Focus on the Hong Kong and US stock earnings season

Tencent, Meituan, and PDD Holdings all release their Earnings Reports this week, and the market is closely watching these numbers.

wallstreetcn · Mar 17 13:13

高盛预计，拼多多四季度利润同比增速将降至11%，Temu平台将继续调整其商业模式；美团核心本地商业利润将强劲增长46%，并可能继续在中东拓展其“Keeta”外卖业务，投资者将继续关注腾讯2025年的资本支出水平及其与股东回报间的平衡，预计其游戏业务将加速增长。

本周，中国互联网巨头 $腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$ 、 $美团-W (03690.HK)$ 和 $拼多多 (PDD.US)$ 将陆续发布2024年第四季度财报。根据高盛预测，得益于四季度中国商品和服务消费的强劲增长，腾讯、美团和拼多多将表现稳健，营收将分别同比增长8%、19%和24%，调整后EBIT（息税前利润）同比增长分别为22%、405%和11%。

3月17日，高盛分析师Ronald Keung、Lincoln Kong等发布研报称，本季投资者们更为关注的是管理层对2025年业绩的展望，特别是每股收益（EPS）的预期调整，因为本财报季至今，EPS预期调整方向与股价表现高度相关。

高盛预计，拼多多的Temu平台将继续调整其商业模式，而美团则可能继续在中东地区拓展其“Keeta”外卖业务，投资者将重点关注三大方向：

人工智能相关资本支出和应用计划、电商及本地生活服务竞争格局以及全球化战略和面临的政策环境变化。

腾讯：游戏业务加速增长17%，EPS超预期增长14%

自上次财报发布以来，腾讯股价上涨29%，高盛给予其“买入”评级，并预计其在2024年第四季度将呈现广告收入增速略有放缓、游戏业务加速增长、金融科技业务疲软而商业服务加速的格局：

游戏收入将增长17%，广告收入增长12%，调整后的集团EBIT将达到600亿元人民币，同比增长22%。
2025年EPS将略高于市场普遍预期的11%，同比增长14%。

报告还指出了腾讯财报季的几个重要关注点：

AI及资本支出上，随着腾讯将DeepSeek R1整合进微信AI搜索并可能推出AI助手功能，且考虑到腾讯去年回购股份约1030亿元人民币，并派发了约300-400亿元人民币的年度股息。报告认为，投资者将关注2025年的资本支出水平及其与股东回报之间的平衡。
游戏业务增长前景方面，高盛预计，腾讯经典游戏将保持健康增长，但由于mDnF在去年5月推出，下半年将面临高基数效应。《王者荣耀》和《和平精英》在2025年春节期间表现强劲将支撑上半年游戏收入增长。预计2024年第四季度游戏收入同比增长17%，2025年全年增速平稳在10%。
广告技术与电商方面，随着腾讯的广告产品3.0以及不断增长的微信小商店将扩大其广告目标市场。高盛预计第四季度在线广告收入同比增长13%，2025年加速至15%。

美团：核心本地业务强劲增长46%，关注GTV利润率

对于美团，高盛也给出了“买入”评级，并预计其第四季度核心本地商业利润将实现46%的强劲同比增长。高盛预计2024年第四季度：

外卖业务交易量将同比增长10%，食品外卖和到店、酒店及旅游 (IHT) EBIT为46亿元人民币(31.6%利润率)，集团EBIT为95亿元人民币。

分析师认为，市场关注的焦点主要集中在几个方面：

首先，投资者们将密切关注美团在生鲜零售（包括“美团买菜”和“美团优选”）、Keeta和人工智能/机器人技术领域的投资优先级。
其次是食品配送单位经济性。在线营销渗透率、用户补贴正常化和骑手社保成本是影响盈利能力的关键因素。高盛预计2025年美团食品配送平台GTV利润率将维持在3%左右。
最后是面对激烈的竞争，美团如何维持GTV和内容/商户覆盖方面的地位。高盛预计该部门调整后EBIT在2024年第四季度和2025财年分别同比增长37%和26%。

拼多多：利润增速将放缓至11%，Temu商业模式调整引关注

今年以来，拼多多股价上涨逾26%。高盛预计2024年第四季度拼多多EPS将增长5%，略低于市场共识的12%：

预计拼多多在线营销收入将达567亿元人民币，同比增长17%；交易佣金收入537亿元人民币，同比增长34%；调整后净利润284亿元人民币，同比增长11%。
预计拼多多第四季度利润同比增速降至11%（相比第三季度的48%），但考虑到季节性因素带来较大收入基数、Temu月活用户在第四季度增速放缓以及国内电器市场拓展有限，这意味着绝对利润额将小幅回升。

投资者关注的核心问题包括：

Temu商业模式调整：面对各国去最小化门槛政策和关税变化，Temu如何调整商业模式以增强平台韧性，特别是美国业务模式转型进展。
平台GMV增长动力：面对竞争对手加速增长以及存在新进入者，拼多多如何保持增长并维持抽佣率。
股东回报政策：鉴于其强大的自由现金流生成能力，市场期待拼多多可能进一步提高股东回报。

高盛预计，从2025年下半年开始，拼多多将受益于去年8月以来商家支持措施带来的低基数效应，盈利能力有望提升。

编辑/rice

Goldman Sachs expects that PDD Holdings' profit growth rate for the fourth quarter will decrease to 11% year-on-year, while the Temu platform will continue to adjust its Business model; Meituan's core local Business profits are projected to grow strongly by 46%, and it may continue to expand its "Keeta" food delivery service in the Middle East. Investors will continue to pay attention to Tencent's capital expenditure levels in 2025 and the balance with Shareholder returns, with expectations for its gaming Business to accelerate growth.

