今年投资者蜂拥进入人工智能股票市场，可能过度高估了AI技术的短期潜力，增加了股价“回调”的风险。Vanguard economist Joe Davis stated that the market has overestimated the short-term potential of AI technology, with current valuation levels approaching those of 1997, increasing the risk of a stock price "pullback". It is difficult to determine the timing of the pullback, and it is unknown whether it will start in 2025.
The AI boom is driving up US stocks, and this frenzy may be brewing a potential market adjustment.
On Wednesday, Joe Davis, Chief Economist of Vanguard, the world's second largest asset management company, issued a warning:
This year, investors rushing into the AI stock market may have overestimated the short-term potential of AI technology, increasing the risk of stock price 'pullback.' It is difficult to determine the timing of the pullback, and unsure if it will start in 2025.
Vanguard's cautious statements further intensify the fierce debate among investors: after a significant rise in recent months, are stocks that have risen with the wave of artificial intelligence overvalued?
Davis further points out:
Currently, the market's expectation of the impact of AI has reached about a 90% probability, while he believes that the actual likelihood of AI surpassing the influence of personal computers is only 60% to 65%.
He compares the current economic situation to that of 1992, with market valuations more akin to those of 1997, implying a potential bubble risk in the current market.
Stocks related to ai have become the main driving force behind the rise of the US stock market, with the s&p 500 index up 27% year-to-date, with about one-fifth of the increase coming from chip maker nvidia. As a core chip supplier for AI, Nvidia's stock price has skyrocketed over 180% this year. Not only that, other technology giants have also benefited greatly from betting on AI, such as OpenAI's valuation reaching astonishing heights.
Although AI technology may bring revolutionary impact in the next few years, Davis believes:
Currently, companies most closely related to the AI investment boom may not necessarily become the ultimate biggest beneficiaries. The real beneficiaries may be non-technology industry companies that actually apply AI technology, such as hospitals, utilities, and financial companies.