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快手的下一步,是夺回流量主动权

Kuaishou's next step is to take back the initiative in traffic

互聯網鬥獸場 ·  Feb 7, 2021 14:57

Original title: Kuaishou Technology cut the clan war, looking for a substitute for Simba

01.pngNiuniu knocked on the blackboard:

Kuaishou Technology completed the IPO on Friday and closed with a market capitalization of HK $1,000bn, double its pre-IPO estimate. However, the problems surrounding Kuaishou Technology's stagnant user growth and low monetization of e-commerce GMV are still lingering.

Under the double attack of Douyin and video account, Kuaishou Technology is trying to regain the initiative of platform traffic, but this is also a big reshuffle for ecologically-based e-commerce anchors. The result is hard to predict.

"he is very real and says what he has to say. "

A year ago, 22-year-old Lesser Cold became a "true love fan" of Prince Yu after he "met" Mr. Yu in the studio of Kuaishou Technology anchor Xiao Yi. Daily snacks and cosmetics can be solved in his studio, and he will never jump to the e-commerce platform to buy.

The eldest son of Yu is an e-commerce anchor on Kuaishou Technology's platform, and he is not as famous as Simba, but in the past year, his fans have risen rapidly, with the highest number of goods in a single game reaching 368 million.Become one of the few non-family anchors whose GMV can squeeze into Kuaishou Technology's TOP10.

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The eldest prince Yu

Lesser Cold has seen many "performances" with anchors in Xiao Yi's studio, and some of them "can say anything in order to sell goods." only Childe Yu is different, he will give fans advice and reminders, such as pregnant women can not buy certain products, she thinks this is very important, can see whether an anchor is sincere enough.

The sincere Prince Yu is not without problems. During the crisis of public opinion in Simba because of the bird's nest incident, Prince Yu was also sold the same goods and was punished by the platform for half a month.

But without Simba's "familial" baggage and fame, the media and platforms, they did not target the eldest son of Yu. At Kuaishou Technology's "1001 Night" New year's Eve party, Prince Yu also became the e-commerce representative selected by the platform and stepped onto the party stage.

Perhaps, under the continuous negative impact of Simba, Kuaishou Technology is in urgent need of another more positive anchor to reverse the outside impression of Kuaishou Technology e-commerce and Kuaishou Technology himself.

Big bet. "final winner.

In a live broadcast on April 19, 2020, Xiao Yi, who has 30 million fans, competes with Liu Ergou, who has 1500 fans. In Kuaishou Technology's PK system, the two anchors in joint broadcasting, who can receive more rewards in a short period of time, is the winner of the competition.

In Xiao Yi's camp, Shi Yu Alva (later referred to as Shi Yu) brushed out 10.078 million fast coins, while Prince Yu brushed out 3.981 million fast coins, ranking second and third on the reward list, respectively. According to the ratio of fast coins and RMB 10:1, the two spent about 1 million and 400000 respectively on reward. It is no accident that similar listings are on the list. Under Kuaishou Technology's family-oriented ecology, the fastest growth route for e-commerce anchors is to compete with major anchors for joint broadcasting. Three days later, in the small Yiyi studio, the eldest son of Yu brushed another 1.2 million yuan and the rain brushed another 230000 yuan.

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The eldest son of Shi Yu and Yu are from the same live broadcast company, Shuangwang Network. They have a similar Kuaishou Technology ID. Yu's ID is yw110016, and Yu's ID yw110024.

Fang Jian, president of Yuanwang Network, previously revealed in a public sharing that when he cut into live e-commerce in 2019, he used the selection of anchors."Horse racing is not like horses."We will provide live broadcast venues and teams for anchors. To become a comprehensive anchor, to become the most powerful anchor, we must work hard through the team. "

More than half a year later, the number of fans of Prince Yu rose from 3 million to 16 million, and the number of fans of Shiyu dropped from 540000 to 490000. The horse racing mechanism has chosen the final winner for the company.

It is understood that Qianwang internally divides anchors into independent anchors and business anchors in order to reduce incubation costs. Business contracts are all waist anchors, and the company is not responsible for operation, but will help anchors to attract investment, commodity operation, advertising, customer service and after-sale, and the profits and losses of advertising will be borne by the anchorman himself.

People like Mr. Yu belong to the company's own anchors, and more than half of the company's GMV is contributed by their own anchors. Yuhua, the anchor who worked with Prince Yu in his early years, got into trouble after turning over the two companies. the high-quality account was in the hands of the company and could not be redeemed with money. the live broadcast effect of the account in his hand was not satisfactory. Looking back, she didn't expect that Yu was the one who "became a big anchor."

In Hangzhou, Yuda is the minority and Yuhua is the majority. Full-time anchor incubator practitioners, also do not have a clear way inside, the same process of operation, not everyone can take the lead. From the early days of Taobao to Kuaishou Technology and Douyin, countless hopeless little anchors disappeared behind their heads.

But the process of anchor training is the next story to be told from afar. Although Ruhan, the last online celebrity organization to promote "incubation ability" in the capital market, announced its delisting last year.

