前两个月累计来看，巨子生物、毛戈平增速突出，丸美、上海家化改善显著，较其24年各季度增速有明显提升。38大促中，毛戈平表现亮眼，成功斩获抖音彩妆榜首。珀莱雅/韩束依旧稳守天猫/抖音美妆总榜第一。当前经济环境下性价比依然是消费主线，且国货美妆研发能力在国际认可度不断提高，竞争力不断增强，该行持续看好有高增长潜力、高业绩兑现度、以及经营改善显著的标的。CMB International released a Research Report stating that as of March 11, the beauty stocks it focuses on have risen by about 47%. It believes that under the current economic environment, cost-performance is the main theme of Consumer. The R&D capabilities of domestic beauty brands have gained international recognition, enhancing their competitiveness. The bank recommends focusing on high growth potential symbols such as Mao Geping (01318), Juzhi Bio (02367), Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology (603983.SH), and high performance fulfillment symbols such as Proya Cosmetics (603605.SH) and CHICMAX (02145). Additionally, it notes potential significant improvements in Operation for symbols like Shanghai Jahwa United (600315.SH) and BeautiFun (300957.SZ).
The main points from China Merchants International are as follows:
Data from February indicates that domestic brands made significant efforts on the Douyin platform, particularly in the skincare category, which saw strong growth.
Cumulatively looking at the last two months, Junzi Biotechnology and Mao Geping exhibited outstanding growth rates, while Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology and Shanghai Jahwa United showed significant improvement, with noticeable increases compared to their quarterly growth rates in 2024. During the 38 major promotions, Mao Geping performed remarkably, successfully clinching the top spot on Douyin's cosmetics chart. Proya Cosmetics/Hanshu still firmly hold the number one position in the overall beauty rankings on Tmall/Douyin. Under the current economic environment, cost performance remains the main line of consumption, and the international recognition of domestic beauty research and development capabilities continues to rise, with competitiveness continuously strengthened. The firm remains Bullish on symbols with high growth potential, high performance realization, and significant operational improvement.
In February, domestic brands made significant contributions on the Douyin platform.
According to Magic Mirror data, the online GMV of beauty products in February (covering both Taobao and Douyin platforms, including skincare and makeup categories) increased by 18% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, reaching 31.6 billion yuan. The growth is mainly attributed to the strong performance of domestic skincare brands on the Douyin platform, with notable performances from Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology (up 336% year-on-year/up 87% month-on-month), Mao Geping (up 274% year-on-year/up 168% month-on-month), and Lushang Freda Pharmaceutical (up 141% year-on-year/up 132% month-on-month) (the above are data for these brands in the Douyin skincare category). In terms of monthly GMV by platform, Douyin's growth outperformed the Taobao universe (up 38% year-on-year/up 8% month-on-month vs. down 3% year-on-year/down 7% month-on-month); across categories, the skincare segment outperformed the makeup segment (up 22% year-on-year/up 9% month-on-month vs. up 9% year-on-year/down 13% month-on-month).
The cumulative GMV for 2M25 increased by 10% year-on-year (compared to an increase of 2% in January 2025).
Among them, the brands that performed excellently year-on-year are Juzhi Bio (up 85%), Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology (up 85%), Shanghai Jahwa United (up 58%), and Mao Geping (up 38%). Compared to the year-on-year growth rates of the previous quarter in 2024, the growth rates for Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology and Shanghai Jahwa United have significantly improved. The following brands have shown good performance across different categories and platforms: Taobao skincare: CHICMAX +77%/Juzhi Bio +50%/Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology +40%/Shanghai Jahwa United +35%; Douyin skincare: Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology +186%/Mao Geping +147%/Shanghai Jahwa United +146%/Juzhi Bio +111%; Taobao makeup: Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology +21%/Mao Geping +10%/L'Oreal +7%/Chanel +2%; Douyin makeup: Chanel +1248%/Lancôme +75%/Estee Lauder +65%/Proya Cosmetics (color variety) +30%/Mao Geping +35%/Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology (love fire) +23%.
Mao Geping stood out during the 38th Women's Day promotions.
In the promotional week around International Women's Day (3.3-3.8), Proya Cosmetics/Kan Shu continued to hold the top positions on Tmall/Douyin. Proya Cosmetics leaped from 4th last year to 2nd in the Douyin beauty ranking, and Caitang rose from 17th last year to 9th in the Douyin makeup ranking. Mao Geping made his debut on the list, ranking 16th/17th in Tmall/Douyin beauty respectively, and topped the Douyin makeup ranking for the first time.
Risk warning: New product development not meeting expectations, product quality risks, and channel expansion not meeting expectations, etc.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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