按照过去的惯例，确认新首相需要拿到1. The latest report indicates that japan's parliament will hold a prime ministerial election as soon as November 11th; 2. The long-ruling "LDP-Komeito coalition" failed to win a majority of votes and also failed to persuade the main opposition parties to join the coalition; 3. Due to japan's election rules, the deadlock will not prevent japan from choosing a prime minister in November.
Caifex News November 1st (Edited by Shi Zhengcheng) As we enter November 2024, the global market's attention is increasingly focused on the US presidential election. However, in the Asian region, the aftermath of another major election has not yet subsided - there is still no clear indication of who will be the next prime minister of japan.
Against the background, in last Sunday's japanese House of Representatives election, the long-ruling "LDP-Komeito coalition" (Liberal Democratic Party + Komeito) only won 215 seats (down from 279 before the election), with the remaining 250 seats, 238 went to the opposition parties, and 12 to independent legislators.
According to past practice, confirming a new prime minister requires obtaining votes from half of the parliament (233 votes), but the current situation suggests that this year's situation may be quite different.
Unsuccessful persuasion in negotiations
Currently, it seems difficult for the LDP-Komeito coalition (215 seats) and the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (148 seats), to surpass the challenge of reaching 233 seats through forming an alliance. According to the latest reports, the Democratic Party for the People, with 28 seats, is still unwilling to join the ruling coalition and has also decided not to form a coalition government with the Constitutional Democratic Party. It is reported that the Democratic Party for the People refuses to join the ruling coalition, in part due to significant opposition from the powerful support behind them - the Japan Trade Union Confederation.
At the same time, the far-right political party Japan Restoration Association (38 seats) also refused to join the Liberal Democratic Party alliance.
Therefore, the balance of the whole incident is gradually tilting towards a minority government led by Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister - for each policy implementation, he would need the support of some small parties in parliament.
The leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Yuichiro Tamaki, stated in a press conference this week that we will cooperate on every policy, support good policies, and reject bad ones. When asked about budget issues, he emphasized that the Liberal Democratic Party alliance 'needs to understand that if they do not listen seriously to the people's wishes, their budget proposal will not pass.'
Deadlock does not prevent the selection of the Prime Minister.
Unlike the familiar European and American parliaments to investors, the current deadlock in Japanese politics does not prevent the parliamentary selection of the Prime Minister, with the special session of this election expected to be held on November 11th.
According to Japan's election rules, if no candidate receives the required 233 votes in the first round of parliamentary elections, a second round runoff will be held. Based on the current situation, it should be a showdown between Shigeru Ishiba and the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Yoshihiko Noda.
The key point is that under Japanese parliamentary rules, all other votes in the runoff, apart from those for the two candidates, are considered invalid votes. So, in this round, one only needs to receive a relative majority of votes to be elected as the Prime Minister of Japan.
Currently, this rule appears to be advantageous for Shigeru Ishiba's re-election.
The Democratic Party of the People's Republic of Japan stated that the current plan is to write Yuichiro Tamaki's name on the ballot in the general election. Excluding 28 invalid votes, the 'JiKo Alliance' now has 215 votes, while even if the Constitutional Democratic Party rallies all the opposition parties, they only have 210 votes.
The remaining focus will be on both sides vying for the votes of the 12 independent lawmakers, while closely monitoring the movements of the Democratic Party of the People's Republic of Japan.
Yuichiro Tamaki admitted that there had been contact between senior officials of the Democratic Party of the People's Republic of Japan and the Liberal Democratic Party, and he also did not rule out having a party leader meeting with Shigeru Ishiba. The Japanese media summarized that compared to the more left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party, the policies of the Democratic Party of the People's Republic of Japan are more in line with those of the Liberal Democratic Party in the fields of foreign affairs, security, and energy.
Editor/ping