This week, Chinese Internet giants $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ and $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ will successively release their Q4 2024 Earnings Reports. According to Goldman Sachs' forecast, thanks to the strong growth of Consumer spending on goods and services in China during the fourth quarter, TENCENT, MEITUAN-W, and PDD Holdings will perform steadily, with revenue expected to grow by 8%, 19%, and 24% year-on-year, respectively, and adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) increasing by 22%, 405%, and 11% year-on-year, respectively.

On March 17, Goldman Sachs Analysts Ronald Keung, Lincoln Kong, and others released a Research Report stating that this season investors are more focused on management's outlook for 2025 performance, especially the expected adjustments to EPS, as this earnings report season so far has shown a high correlation between EPS expected adjustments and stock price performance.

Goldman Sachs expects PDD Holdings' Temu platform to continue adjusting its business model, while MEITUAN-W may continue to expand its "Keeta" delivery business in the Middle East. Investors will focus on three major areas:

capital expenditures and application plans related to AI, the competitive landscape of e-commerce and local living services, and changes in the Global Strategy and the regulatory environment.

TENCENT: Gaming business growth accelerated by 17%, EPS exceeded expectations with a growth of 14%.

Since the last earnings report was released, TENCENT's stock price has risen by 29%, and Goldman Sachs has given it a "Buy" rating, noting that it is expected in the fourth quarter of 2024 to show slightly slowing growth in advertising revenue, accelerated growth in gaming business, a slowdown in financial technology business, and accelerated growth in Business Services.

Game revenue is expected to grow by 17%, advertising revenue is expected to grow by 12%, and adjusted group EBIT will reach 60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%.
In 2025, EPS is expected to be slightly higher than the market's general expectation of 11%, with a year-on-year growth of 14%.

The report also pointed out several important focus points for TENCENT's earnings report season:

In terms of AI and capital expenditure, with TENCENT integrating DeepSeek R1 into its WeChat AI search and possibly launching AI assistant features, and considering TENCENT's share repurchase of approximately 103 billion yuan last year and the distribution of around 30-40 billion yuan in annual dividends. The report suggests that investors will focus on the capital expenditure level in 2025 and its balance with shareholder returns.
Regarding the growth prospects of the gaming business, Goldman Sachs expects TENCENT's classic games to maintain healthy growth. However, due to the launch of mDnF in May last year, it will face a high base effect in the second half of the year. "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" are expected to perform strongly during the 2025 Spring Festival, supporting growth in gaming revenue for the first half of the year. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2024, game revenue will grow by 17% year-on-year, with a stable growth rate of 10% for the whole year of 2025.
In terms of advertising technology and e-commerce, with TENCENT's advertising product 3.0 and the growing WeChat small store expanding its advertising target market. Goldman Sachs expects online advertising revenue to grow by 13% year-on-year in the fourth quarter and accelerate to 15% in 2025.

MEITUAN: core local business grows strongly by 46%, focusing on GTV profit margins.

For MEITUAN, Goldman Sachs also gave a "Buy" rating, expecting its fourth quarter core local business profits to achieve a strong 46% year-on-year growth. Goldman Sachs expects in the fourth quarter of 2024:

The transaction volume of the takeaway business is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, with food delivery and in-store, hotel, and tourism (IHT) EBIT reaching 4.6 billion yuan (31.6% profit margin), and group EBIT reaching 9.5 billion yuan.

Analysts believe that the market's focus is mainly on several aspects:

First, investors will closely watch MEITUAN's investment priorities in fresh retail (including "MEITUAN Grocery" and "MEITUAN Preferred"), Keeta, and AI/Siasun Robot&Automation technology.
Secondly, the economic efficiency of food delivery units is key. The penetration rate of online marketing, normalization of user subsidies, and social security costs for riders are key factors affecting profitability. Goldman Sachs expects the profit margin for MEITUAN's food delivery platform GTV to remain around 3% in 2025.
Lastly, in the face of fierce competition, how MEITUAN maintains its position in GTV and coverage of content/merchants is crucial. Goldman Sachs expects adjusted EBIT for this sector to grow 37% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 26% year-on-year in the fiscal year 2025.

PDD Holdings: Profit growth rate is expected to slow to 11%, with attention drawn to adjustments in the Temu business model.

Since the beginning of this year, PDD Holdings' stock price has risen by over 26%. Goldman Sachs expects PDD Holdings' EPS to grow by 5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly below the market consensus of 12%.

It is expected that PDD Holdings' online marketing revenue will reach 56.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%; transaction commission revenue will be 53.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%; adjusted net income will be 28.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%.
It is expected that PDD Holdings' profit growth rate in the fourth quarter will drop to 11% year-on-year (from 48% in the third quarter), but considering the large revenue base brought by seasonal factors, the slowdown in monthly active user growth for Temu in the fourth quarter, and the limited expansion in the domestic appliance market, this means that absolute profit amounts will see a slight recovery.

Core issues of concern for investors include:

Adjustments to the Temu business model: How Temu adjusts its business model to enhance platform resilience in the face of minimum threshold policies and tariff changes in various countries, especially the progress of the transition of the business model in the USA.
Growth drivers for platform GMV: In the face of accelerating growth from competitors and the presence of new entrants, how PDD Holdings can maintain growth and sustain commission rates.
Shareholder return policy: Given its strong free cash flow generation capabilities, the market expects PDD Holdings to possibly further enhance shareholder returns.

Goldman Sachs predicts that starting in the second half of 2025, PDD Holdings will benefit from the low base effect brought about by merchant support measures since last August, with profitability expected to improve.

Editor/rice

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

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