share_log

天风证券郭明錤:GB200 NVL72量产能见度低,警惕英伟达短期风险

Tianfeng's Ming-Chi Kuo: The mass production capacity of the GB200 NVL72 is low, beware of NVIDIA's short-term risks.

wallstreetcn ·  Jan 14 03:57

Ming-Chi Kuo stated that the shipment volume of the GB200 NVL72 may be significantly lower than expected, currently about 25,000 to 35,000 units. More seriously, repeated delays have resulted in insufficient market confidence; even though the stock price reacted positively in advance, the lack of market confidence can easily amplify or overly interpret related market rumors.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The GB200 NVL72 has been delayed multiple times, and Ming-Chi Kuo believes that it may not be able to ship in large quantities until the first half of 2026, later than the market's general expectation of the second quarter of 2025.

On Monday local time, Tianfeng Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released an analysis report stating that the shipment volume of the GB200 NVL72 may significantly fall short of expectations.

The production schedule for the assembly of the GB200 NVL72 has been delayed as follows: September 2024 → December 2024 → Q1 2025 → Q2 2025 (latest). The repeated delays in large shipments have resulted in lower-than-expected shipment volumes. Currently, it is anticipated that the GB200 NVL72 shipments in 2025 will be around 25,000 to 35,000 units, significantly below last year's market's most optimistic expectation of 50,000 to 80,000 units.

Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the greatest impact on market sentiment currently may not be the change in shipment volumes, but rather the negative impact on market confidence resulting from the repeated delays of the GB200 NVL72.

Specifically, Ming-Chi Kuo stated:

The development time for general servers (x86) from project initiation to mass shipment typically requires 1 to 1.5 years, and if it involves platform upgrades or critical technology upgrades, it may take 1.5 to 2 years.

The GB200 NVL72 significantly enhances computing power and adopts various advanced technologies that lack production experience, making the development difficulty much higher than that of general servers. Even with NVIDIA integrating the world's top development resources for server supply chains, a reasonable estimate for development time still requires 1.5 to 2 years. In contrast to the repeated delays of the GB200 NVL72, it is clear that insufficient development time is the main reason for the delays.

The case opening time for GB200 NVL72 is in Q4 2023, and if the reasonable development time starts from 1.5 to 2 years, Q2 2025 is a reasonable and optimistic expectation. However, it wouldn't be surprising if it is postponed again to the second half of 2025 (if this happens, it will strike market confidence again).

Currently, the lower specification models of GB200 and several orders from HGX consume GPUs equivalent to only about 2,000-4,000 cabinets of GB200 NVL72, which has limited help in boosting market confidence.

The lack of market confidence may lead to the following negative impacts:

Currently, the most unfavorable factor for market sentiment is that, although the supply chain expects GB200 NVL72 to ship in large quantities in Q2 2025, investors have insufficient confidence in this commitment without seeing evidence of substantial shipments.

Even though some suppliers or customers had posted photos of small quantities/sample shipments of GB200 NVL72, it has limited help for Nvidia or supply chain stock prices because investors focus on clear evidence of substantial shipments (such as supply chain investigations, revenue, etc.).

Share prices may react to positive news in advance, but with insufficient market confidence, related market rumors (which may not necessarily be entirely true) can easily be exaggerated or overinterpreted, such as the previous instance of ASIC replacing Nvidia AI chips, and recent expansions related to CoWoS.

GB300 NVL72 also has several key specification upgrades that require development time, so it is more likely that it will not ship in large quantities until the first half of 2026. Due to low visibility in mass production, the related positive news has limited help in boosting market confidence in the short term.

Since the shipping issues are related to the supply side rather than the demand side, and with Taiwan Semiconductor cautiously expanding production while advanced processes are Scarce Resources, unless there are several more delays with GB200 NVL72, Nvidia will not cut orders in the short term.

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment

    Statement

    This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.