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美股前瞻 | 俄罗斯应战了!美联储提高回购操作规模

US stock outlook | Russia is ready to fight! The Federal Reserve increased the scale of repurchase operations

富途资讯 ·  Mar 9, 2020 20:29

European stocks plummeted at the start of the day, with the Nasdaq ETF-Proshares triple shorting (SQQQ) up 20% before trading. Overseas confirmed a total of 30406 cases of COVID-19; US media: people who shook hands with Trump have just confirmed contact with confirmed cases; Apple Inc's mobile phone sales in China fell 61 per cent year-on-year.

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Global macro

  • Us stock index futures fell more than 4% before trading.

The yield on the US two-year Treasury note fell 25 basis points to 0.25 per cent, the Dow's 30 components fell across the board, and the Nasdaq ETF-Proshares triple shorting (SQQQ) is now up nearly 20 per cent.

In addition, the pre-market decline of US oil stocks continued to expand.$Western Oil (OXY.US) $Drop by more than 35%$Schlumberger (SLB.US) $$ConocoPhillips (COP.US) $跌25%,$BP P.L.C. (BP.US) $Oil fell by nearly 20%

S & p 500 futures suffered one of the biggest declines in history on Sunday night, and the s & p 500 may be less than 4% short of the traditional bear market definition of a 20% decline-and possibly closer. The sell-off on Sunday night triggered the limit, limiting losses to 5 per cent. So investors don't know how bad the sell-off will be when normal trading resumes.

If a 20% decline is completed by April 1, it would be the fastest fall in history from a record high to a bear market. During the Great Depression of 1929, the end of the bull market took 42 days.

  • The Federal Reserve has increased the scale of overnight and regular repurchase operations.

Federal Reserve: overnight repo operations have increased from at least $100 billion to $150 billion. Regular repurchase operations will increase from $20 billion to $45 billion this week. In addition, the panic indicator of the US credit market recorded the biggest increase since the 2008 financial crisis.

  • Dansk Bank: the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by at least 100 basis points

The basic scenario is that the us will lower its interest rate range to 0 per cent and 0.25 per cent within the next two months. The Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in March, and it would not be surprising if the decision was made ahead of time. However, the Fed is expected to rule out negative interest rates and replace them with stronger forward guidance.

According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 100bp to 0-0.25 per cent in March is as high as 66.8 per cent, compared with a previous estimate of 41.1 per cent.

  • White House Press Secretary: Trump continues to hold campaign rallies

Earlier, US President Trump was photographed shaking hands with Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Alliance (ACU), on February 29th. Worryingly, Shrapp confirmed on March 8 local time that he had had brief contact with COVID-19.

White House Press Secretary Grisham later issued a statement saying: there is no indication that Trump or Pence have seen or approached the infected person. Asked if he was worried about infecting novel coronavirus, Trump responded that he was "not worried at all" and stressed that he would not cancel any political rallies.

  • Russian hard bar Saudi oil price war

Russia can afford to keep oil prices at $25 to $30 a barrel for six to 10 years, and the national wealth fund is more than $150 billion, which can be used in the event of long-term low oil prices, according to the Russian Ministry of Finance.

Related information |Russia is ready!

  • China's Foreign Ministry responds to the collapse in global crude oil prices

China is a big country of energy import and consumption in the world. We hope that the international energy market will remain stable. Under the influence of the epidemic, there are many predictions about the prospects of the world economy. At this time, it is of special significance for the international energy market to maintain stability.

Photo Source: PIXABAY

  • European stock markets tumbled across the board.

As of press time, Germany's DAX index fell more than 7.48%, France's CAC 40 index fell 7.65%, London's FTSE 100 index fell 7.08%, and the pan-European Stoxx 50 index fell 7.81%.

  • Crude oil plummeted

As of press time, London Brent crude fell $10.3, or about 22.75%, to 34.97 per barrel. Us WTI crude oil futures fell $9.57, or about 23.18%, to $31.66 a barrel.

Hot news

  • Trip.com 's internal letter:CEO and the board of directors will get zero salary, and senior executives will voluntarily cut their salaries.

