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期权异动 | 狂热情绪蔓延,短期上行空间渐窄

Options changes | Fanaticism spreads, and short-term upward space is narrowing

富途資訊 ·  Jan 19, 2021 21:55  · Exclusive

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Us Stock Intelligence Agent | Eli, Tommy

This article summarizes the latest large order changes in the option market for you.

By monitoring these market data, investors can use this often neglected information and formulate investment strategies.

The short selling on Friday put an interesting end to most of the options that expired in January, and as the overall Gamma trend in derivatives fell, the market opened a small window of volatility, including the target of kinetic energy overheating under several segments.

Financial concept stocks, which were at the forefront of the earnings season, experienced a very strong plate rotation and rose sharply before the earnings data were released.Options change | is the banking sector about to lead the earnings season?), with the announcement of the financial results, the market funds gradually entered the "sell the numbers" mood.

In addition, the sweeping activities of other institutions last week were extremely hasty in our observation and did not have much forward-looking reference. With constant changes in individual stocks, it can become easy to move up, especially in small-cap stocks and some speculative targets with unprecedented option trading volume and stock price movements.

In the option chain, we can feel that market players are no longer satisfied with + 50% momentum, and 2-day positions are no longer in line with their short-term thinking. In the market of individual stock carnival, players have been spoiled and wish every target in their hands can have a huge return. Although the volatility window of the market has been opened and the intraday risk and return has gradually declined, the past gains are still not enough for many traders.

There is no doubt that intraday or short-term trading will become more difficult as the earnings season enters its best part. As we mentioned a few weeks ago.At present, with the soaring of individual stocks, the best room for risk and return has been gradually reduced.So it is most important to measure how much controllable risk each of us is willing to take for a certain profit, otherwise we may need to take an all-cash position or a small directional buyer transaction in the near future.

Emotionally

There has been an effective cooling in the short-term market, and this sentiment is also reflected in the options market.

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Bank of America Corporation rights and interests market sentiment indicator source: Bank of America Corporation

Sister Hua mentioned earlier that the index will tend to the right side when the market sentiment is too hot, and if the mood is too pessimistic, it will tend to the left side (because of the reverse reference attribute, the index will appear a sell signal on the right side of the mood overheating, the current value is 7.1).

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Hedge fund exposure (bottom) corresponds to the S & P 500 trend (top)

Hedge fund exposure is still in a downward trend (they can participate in the market as bulls or bears to drive the overall pricing range and momentum trend of the market).

Market ETF options change on January 15th

More than 49.5 million contracts were traded on Friday, January 15, with ETF and individual stocks trading 40 per cent higher than normal, while index trading volume was 29 per cent higher than average, and the market-wide PUT/CALL ratio rose to 0.61 from a recent level below 0.50.

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Changes in individual stock options in various sectors on January 15

The most active plates includeFinanceMedical treatmentEnergy plateCommunications, industrial and consumer sectorsTrading volume is relatively calm. Of the 3690 stocks with only listed options, 28 per cent closed up and 69 per cent closed down. Among the 500 stocks with the highest liquidity, 101 have higher implied volatility and 364 have lower implied volatility on the 30th. The stocks that have detected transaction changes include:$Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US) $, $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US) $, $BlackBerry (BB.US) $, $Game Station (GME.US) $, $Tilray, Inc. (TLRY.US) $

Science and technology stock

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Industrial stock

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Cyclical consumer stock

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Financial stocks

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Communications Unit

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Medical and Health Unit

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Energy stocks

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Real estate stock

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Building Materials Unit

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Defensive consumer stock

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Public utilities unit

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The option tool is flexible and easy to use, and it is considered to be the most perfect trading tool in the financial market so far. small funds can quickly accumulate wealth through accurate judgment using non-linear leverage. large funds can achieve stable returns through the comprehensive application of multiple strategies across bull-bear and shock markets. But we also need to see the buyer's risk of options (ordinary investors are careful to be sellers of options, with limited returns and unlimited losses):

1. Nonlinear huge leverage will suffer huge losses if it is faced with going in the wrong direction.

2. Volatility drops, and the other side may lose money.

3. The state of mind is easy to be out of balance with big fluctuations.

4. Time is the enemy of option buyer.

5. Stock thinking is serious. Stock thinking is just want to do long, will not short, fall more want to bottom, trap, ignore and so on rebound, and even some people add positions to lower costs, the result is deeper and deeper to zero. If you don't change your mind, it's dangerous to make options.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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