高盛大宗商品研究联席主管Daan Struyven团队表示，早些时候，市场的担忧集中在俄罗斯和伊朗石油出口可能中断，这曾一度支撑了油价。然而，随着这些风险逐步缓解，交易员将注意力转向美国经济增长放缓，导致对全球石油需求预期的重新评估。Goldman Sachs has lowered its crude oil price forecast for this year, as it anticipates that President Trump's continued tariff hikes may hinder USA economic growth, and OPEC+'s production increase may exceed expectations. Goldman Sachs predicts that this year, Brent crude oil prices will range between $65 and $80 per barrel, and may further decline to $68 per barrel next year, while also lowering its forecast for the USA economy and global oil demand growth.
On Sunday Eastern Time, Goldman Sachs lowered its crude oil price forecasts for this year due to the expectation that President Trump's ongoing tariff hikes could obstruct USA economic growth, and that OPEC+'s production increase schedule may exceed expectations.
Global oil prices have dropped due to a shift in sentiment.
Although global crude oil inventories are relatively stable and at low levels, Brent crude oil prices have recently experienced a significant drop: from over $80 per barrel in mid-January to around $70 per barrel. Goldman Sachs stated that this round of decline is primarily driven not by changes in the fundamentals of oil supply but by shifts in market sentiment.
Daan Struyven, co-head of Goldman Sachs' Commodity Research team, stated that earlier, market concerns focused on the potential disruption of oil exports from Russia and Iran, which had once supported oil prices. However, as these risks have gradually eased, traders have shifted their attention to the slowdown in USA economic growth, leading to a reevaluation of global oil demand expectations.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the recent sell-off reflects concerns about the slowdown in USA economic growth, which may suppress fuel demand and weigh on oil prices. The Goldman Sachs team wrote in the report:
Due to the ongoing policy risks in the USA, this means that it is still easy to envision scenarios where economic growth is worse than what the market currently reflects... Signals from the government indicate that they are not ready to rule out the possibility of a recession, which has heightened recent concerns about economic growth.
Goldman Sachs currently expects Brent crude oil prices to be $71 per barrel by December this year, which is $5 lower than previous estimates. Goldman Sachs also predicts that the benchmark WTI crude oil price in the USA will be $67 per barrel by the end of this year.
Goldman Sachs stated in the report that it expects Brent crude oil prices to range between $65 and $80 per barrel this year, while the average price for next year may further decline to $68 per barrel.
They stated: "Given that tariffs may escalate further, and OPEC+ may increase production for a longer duration, the mid-term risks we forecast for oil prices remain to the downside."
The economic slowdown in the USA is dragging down oil demand.
Last week, a team led by Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius has downgraded the outlook for the USA economy, reducing the GDP growth forecast for the USA from 2.4% to 1.7% for 2025.
This move affects everything. Following this, the Goldman Sachs team immediately downgraded their outlook for US stocks, reducing the target for the S&P 500 Index by the end of 2025 from 6,500 points to 6,200 points.
With the downward adjustment of economic growth expectations, Goldman Sachs has reduced the forecast for global oil demand growth by 18% over the weekend, to 0.9 million barrels per day (previously expected to be 1.1 million barrels per day).
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