$TRIP COM GRP LTD (TCOM.US) $CEO Sun Jie released an internal letter today saying that starting from this month, she and Chairman Liang Jianzhang will receive zero salary; company executives have also proposed a voluntary pay cut, with a minimum salary of half, until the industry recovers; other employees have suspended salary increases; and front-line employees in the service department can raise their salaries normally.

  • Changes in Weibo Corp's senior management

$Weibo Corp (WB.US) $Wang Yajuan, senior vice president in charge of advertising, left her job for personal reasons, effective March 9, 2020.

  • Sogou Q4 net profit increased by 44% over the same period last year.

$Sogou (SOGO.US) $Non-GAAP net profit was $39 million, up 44 per cent from a year earlier, above market expectations of $33 million and down 19.2 per cent year-on-year to $105 million. Sogou expects revenue in the first quarter of 2020 to range from $2.4 to $260 million, down 5 to 3 per cent from a year earlier.

Photo source: official website

  • Sohu.com Ltd Q4 has a net loss of US $18 million

$Sohu.com Ltd (SOHU.US) $Total revenue in the fourth quarter rose 5 per cent year-on-year to $490 million, $13 million higher than expected, and 5 per cent year-on-year growth of 5 per cent to a net loss of $18 million and an expected loss of $21 million, compared with a net loss of $51 million for non-GAAP.

  • Total revenue of Changyou Q4 increased by 35% over the same period last year.

$Changyou (CYOU.US) $Fourth-quarter revenue totaled $135 million, up 35% from a year earlier. TGAP's net profit was $59 million, $28.1 million higher than expected; non-GAAP net profit was $63 million. Changyou expects total revenue of between $100m and $110 million in the first quarter of 2020.

  • The net income of 51Talk:2019 in the fourth quarter is 397.9 million yuan.

$CHINA ONLINE EDUCATION GROUP (COE.US) $Release the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2019. According to the performance report, net income in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 397.9 million yuan, up 33.5 percent from a year earlier, while Non-GAAP 's net profit was 5.26 million yuan, compared with a net loss of 132.4 million yuan in the same period last year.

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Photo source: official website

  • NIO Inc. fell sharply before the market, and the collapse of crude oil had an impact on the new energy industry.

In addition, January 2020$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $Only 1598 cars were delivered, down 11.5% from the same period last year. NIO Inc. said the decrease was mainly due to the relatively early Spring Festival holiday in 2020 and fewer working days in January. Affected by public health events, NIO Inc. 's Q1 car sales in 2020 may not be optimistic.

  • Twitter board authorizes $2 billion share buyback program

$Twitter (TWTR.US) $Will work with Silver Lake Capital and Elliott Management. Silver Lake Capital will contribute $1 billion. Egon Durban, CEO of Silver Lake Capital, and Jesse Cohen, managing partner of Elliott, will be members of the board.

  • Sales of Apple Inc's mobile phones in China fell 61% in February compared with the same period last year.

2月$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Sales of mobile phones in China were 494000, compared with 1.27 million in the same period last year, and shipments just stabilized at 2 million last month. IDC: overall Q1 smartphone shipments are expected to fall by about 40 per cent this year as the outbreak has hit demand and affected the supply chain.

Photo source: official website

In addition, Apple Inc will launch the parity iPhone SE 2 at the end of March and begin to accept orders on the release date. A source inside Apple Inc revealed that the price of the upcoming iPhone SE2 will start at $399, because Apple Inc hopes it can ship as much as possible to boost the overall shipments of iPhone in 2020.

  • Macy's will close 125 stores and cut 2000 jobs

$Macy's (M.US) $It will close 125 of the most profitable stores and cut 2000 company jobs within three years. The store closures account for about 1/5 of the total, with annual sales of $1.4 billion, and the company plans to close offices in Cincinnati and San Francisco, leaving only its only headquarters in New York.

Financial and economic notice

As North America enters daylight saving time, the US market will open and close one hour earlier from Monday, March 9.The trading hours of US stocks were changed to 21:30 to 04:00 Beijing time, 16:00 to 21:30 before trading and 04:00 to 08:00 after hours.

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Edit / Grace

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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