Matters:

1. On February 12, 2025, DoorDash, a leading US takeout delivery company, released financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024.

2. On February 11, 2025, according to the official account of the JD Blackboard News, JD Takeout officially launched a “quality dine-in restaurant business” recruitment, announcing that businesses that settled in before May 1, 2025 will be commission-free throughout the year.

Guoxin Social Service Opinions:

1) DoorDash maintained strong growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and actively explored the AI layout. DoorDash was founded in 2013 and has now grown to become the absolute leader in the US takeout delivery market. According to EarnestAnalytics data for November 2024, the company's market share reached 63%, followed by Uber Eats (25%) and Grubhub (6.2%). In 2024, DoorDash earned $10.72 billion/ +24%, and GAAP net profit for the period turned a profit of $0.123 billion for the first time, compared to a loss of $0.154 billion in the same period last year. 2024Q4's operating performance was strong, with the company's revenue of 2.87 billion dollars/ +25%, GAAP net profit of 0.141 billion dollars, and loss of 0.154 billion dollars in the same period last year; total transaction volume (GOV) of 21.3 billion/ +21% in the fourth quarter, total order volume reached 0.685 billion/ +19%, and order volume & total transaction volume grew strongly year-on-year. It is worth noting that since 2023, DoorDash has continued to increase its AI layout, and launched an AI voice phone ordering service in August 2023, which can achieve autonomous orders during peak restaurant traffic periods and improve restaurant operating efficiency and sales; AI tools represented by DasHai (launched in 2023, chatbot assisted search with built-in apps) and SafeChat+ (launched in 2024 to detect whether communication between customers and takeaways contains abusive or harassing remarks) focuses on optimizing the app search and user experience . We believe that DoorDash's AI layout ideas can also provide some reference for Meituan Layout AI.

2) JD entered takeout, but the impact on Meituan was relatively manageable. Looking at merchant resources, JD Takeout mainly promotes “quality dine-in restaurant merchants” and mainly leading restaurant chains. Naturally, such brands have strong traffic, and their commission and advertising revenue contributions are actually far lower than those of long-tail small and medium-sized businesses, so the impact of JD's entry into Meituan's basic market is limited. Furthermore, in the JD local lifestyle sector, apart from JD's instant delivery, there is a relative lack of in-store experience, and it takes time to accumulate and obtain merchant resources. Second, judging from JD's takeout business positioning, unlike Meituan/Hungry, which have independent apps, JD Takeout is only set up under the “Fast Delivery” page (juxtaposed with the supermarket's convenient and urgent digital section). The takeout layout is more of an addition to JD's rich instant retail sector, and it remains to be seen whether investment will increase in the future. Considering that consumers' dependency on Meituan and Hungry has formed, it is also worth observing the effects of JD Takeout on users' mentality. In summary, considering the accumulation of resources of JD merchants and the auxiliary position of takeout, at a time when the takeout market pattern is relatively stable, the impact of JD's entry into Meituan's leading position is expected to be limited, and if they want to get a share in the long term, they will also require significant investment. Therefore, we are still optimistic about the development of Meituan's takeout business supported by its core competitiveness.

3) Investment advice: We maintain the company's 2024-2026 revenue forecast of 338.2/391.4/445.7 billion yuan, adjusted net profit forecast of 43/52.2/58.5 billion yuan, corresponding PE of 23/19/17x. As mentioned above, Meituan's core competitiveness in the takeaway industry is still stable, and no strong competitors have been observed in the short term. Short-term stock price disturbances brought about by new entrants have instead given the market a good buying point. Driven by breakthroughs in Deepseek Technology, China's technology assets, represented by Hang Seng Technology, are undergoing a revaluation of the market, and Meituan is expected to continue to benefit; secondly, as a representative of the consumer internet, the company can be expected to further accelerate growth in the future and can be expected to further accelerate growth. We are still firmly optimistic that the company's platform will fully explore potential growth and maintain a “superior to the market” rating.

3) Risk warning: Macroeconomic pressure is declining; competition in external industries is intensifying; industry policies are being tightened; new business investment is increasing, etc.