投资建议：受益于技术持续迭代及新业务发展，预计公司龙头地位持续稳固，看好公司长期发展。但是结合当前光伏产业下游电池组件承压情况，预计公司2025-2027年实现营业收入170.79/190.31/213.20亿元,同比+11.26%/+11.43%/+12.03%，公司2025-2027年归母净利润为5.01/6.11/7.02亿元（2025-2026年原预测值分别为6.00/7.16亿元），对应当前P/E为13.89x/11.39x/9.92x，维持“买入”评级。Incident: The company announced 2024 results, achieving full year operating income of 15.351 billion yuan, +59.85% year over year; realized net profit of 0.36 billion yuan, -6.66% year over year; realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.439 billion yuan, +28.03% year over year. In the 2024Q4 single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 3.842 billion yuan, +9.57% year-on-year; realized net profit to mother 0.067 billion yuan, +11.94% month-on-month.
The company's silver paste shipment volume and structure have maintained a steady trend. In 2024, the company's photovoltaic conductive silver paste achieved sales of 2037.69 tons, +18.91%; of these, the full range of conductive silver paste products used in N-type Topcon batteries achieved sales of 1815.53 tons, accounting for 89.10% of the company's total sales volume of photovoltaic conductive silver paste products, and is in a leading position in the industry. 2024Q4 achieved sales of 456.53 tons of photovoltaic conductive silver paste, of which TopCon shipped 429.13 tons, accounting for 94.00%.
Leading technology research and development, copper paste is expected to be mass-produced. In the field of high copper paste, the company has carried out long-term cooperative development with leading customers, and has introduced a high copper paste design and application plan for high temperature batteries such as TopCon. It is estimated that it is expected to promote large-scale mass production in the second half of this year, while actively promoting the application of related solutions in the TBC battery field. From the new development and design of the seed layer paste glass powder, the reconstruction and morphology control of the silver powder system, to special surface treatment of base metal powder and enhanced formulation of high copper slurry, and interface adaptation between the seed layer and the high copper layer, technical barriers are expected to be improved in multiple dimensions. In addition, high-copper slurries require the use of powders of different shapes and sizes to be mixed, and the company will also enhance the unique surface treatment and formula of the purchased powder. At the same time, the company's powder supplier structure is quite diverse, and there are layouts at home and abroad.
Investment advice: Benefiting from continuous technology iteration and new business development, the company's leading position is expected to continue to stabilize, and the company is optimistic about its long-term development. However, based on the current pressure on downstream battery modules in the photovoltaic industry, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 17.079/19.031/21.32 billion yuan in 2025-2027, +11.26%/+11.43%/+12.03%, and the company's net profit to mother in 2025-2027 is 0.501/0.611/0.702 billion yuan (the original forecast value for 2025-2026 was 0.6/0.716 billion yuan, respectively), corresponding to the current P/E 13.89x/11.39x/9.92x, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of fluctuations in global PV installations; risk of introducing new technology; risk of bad debts; risk of upstream and downstream price fluctuations.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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