Niuniu knocked on the blackboard:
Market rumors Apple Inc started the first wave of single-cutting, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd next year Q1 5nm capacity utilization may fall to 80%, leading to the market on iPhone sales began to be pessimistic.
Tianfeng analyst Guo Mingyi believes that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's move is a seasonal adjustment, within expectations. At the same time, it is emphasized that the shortage of CIS caused Apple Inc to repair the order to a certain extent.
Xiaobian believes that short-term shortage of mobile phone CIS may be related to the strong demand for autopilot. After the expansion of production by Samsung and Weier, Sony Group Corp may follow up to expand production, shortage or be readily solved; at the same time, Qualcomm Inc 888 processor will be released ahead of schedule this year, and new products from the Q1 Android camp will be launched intensively next year. Q1 mobile phone market may not be weak in the off-season.
Finally, industry insiders remind us to be cautious in the face of the recent shortage of semiconductors. The market will more or less repeat or over-issue orders. at present, the expected psychology of downstream manufacturers to prepare goods is greater than the actual demand, and inventory adjustment may occur as soon as the first quarter of next year.
Yesterday"did Apple Inc really cut the bill? "It is mentioned in the article thatIt is rumored that Apple Inc started the first wave of orders, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's utilization rate of Q1 5nm capacity may drop to 80% next year, causing the market to be pessimistic about iPhone sales.Today, Geer, Lixun, Lance and other A-share Apple Inc concept stocks fell collectively.
Source: Futu Securities
How does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd reduce the utilization rate of 5nm capacity?
Seasonal factors, within expectation
According to Guo Mingyi, a well-known Apple Inc analyst at Tianfeng International, the capacity utilization rate of Q1 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd 5nm next year will not be 100%, including seasonal factors.
Guo Mingyi said that the shipments of iPhone assemblies and components are expected to increase by 5% in the first quarter of next year, although the shipment estimate in the second quarter is revised down from about 51 million to 45 million units.But it is still significantly higher than that in the same period last year.IPhone demand has not yet been seen weakening.
The reduction in 5nm capacity utilization is mainly due to seasonal factors.Plus iPhone12Pro series CIS is out of stock.On the other hand, the mass production time of iPhone13 will be the same as in the past, that is, earlier than iPhone12, which means that next year's iPhone processor generation transition schedule will be earlier than this year.
CIS out of stock affects Android and Apple Inc
The semiconductor industry chain is extremely out of stock this year, and the CIS chips in the consumer electronics industry chain are also unfortunately out of stock recently.It directly affects the shipments of Sunny Optical and Da Liguang of the two major optical factories.Sunny Optical in November lens shipment growth suddenly turned negative, the official announcement explained that due to the shortage of upstream CIS.
The demand for autopilot is strong, or one of the reasons why CIS is out of stock
South Korean media Central Daily reported last weekThe expansion of the market for 5G smartphones, self-driving cars and robots has led to a sharp increase in demand for CIS, which plays the role of "eyes" of related products.
At the beginning of 2020, Sony Group Corp released Sony Group Corp car on CES, with 33 CIS chips installed in the car.Sony Group Corp also said unabashedly that car CIS makes more money than mobile phone CIS, so Sony Group Corp shifted part of the mobile phone CIS production capacity to automobile CIS.Despite the recovery in demand for mobile phones in the second half of the year, the wave of self-driving is coming, and perhaps the crisis in mobile phone CIS production capacity is understandable.
In the face of Sony Group Corp's "strategic shift", Samsung and Weir seized the opportunity in time, constantly conquered the mobile phone market, and continued to increase their market share.
It has been reported recently that Samsung plans to divert a DRAM plant into a CIS production line, thereby increasing CIS production by 20 per cent. In the face of Samsung, Weier's gradual pressure, it is believed that Sony Group Corp will also continue to expand production.Therefore, CIS is out of stock or does not have continuity.
Mobile phone market Q1 may usher in the peak of new products
Q1 is often the off-season for new mobile phone launches, but next year will be very different.Qualcomm Inc's annual flagship chip Snapdragon 888 was released ahead of schedule in December. At the end of the year, XIAOMI will launch the world's first Snapdragon 888 new product, and Samsung's annual flagship S21 series has also rarely advanced the release to mid-January next year.
New mobile phone products are intensive, superimposed by Spring Festival factors, and the Q1 mobile phone market may usher in growth next year.
Risk Tip: be calm in the face of total shortage of semiconductors
At present, it has become a consensus that 8-inch wafer foundry is out of stock, and the relevant targets have been fried in the sky. But is demand really that explosive? According to the memory market reportSome people in the industry believe that the market will more or less repeat or over-issue orders. at present, the expected psychology of downstream manufacturers to prepare goods is greater than the actual demand, and inventory adjustment may occur as soon as the first quarter of next year, but do not rule out the possibility that demand is still hot. There will be no correction.
For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd downgrade 5nm capacity utilization, what do you think? Does the iPhone cut order mean that Apple Inc's sales are weak? Where will the mobile phone market go? Welcome all cattle friends to leave messages and exchange messages in the comment area.
Us Stock Intelligence Agent | Eric