海外销量加速成长 打开全球市场。2024 年全年长安海外销量53.6 万辆，同比+53.0%。2025 年，公司要在海外新建经营主体8 个、物流节点16 个、28条线路、渠道触点550+个，完成泰国罗勇工厂和独联体区域KD 项目投产、召开欧洲品牌发布会、完成巴西子公司设立、中东非全面导入长安/深蓝/阿维塔三大品牌等五件大事；其中泰国布局的全球“右舵生产基地”产能将在2025Q1 实现投产，首期产能10 万辆，二期后总产能将增加至20 万辆。公司全球化思路清晰、步伐坚定，有望打开长期增长空间。Incident: The company released the December production and sales report: the Group's wholesale sales volume in December was 0.251 million vehicles, +16.6% year over year, -9.6% month on month; 2024 cumulative total 2.684 million vehicles, +5.1% year over year. Wholesale sales of autonomous passenger cars in December were 0.15 million units, +32.0% YoY, -20.4%; 2024 had a cumulative total of 1.668 million units, +4.5% YoY; Changan Ford's December wholesale sales volume was 0.03 million units, +5.7% YoY, +18.3%; 2024 had a cumulative total of 0.247 million units, +6.0% YoY; Changan Mazda's December wholesale sales volume was 0.008 million vehicles, -27.4% YoY , -7.0% month-on-month; cumulative total of 0.076 million vehicles in 2024, -14.7% YoY.
Sales of autonomous passenger vehicles have been steadily increasing, and new energy sources have increased dramatically. In December, the wholesale sales volume of the company's autonomous passenger cars was 0.15 million units, and the total volume of 2024 was 1.668 million units, +4.5% year-on-year. Driven by the subsidy policy and the promotion of the company's new energy vehicle sales, autonomous passenger vehicles grew steadily. In terms of new energy, the wholesale sales volume of autonomous new energy vehicles in December was 0.091 million units, with a cumulative total of 0.735 million units in 2024, +52.8%; of these, Deep Blue sold 0.244 million units, +89.4% year over year; Avita 7.4 units, +166.7% year over year, the new Avita 07 model contributed to an increase; and Kaiyuan sold 0.146 million vehicles, a significant year-on-year increase. Looking ahead to 2025, the Group's sales target is 3 million vehicles, and the new energy sales target is 1 million vehicles. The company will launch new products such as Avita 06, Deep Blue S09, and Changan Qiyuan C798 to guarantee the fuel base while accelerating the electrification transformation.
Avita and Deep Blue accelerate the transformation of new energy sources. In 2024, the Dark Blue and Avita brands achieved significant sales growth of 0.244 and 0.074 million vehicles, respectively. Looking ahead to 2025, Deep Blue plans to launch two new models, including the S09. Among them, the Deep Blue S09 uses a six-seater layout and is equipped with the industry-leading Huawei Qiancun Smart Driving ADS 3.0, while also accelerating the global layout and launching more global products. The global annual sales target for 2025 is 0.5 million units (0.4 million units in China and 0.1 million units overseas). On the Avita side, the new models mainly include the Avita 06 and the facelift models of the Avita 12 and Avita 07. The Avita 06 will be equipped with the Huawei Qiankun Smart Drive ADS 3.0 and Hongmeng 4.0 vehicle systems. Compared with the Avita 11/12/07, the price is expected to drop further, helping Avita achieve the sales target of 0.22 million vehicles. We are optimistic about the company's subsequent acceleration of new energy transformation.
Overseas sales are growing at an accelerated pace, opening up the global market. Changan sold 0.536 million vehicles overseas in 2024, +53.0% year-on-year. In 2025, the company will build 8 new overseas operators, 16 logistics nodes, 28 lines, and 550+ channel contacts, complete the commissioning of Thailand's Rayong plant and KD project in the CIS region, hold a European brand conference, complete the establishment of a Brazilian subsidiary, and fully introduce the three major brands in the Middle East and Africa. Among them, the production capacity of the global “right steering production base” with Thai layout will be put into operation by 2025Q1. The total production capacity will increase to 0.1 million vehicles after the second phase. The company has a clear approach to globalization and a firm pace, which is expected to open up room for long-term growth.
Investment advice: We are optimistic about the company's electric intelligence transformation, combined with Huawei's intelligent power to maintain profit forecasts. We expect revenue for 2024-2026 to be 163/188.6/212.1 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 6.07/8.24/10.79 billion yuan, and EPS of 0.61/0.83/1.09 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 12.75 yuan/share on January 3, 2025. PE is 21/15/12 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Industry demand declined; independent brand sales fell short of expectations; industry “price war” intensified; export sales fell short of expectations.