节后海外供给扰动，国内需求回暖，钾肥景气快速提升。海外来看，白俄罗斯正式宣布上半年减产100万吨产量，俄罗斯乌拉尔钾肥宣布Q2 检修将影响约30 万吨产量，同时美国宣布对加拿大钾肥加征10%的关税，情绪上也不断推动海外钾肥屯库，拉动景气回升。国内来看，根据百川资讯，由于季节因素影响，青海当地开工仅约4-5 成，港口国储备货需求导致流通货源偏紧，国内当前钾肥均价较年初上涨712 元/吨至3228 元/吨。Key investment points:
Company announcement: The company issued an “Prompt Notice on Changes in Shareholders' Equity”. Zhongnong Group, the shareholder holding 5% or more of the shares, recently signed an agreement on share transfer matters with Huineng Group, which holds more than 5% of the company's shares. Zhongnong Group plans to transfer its 46.2026 million unrestricted tradable shares (accounting for 5% of the company's total share capital) to Huineng Group through an agreement transfer. The consideration for this Huineng transaction was 22.8444 yuan/share, and the total transfer price of the underlying shares was 1.055 billion yuan. After this change in equity, Huineng Group's shareholding ratio in Asia Potassium International rose to 14.05%, making it the largest shareholder of a listed company. This change in equity will not result in a change in the company's status of no controlling shareholder or actual controller.
Open up an integrated pan-resource layout, and powerful shareholders enable the company to develop in the long term. Huineng Group is a leading enterprise in China's private coal industry, and has been at the top of the top 500 private enterprises in China for many years. According to the transfer agreement, Huineng Group clearly supports the retention of the original board of directors of China Agricultural Group and agreed that 50% of Potash International's domestic potash fertilizer sales will be distributed as a priority through Sino-agricultural channels. It is expected that it will rely on the Group's accumulated human resources and technical strength in the coal mining and coal chemical industry to help the company's “capital+resources+channel” linkage model.
Overseas supply was disrupted after the holiday season, domestic demand picked up, and the potash industry boomed rapidly. Overseas, Belarus officially announced a 1 million ton production cut in the first half of the year. Russia's Ural potash announced that Q2 maintenance will affect production by about 0.3 million tons. At the same time, the US announced a 10% tariff on Canadian potash fertilizer, which also continues to push overseas potash reserves and drive a recovery in the economy. From a domestic perspective, according to Baichuan information, due to seasonal factors, only about 4-5 percent of local construction has started in Qinghai. Due to demand for reserve goods in the port country, the distribution supply is tight. The current average domestic potash price has risen 712 yuan/ton to 3,228 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year.
The long-term growth logic remains unchanged, and the company's planning projects are progressing smoothly. In terms of scale, the company currently has 263.3 square kilometers of potash mineral rights in Khammouane Province, Laos, and the reserves of pure potassium chloride resources will exceed 1 billion tons. In April 2024, the company's third 1 million tons/year potash project was successfully selected for testing, and normal production of the second 1 million tons/year potash project is expected to resume in 2025. Looking ahead, the company is expected to achieve a potash fertilizer production and sales scale of 5 million tons/year, and will further expand to 7-10 million tons/year according to market demand. The future growth logic is clear.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Maintaining the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026, it is expected to achieve net profit of 0.743, 1.254, and 1.823 billion yuan. The corresponding PE valuations are 33X, 19X, and 13X, respectively, maintaining an increase in holdings ratings.
Core hypothetical risks: downstream demand falls short of expectations; progress of new projects falls short of expectations; overseas companies quickly release production capacity, and the competitive landscape deteriorates.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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