Super head Zhang Dayi accounts for too much of the company's total GMV (more than 50% in the first three quarters of 2019). The company is indeed tapping the potential of mid-waist anchors, but there is no next Zhang Dayi, and store sales have been seriously affected by "a head KOL that has suffered from negative reports since April 2020."

The status of Prince Yu is now equivalent to that of Zhang Dayi from afar. According to the Internet Colosseum, Yuanwang is tilting resources towards two heads (the other is Li Zhuoxuan), devoting itself to building Mr. Yu into a super head.

In the first half of 2020, the company's social e-commerce business surged 547.17% to 288 million in revenue, but its gross margin was only 24 million, and its gross profit margin fell to 8.46% of   from   38.47% in the same period last year, according to an announcement on Saturday.

On Saturday, I explained that in order to seize the economic "tuyere" of live broadcasting, the company increased the traffic delivery fees to the contracted anchors of the company, in order to increase the number of anchors' fans and sales, which were included in the current cost. as a result, the gross profit margin has decreased.

Wenzhou Qiange, Hangzhou Laoxia, ao Zai and other "Top Ten anchors" appeared in the company's half-yearly inquiry letter reply announcement.It is currently in a state of suspension.

The capital stories of super anchors

For a listed company like Saturday, the greatest value of Prince Yu, who spent all his financial resources, may finally be able to continue to tell stories in the secondary market.

According to Internet Colosseum (internet-war)After the acquisition, there is almost no effective integration between the original line of business and the live e-commerce on Saturday.

But with the popularity and profitability of live e-commerce, Saturday is still a beneficiary.

First of all, in 2019, the acquisition successfully achieved a net profit of 176 million yuan on Saturday, an increase of 1871.45% over the same period last year.

At the same time, it also makes it the only A-share company that directly owns top-tier traffic platform e-commerce anchors. The A-share market has always been fond of hype and concepts. After the end of double 12 in 2019, with dozens of consecutive limit boards, share prices soared on Saturday, rising from a range of 4-6 yuan to as high as 31 yuan per share.

Entering 2020, due to the drag of the original business (women's shoes) on Saturday, looking forward to increasing investment, it failed to make Saturday's financial report continue to turn losses into profits, and the plan to spin off the two businesses was difficult to achieve in a short period of time. The stock price on Saturday is only half of what it was at its peak.

At the same time, the capital market's understanding of live e-commerce is becoming clear. Throughout 2020, Weiya, Li Jiaqi and Simba have been on and off with A-share listed companies. Looking ahead, if you continue to maintain the "middle waist" business model, as an ordinary delivery company, the attractiveness of the secondary market is declining.

The solution from afar is to continue to build the super head.

But Kuaishou Technology e-commerce is the family anchor camp, because Simba brings goods GMV is too high, for a long time outsiders are questioning Kuaishou Technology e-commerce was kidnapped by the head anchor and several families.

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Left: Simba

Fan Lesser Cold feels that Yu's eldest son and Simba are two completely different people. Yu has only "true love fans", while Simba has a "group effect." she was originally a fan of Paiqi and Xiao Yi, and the couple are about her age. But "with brains, running such a big company and taking apprentices, most people can't do it."

The head anchors of several families all have similar inspirational stories. Simba said that the son of his farmer, who had endured hardships since childhood, came out to work early to earn money, and went abroad to start a business, went to prison, and started a business again.

Fans like these simple and straightforward values: work hard, struggle, and achieve something.

This is also the reason why it is difficult for institutional anchors to stand out.

A life experience that looks like a script, true or false, may be just to cater to fans, but the construction of the whole story and the temperament conveyed by this person cannot be camouflaged for a long time.

It is difficult for anchors trained by institutions to carry the earthy smell of native anchors.

The eldest son of Yu is trying to get close to the state of the original anchor. he talks about the sadness of working after graduation, how he evolved from a rookie with a monthly salary of 3600 to the head anchor of a company, although he could not become a family, butAnchors with institutionalized operations also want to gain the personality cult of fans, not just the channels that viewers use to buy cheap goods.

Luo Xing, a fan of Simba, can still see the difference between the two. Prince Yu's studio is bright and professional, like a specialty store. Simba is holding a mobile phone to broadcast live, half his body is infinitely close to the camera, and he has countless emotions to express in front of the camera.

Kuaishou Technology's traffic initiative

Although the size gap is large, from afar, a prince Yu is enough to prove that institutions have the ability to incubate head anchors, especially in Kuaishou Technology, where there is no precedent.

Looking at the story of incubating the head anchor with an institutional background, it has not moved more institutions for the time being.

Starting from the end of 2019, some institutional MCN, which could not find an entry point in Kuaishou Technology, began to migrate to Douyin. The latter live e-commerce business has just started, the organization hopes to figure out the rules of Douyin before the pattern is determined.

In addition to live e-commerce, some internalized MCN institutions began to implement differential layout strategies, that is, Kuaishou Technology as the key operating platform, Douyin as the strategic platform, the importance of the latter is greater than the former.

