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特朗普并未“火力全开”将令美元承压?大摩:交易员正等待一个抛售时机!

Trump has not "fully unleashed" his firepower, which could put pressure on the dollar? Morgan Stanley: Traders are waiting for a selling opportunity!

cls.cn ·  Jan 24 05:01

Morgan Stanley stated that while many are Bullish on the dollar, there are even more investors looking to Sell the dollar, and they are ready with funds, just waiting for a Short Sell signal.

According to a report on January 24 by Caixin, Morgan Stanley stated that despite the dollar's dominance sweeping the entire market, traders seeking to Sell this global reserve currency are far more numerous than people imagine.

Led by David Adams, Morgan Stanley's strategists wrote in a report: 'While many are Bullish on the dollar and may be the most candid in expressing their views, it seems that there are more 'silent' investors who intend to Sell the dollar. Many have prepared funds, just waiting for a Short Sell signal.'

Currently, Morgan Stanley recommends Short Selling the dollar against the euro, yen, and British Pound because a dollar weakness is expected.

The strategists wrote: 'Investors may be more willing to quickly increase their dollar Short Sell positions than dollar bulls expect, and their confidence is stronger. For them, it's more about timing than direction.'

Moreover, the team also stated that a catalyst may be on the way: inflation data before March could increase the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut, while prolonged fiscal negotiations in Congress could disappoint dollar bulls. The report noted that strategists expect trade policy will result in milder outcomes, which may also pressure the dollar.

Previously, investors, including hedge funds, rushed to Buy Call positions on the dollar because they believed that the policies of the new USA president, Donald Trump, would hit other currencies, exacerbating price pressure and keeping USA interest rates high. This also increased the risk of significant market volatility if the dollar reversed its trend.

In the past quarter, the dollar has risen against almost all major currencies. The dollar appreciated by more than 2% against currencies like the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar, which suffered due to the risks of increased USA tariffs.

Nevertheless, since Trump's inauguration, traders have primarily focused on his actions regarding Trade rather than his statements, which has fostered a cautiously optimistic sentiment, as his first few days in office only brought threats rather than the radical tariff assaults he promised during his campaign.

World Trade Organization Director-General Iweala also stated at the Davos World Economic Forum not to be 'overly anxious' about Trump's tariff threats.

Can we remain calm? I think we should not be overly concerned about tariff issues. Let's wait and see what actually happens. Currently, there is much speculation about possible actions, but none of these have materialized yet.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.