newton for robot simulation. The robot enhanced by GR00T N1, Blue, appeared alongside Jensen Huang, who declared that "the era of general-purpose robots has arrived."
Tesla has fallen from grace, with declining sales, intensified competition, and political controversies involving Musk raising concerns.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ On Tuesday, the stock price continued to fall more than 5%, while BYD reached a historic high after the company launched electric vehicles with charging speeds comparable to gasoline refueling. This is the latest blow to Tesla, as its extremely high valuation is based on continuous innovation and the ability to stay ahead of competitors. In the past month, reports of a significant decline in electric vehicle sales in key markets have worsened investor sentiment. Moreover, Musk's increasing political influence, which was widely believed to drive Tesla's business growth at the end of last year, has now become a burden on the stock price.
Released the strongest annual report in history! Xiaomi Corp. Unsponsored ADR's stock price hit an all-time high during trading.
Xiaomi Group's total revenue for 2024 is 365.9 billion yuan, reaching a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 35%; adjusted net income is 27.2 billion yuan, also a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 41.3%; income from innovative businesses like smart electric vehicles is 32.8 billion yuan. In the Autos business, 136,854 new cars were delivered in 2024, with a gross margin of 20.4% in Q4, aiming to reach an annual delivery target of 0.35 million vehicles this year. The Xiaomi SU7 Ultra has achieved its annual sales target of 0.01 million units ahead of schedule. Xiaomi Chairman Lei Jun stated that this is the strongest annual report in Xiaomi's history. $Xiaomi Corp. Unsponsored ADR Class B (XIACY.US)$ U.S. stocks rose over 6% in early trading, reaching an intraday historical high, and ultimately closed up nearly 4%.
Xpeng Motors' revenue for Q4 2024 is 16.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, with total vehicle deliveries increasing by 52.1% year-on-year.
$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Revenue for Q4 2024 is 16.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, compared to 13.05 billion yuan in the same period last year; total vehicle deliveries for Q4 are 91,507 units, an increase of 52.1% compared to 60,158 units in the same period of 2023; net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders is 5.79 billion yuan, compared to 10.38 billion yuan last year. Xpeng expects deliveries for the first quarter of 2025 to be between 91,000 and 93,000 units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 317.0% to 326.2%; total revenue is expected to be between 15 billion yuan and 15.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 129.1% to 139.8%. After the earnings report was released, Xpeng's U.S. stock fell nearly 8%.
Tencent Music surged over 15%, with net profit last year increasing by over 35% and a 1 billion dollar buyback plan.
$Tencent Music (TME.US)$ The stock rose over 15%, reaching a high of $15.33, a new high since July of last year. The company announced its full-year results for 2024, with total revenue of 28.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Among these, online music service revenue reached 21.742 billion yuan, up 25.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by growth in online music subscription revenue and advertising service revenue. Net income reached 6.644 billion yuan, an increase of 35% year-on-year. The Board of Directors announced a dividend of 9 cents per ordinary share for the 2024 fiscal year, or 18 cents per ADS. Additionally, the Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program of up to 1 billion dollars.
In Q4, KE Holdings' net income was 31.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1% year-on-year.
$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$ In Q4 2024, net income was 31.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1% year-on-year; adjusted net profit was 1.344 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.6% year-on-year. The total transaction volume for Q4 2024 was 1143.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.5%; as of December 31, 2024, the number of stores reached 51,573, a growth of 17.7% compared to the previous year; as of December 31, 2024, the number of active stores was 49,693, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year. Overnight, KE Holdings' US stocks fell over 7%.
Google has agreed to acquire the cybersecurity company Wiz for 32 billion dollars, aiming to enhance Google Cloud's competitiveness.
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ It was announced that the acquisition of the cybersecurity company Wiz for 32 billion dollars in cash has been agreed upon, and the deal is expected to close in 2026. After the acquisition, Wiz will join Google Cloud. Google stated that this acquisition is an important investment in the two major growth trends of the AI era - cloud security and multi-cloud usage capabilities, aimed at enhancing Google Cloud's competitiveness in the cybersecurity field. Wiz's products will continue to operate normally and will be available on all major cloud platforms, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Oracle Cloud.
SpaceX's spacecraft carrying NASA astronauts splashed down in waters near Florida, USA.
At 6 PM local time on March 18 (approximately 6 AM Beijing time on March 19), the USA's SpaceX 'Dragon' spacecraft splashed down off the coast of Florida. The 'Dragon' spacecraft carried four astronauts, including USA astronauts Wilmore and Williams, who were stranded at the International Space Station due to a failure of the 'Starliner' spacecraft.
Top 20 by trading volume in the U.S. stock market.
Related reading:Top 20成交额 | Intel's five-day increase exceeded 31%; AI application stocks declined, with Applovin dropping over 9%.
Hong Kong Market Outlook
Northern investors scooped up Xiaomi shares worth over 0.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, sold TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG shares worth over 2.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, and sold Alibaba shares worth over 1.2 billion Hong Kong dollars.
On March 18 (Tuesday), southbound funds net sold Hong Kong stocks worth 1.102 billion Hong Kong dollars.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$、$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$、$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$Net purchases of 0.915 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.463 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.451 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively.
$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$、$BABA-W (09988.HK)$、$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$They were net sold for 2.12 billion HKD, 1.253 billion HKD, and 0.351 billion HKD respectively.
China United Network Communications' annual net income exceeds 20 billion yuan.
$CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$ In 2024, revenue is 389.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; net income is 20.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year improvement of 10.1%. It is expected that asset investment in 2025 will be 55 billion yuan, with computing power investment increasing by 28% year-on-year, and annual dividends increasing by 20.1% year-on-year. In 2024, China United Network Communications' capital expenditure will decrease by 17% year-on-year to 61.37 billion yuan, while computing power investment will increase by 19% year-on-year. China United Network Communications fully embraces AI, stating that a special budget has been allocated for AI infrastructure and major special projects, with an expected 28% year-on-year increase in computing power investment by 2025.
Today's focus.
Keywords: BOJ announces interest rate decision, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda holds monetary policy press conference, TENCENT/ Kingsoft Cloud / GDS Holdings performance.
On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, investors may pay attention to the EIA Crude Oil Product inventory for the week ending March 14 in the USA.
In terms of financial events, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference led by Governor Kazuo Ueda.
In terms of Earnings Reports, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK)$ 、 $KINGSOFT CLOUD (03896.HK)$ 、 $GDS-SW (09698.HK)$The performance will be announced.
Futubull Morning Reading:
If you think you can accurately predict the market, then you are a fool. Do not prepare for a single outcome.
——Howard Marks
Edit/New
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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