The founder of gourmet MCN said that some accounts are beginning to show a slowdown in fan growth, and more importantly, accounts are more expressive in the commercialization of Douyin, with sometimes a cash gap of more than three times between the same account.

"commercialization requires the joint efforts of platforms and institutions. The founder believes that Kuaishou Technology can provide weaker commercial resources than Douyin.

The founder of another MCN company had a similar feeling. The company joined Kuaishou Technology in early 2020, but a year later, most of its accounts stagnated and remained operating, with the company shifting its focus to Douyin and then to Video.

He believes that it may be the stagnant growth of Kuaishou Technology's user market, affecting the growth of account fans.

According to Kuaishou Technology's prospectus, the number of daily active users of apps increased from 258 million to 264 million from June to November 2020, which has not changed much and failed to maintain the 300 million users intended to be achieved in last year's K3 campaign.

Few people have mentioned that Kuaishou Technology is a restrained APP, the strategy of insisting on not disturbing users has been put down in the face of growth.There are more main APP and super-fast version pop-up windows, and users who have not opened Kuaishou Technology for a long time will receive "return invitation" text messages. The growing anxiety and stress are easily detected by the outside world.

From the perspective of creators, the growth potential of fans and the growth space of commercialization are important factors in choosing a platform, both of which are related to the flow ecology of the platform.

Kuaishou Technology is trying his best to change the ecological situation within the platform, including limiting family head anchors, revising 8.0 to strengthen the public domain, and enriching platform traffic purchasing tools.

The outbreak of the eldest son of Yu coincided with Kuaishou Technology's pace of self-adjustment. Fans of Prince Yu said that he had been using Kuaishou Technology for only one year and that Simba was in a state of ban when he first paid attention to him.

Revision 8.0 is the redistribution of traffic within the platform. In addition to the differences in user experience, an important feature of 8.0 is overall trembling. The ideal effect is that 8.0 can help Kuaishou Technology regain control over traffic. So that VJs can directly purchase public domain traffic through the tools in the platform, thus changing the situation that new VJs need to hit the list for some major VJs in order to increase their fans because the original private domain discourse power is too strong.

The distant View team mentioned in an interview that the cost of listing is really high, and you need to coordinate the time with the primary VJ. After Kuaishou Technology Xiaodian Tong (which can carry out short video and live promotion) was launched in June 2020, the conversion effect has been significantly improved, and there are also quantifiable standards.

Taking back the traffic initiative, Kuaishou's online marketing revenue is also on the rise. According to the prospectus, Kuaishou's online marketing revenue reached 13.3 billion as of September 2020, exceeding last year's total.

Kuaishou Technology officially launched in September 2020. From the perspective of revenue alone, the commercialization ability of public domain traffic has not been fully developed. Even if Kuaishou Technology's user growth continues to stagnate in the coming period of time, its marketing revenue is likely to increase significantly.

It's just that the growth in business revenue can only ease some of the anxiety.

Kuaishou Technology service provider revealed that the revision itself is not achieved overnight, the original ecology has been formed, it is difficult to be affected.

A member of the Guangzhou e-commerce union told the Internet Colosseum that after Kuaishou Technology bought tools for public domain traffic online, during the Singles' Day, the Simba family was the team that put in the most, which means that Simba, which originally occupied the largest private domain traffic, can still rely on throwing money to recover the public domain traffic collected by Kuaishou Technology.

Therefore, in addition to the stock, the best solution for Kuaishou Technology to find the discourse power of the platform is to find new user increments.

But under the double attack of Douyin and video account, it is very difficult for Kuaishou Technology's management team to do this.

Although Douyin and Kuaishou Technology chose a completely different product logic, content first, rejected all the possibility of the formation of the "family", the head iteration speed is fast, but a large number of middle waist, middle tail, can not make a profit in Douyin. These mid-waist, mid-tail institutions are rapidly moving into the video number. On the contrary, Kuaishou Technology's original anchors are in no hurry to expand their territory, and the proportion of migration is much lower than that of Douyin.

The potential user base of the video account is almost the user group represented by Wechat. From an ecological point of view, it chose a completely different route from Kuaishou Technology and Douyin, so that machine recommendations and social recommendations coexist. However, the commercial infrastructure of the video is not perfect, and the organization can only cross the river by feeling the stones for the time being.

Kuaishou Technology faces great obstacles, but investment institutions continue to be bullish on Kuaishou Technology.

Kuaishou Technology IPO shares nearly tripled on the first day of trading, with a market capitalization of HK $1.3 trillion, with a closing price of HK $300 and a market capitalization of HK $1.2 trillion.

Shares in Kuaishou Technology's concept stock fell nearly 5 per cent to Rmb15.50 on Saturday. But interestingly, although share prices have halved in the past year and fallen 35% in the last three months, there were three trading boards on Saturday as recently as January.

Kuaishou Technology's process of taking back the traffic initiative may be a big reshuffle for anchors in the ecology.

Yuhua, Luo Xing and Lesser Cold are aliases. )

Edit / emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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