对于华尔街投资者来说，这场演讲也可以看作是黄仁勋的“股价保卫战”：在英伟达股价年内下滑超10%之际，黄仁勋能否向外界传达足够多的乐观信心，从而推动英伟达股价重回巅峰？本文将梳理本次演讲的几大核心看点。
① The NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference kicked off in San Jose, California, USA, with CEO Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech focused on the latest developments in the forefront of AI, addressing market concerns about the company's stock price and growth potential. ② Key highlights of this speech include: the imminent debut of Blackwell Ultra; the unveiling of the next-generation Rubin, and Jensen Huang may also "leak" future roadmaps.
According to a report on March 18 by Caixin, local time on March 17, the annual global AI event – the NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference has officially commenced in San Jose, California, USA.
At 1 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday (1 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, March 18), NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech focusing on the latest developments in the forefront of AI, while directly addressing market concerns about NVIDIA's stock price and growth potential.
For Wall Street investors, this speech can also be viewed as Jensen Huang's "stock price defense battle": at a time when NVIDIA's stock price has decreased by over 10% this year, can Jensen Huang convey enough optimistic confidence to the outside world to drive NVIDIA's stock price back to its peak? This article will outline the key highlights of this speech.
1. Blackwell in high demand: But can the gross margin issues be resolved?
Although NVIDIA's official website claims that Jensen Huang's speech will "explore the future development of accelerated computing and AI," many investors are more focused on the ground before looking up at the stars: for investors, their biggest concern is the latest news about Blackwell – how is the sales situation of this flagship chip, the demand, the supply, the gross margin, the performance in the Chinese market, and the movements of competitors.
Jordan Klein, an Analyst from Mizuho Securities trading department, stated that it is almost certain that Jensen Huang will emphasize the strong demand for Blackwell products at the GTC. However, the short-term issues such as the decline in gross margin and production limitations brought about by Blackwell may still be a worry hanging over investors.
In fact, the decline in gross margin brought by Blackwell may be particularly the focus of investors' attention. In a recent earnings report conference call, several Analysts specifically asked about and discussed this topic.
Colette Kress, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NVIDIA, responded at the time that during the promotion of Blackwell, NVIDIA's gross margin would remain above 70%. However, as Blackwell fully enters mass production, NVIDIA will gradually optimize costs and increase gross margins. It is expected that by the end of this year, gross margins could reach around 75%.
2. Blackwell Ultra is about to debut: A leap in performance and the 'liquid cooling revolution'.
Considering that NVIDIA usually releases important GPU-related products at GTC, the market widely anticipates that NVIDIA's next-generation chip, the Blackwell Ultra GB300 and B300 series, will be showcased at this year's GTC conference, becoming one of the highlights of the event and a key step for NVIDIA to solidify its leadership position in AI Chips.
The mid-term update of the Blackwell architecture is expected to show significant improvements over its predecessors. The B300 series is anticipated to offer higher computing performance and 8 sets of 12-Hi HBM3E memory, providing up to 288GB of onboard memory. Rumor has it that performance of the B300 has improved by 50% compared to the B200 series. Industry insiders reveal that the GB300 may start shipping as early as May, accelerating the replacement of the GB200.
Moreover, according to market analysts, due to higher power consumption and cooling demands, NVIDIA will abandon traditional air cooling solutions and fully adopt liquid cooling technology, which will not only drive a surge in the use of liquid cooling plates and quick connectors but also signal the arrival of the 'secondary cooling revolution.' This transformation will not only promote upgrades in Datacenter infrastructure but may also reshape the Server supply chain landscape.
3. Next-generation Rubin unveiled: Will Jensen Huang leak the future roadmap?
It is almost certain that NVIDIA's next-generation GPU series, Rubin (named after the dark matter research pioneer astronomer Vera Rubin), will debut alongside Blackwell Ultra at GTC. Previously, NVIDIA hinted that Rubin would be released in 2026, and Jensen Huang is expected to promise a 'huge leap' in its computational capabilities.
However, JPMorgan Analyst Samik Chatterjee warned in a client report that investors need to be cautious regarding information related to the official release date of Rubin.
Although there is confidence that NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra can achieve mass production in the second half of 2025, there is skepticism regarding the release timeline of the Rubin chip. He stated:
"Due to delays experienced during the transition from Hopper to Blackwell, investors need to continue monitoring the update of the Rubin platform in 2026."
In addition, Jensen Huang recently revealed during the Earnings Reports conference call that he will announce the next-generation product after Rubin at GTC. Currently, there is speculation that the next-generation product may be named Rubin Ultra GPU.
The product line is expected to be released in 2027, and this product may further break the boundaries of GPU design, possibly including 12 HBM4E memory stacks. This represents a significant increase from the 8 stacks used in previous generations, potentially providing up to 576GB of total memory.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank stated that considering the expected numerous changes in the Rubin roadmap (new process nodes, new CPUs, new HBM, new packaging technologies), a very impressive performance improvement is anticipated for the next generation GPU platform. Additionally, given that the cost situation for the next generation GPUs may change significantly, investors are advised to pay attention to the pricing/gross margin trends of the new GPU platforms.
4. Stock Price Defense: Can the Wheels of Growth Continue to Move Forward?
Although NVIDIA's Q4 Earnings Reports exceeded expectations (revenue grew by 78%, datacenter revenue grew by 93%), as of this Monday's close, its stock price has accumulated a decline of over 10% this year, with the PE ratio falling to a five-year low. Just from the stock price trend, it can be seen that NVIDIA's position this year is drastically different from last year's GTC conference.
Earlier this year, the emergence of the DeepSeek inference model once shook the market's expectations for the AI computing power market, causing stock prices of major US Technology giants, including NVIDIA, to plummet. Although NVIDIA's stock price has since rebounded, it is clear that NVIDIA is no longer comfortably in a leading position.
As the AI market shifts from 'training' to 'inference', NVIDIA's main sources of profit are facing increasing pressure from technological changes. Although NVIDIA still holds over 90% market share and dominates the training market, it faces competition in inference. Additionally, geopolitical risks, supply chain issues, and tariff uncertainties could pose challenges to NVIDIA's future development.
In tonight's speech, Jensen Huang is expected to emphasize the growth potential of the inference market and highlight NVIDIA's 'irreplaceable' software and hardware ecosystem. The reaction from Wall Street to the speech is generally cautiously optimistic.
Jordan Klein, an analyst in the trading department of Mizuho Securities, stated that investors are focusing on a series of adverse factors faced by NVIDIA, noting that 'many do not believe or expect GTC to cover all uncertainties and concerns, including the weakness of the USA macroeconomy, tariff uncertainties, short-term declines in gross margin, and the limitations of supply chain issues on the growth of new products.'
Klein said: 'Personally, I remain bullish on NVIDIA, but I think the stock will remain in a range of fluctuations until the earnings report is released in May (Q1).'
Of course, there are also optimistic voices on Wall Street. For example, Jefferies analysts believe that GTC is expected to showcase NVIDIA's 'rapid pace of innovation', while Melius Research points out that NVIDIA's current valuation has partially absorbed the risks, and the stock price is likely to regain upward momentum thanks to the GTC conference.
Rhys Williams from Wayve Capital Management said: 'Our concern about NVIDIA is whether its profits have already peaked? Will the second half of the year not be as good as they describe? And Jensen Huang's speech may provide some reassurance to the market; he will tell everyone that everything is progressing smoothly, and the wheels of advancement will not fall off.'
Editor/Somer
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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