浙商证券分析师表示，预计中药板块将于2025年二季度迎来业绩拐点，板块行情或提前于业绩拐点显现而启动。该行指出，伴随医保统筹支付范围的逐步扩大，具备比价条件的高毛利率/高销售额的医保品种面临降价风险，中药公司通过精细化、智能化、系统化等方式提质增效或能实现业绩和股价的持续上涨。中泰证券认为，展望2025年，中药板块在经历后新冠时期需求和库存的周期波动之后，有望回归常态化增长，收入端迎来回暖。同时，中药材成本端压力的缓解，也将带动毛利率的向上修复。Source: Zhitong Finance.
Some stocks in the Traditional Chinese Medicine concept opened higher, as of the time of writing, $TRAD CHI MED (00570.HK)$Increased by over 6%.$TONGRENTANGCM (03613.HK)$up over 4%, $MODERN CHI MED (01643.HK)$ Up over 2%.
Regarding the news, the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on "Enhancing the Quality of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry," which mentioned increasing the protection of Traditional Chinese Medicine resources and studying and revising the "Regulations on the Protection and Management of Wild Medicinal Material Resources." It aims to standardize the development and utilization of rare Traditional Chinese Medicine resources and to make breakthroughs in breeding, biomimetic, and substitutive technologies for a number of rare Traditional Chinese Medicine resources. It will promote the Statistics monitoring of Traditional Chinese Medicine resources. The opinion also mentioned strengthening the construction of the circulation and reserve system for Traditional Chinese Medicine materials, enhancing the market management of Traditional Chinese Medicine materials, and improving the price regulation mechanism for Traditional Chinese Medicine materials. It will optimize the industrial structure layout and develop advantageous industrial clusters. It aims to enhance the quality of Traditional Chinese Medicine manufacturing and promote the digital and intelligent development of the Traditional Chinese Medicine industry. It will cultivate renowned Traditional Chinese Medicine varieties, strengthen the inheritance and innovation of Traditional Chinese Medicine processing techniques, and support the innovation and improvement of major Traditional Chinese Medicine varieties. It aims to create well-known Traditional Chinese Medicine brands.
Analysts from Zheshang stated that the Traditional Chinese Medicine sector is expected to reach a performance turning point in the second quarter of 2025, and the sector's market may start ahead of the performance turning point. The institution pointed out that with the gradual expansion of the scope of medical insurance overall payment, high gross margin/high sales medical insurance varieties that have competitive pricing will face price reduction risks. Traditional Chinese Medicine companies may achieve continuous growth in performance and stock prices through refined, intelligent, and systematic improvements in quality and efficiency. Zhongtai believes that looking forward to 2025, after experiencing cyclical fluctuations in demand and inventory in the post-COVID period, the Traditional Chinese Medicine sector is expected to return to normal growth, with a warm-up in the revenue end. At the same time, the relief of cost pressure for Traditional Chinese Medicine materials will also drive an upward correction in gross margin.
Editor/jayden
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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