Not long ago, an "enthusiastic citizen" in Florida became very popular on Twitter because he wanted to get an absentee voter vote in the name of his deceased wife. When asked by the police about the reasons for fraud, the man unexpectedly claimed that he was only to test the effectiveness of the election voting system.

Such vote fraud is not alone in Florida, which has recorded 30 cases of fraud since the 2000 election. This is only the case that has been discovered. In fact, there may be more cases of fraud that have not been detected by the police.

The issue became a hot topic not only because of Florida's importance in swing states, but also because it inspired people to think:How on earth did the voting result of the general election come about? How much water will there be in the election results?

Effective voters account for only 70% of the total population of the United States.

American votersFirst of all, I want to vote for the presidential electionThe voter must be an 18-year-old American citizen who is registered before the election.Because voters live outside the United States or are unable to vote on the spot because of illness, the government allows them to cast "absentee votes" in the form of postal ballots.

Effective voterBut if voters have ever facedFelony charges or mental disordersDoes not have the right to vote。Only when the above conditions are met can we become truly effective voters.

But the data tell us that only 72% of people in the United States actually have the right to vote.

According to the statistics of the United Nations, by mid-2020, the total population living in the United States reached 330 million, of which American citizens accounted for about 93 percent, or about 310 million.

According to data. Elections Project, excluding people under the age of 18, the number of voters in the United States is about 260 million; further screening out the population with the background of felony charges, the final valid voters in the United States are only 240 million, accounting for about 70% of the total population.

Only half of American voters are expected to vote, accounting for 40% of the total population of the United States.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, since 2000,Only 50% of all American voters over the age of 18 will vote for the presidential election.。

Assuming that in this year's general election, the actual voter turnout remains around 55%, and the total number of voters is expected to be 260 million, that meansIn the end, only 140 million people actually voted, accounting for 40% of the total population of the United States.

Seeing this, I'm sure you all understand.In fact, the result of the presidential election does not reflect the will of the people.

The existence of the "Electoral College" system has increased the uncertainty of the final election result.

Electoral College system: the President of the United States is not directly elected by voters, but by the Electoral College

According to the US Constitution, the final decision on the presidential election rests with the "Electoral College", not the voters.Voters first elect the "electors" of the states, and then the "electors" vote for the presidential candidates according to the will of the voters.

Because the size of the population varies from state to state, the more populous states will have more electoral votes. For example, California has 55 electoral votes, more than a dozen other states combined.

As long as a candidate gets more than 50% of the popular vote in a state, all the electoral votes in that state will also belong to him. If the candidate has more than 270 electoral votes, he will win the election.

However, there is also a loophole in this system, that is, candidates with more universal suffrage do not necessarily get more electoral votes.. For example, in the 1980 general election, Reagan won 50.7% of the popular vote, not far behind that of his competitors, but eventually won the election with 90.9% of the electoral votes.

In addition, there are many variables in the result of the general election, such as the influence of unfaithful electors and justices, which will not be repeated here.

Voter turnout in this year's election will hit an all-time high

According to the latest opinion polls, Biden is still nearly 10 points ahead of Trump. However, as the participation rate in this election broke a record high, the final result is still unknown.

According to foreign media reports, the voter turnout in this general election will break the record in a century. According to data. Elections Project, with less than four weeks to go before election day,More than 3.8 million Americans have voted for the election, compared with 75000 in the same period in 2016, a year-on-year increase of nearly 5,000 percent.

Affected by the epidemic, the scope of on-site voting and postal voting in this election has greatly expanded, which is part of the reason why a large number of voters cast their ballots in advance.

Who do you think will win in the end?