维持“增持”评级。2024年前三季度公司实现营收104.74亿元，同比下降6.12%，实现归母净利润1.83 亿元，同比下降78.92%，受到钒产品价格下跌影响，公司业绩降幅较大。2024Q1-Q3 公司归母净利润分别为0.68、0.69、0.46 亿元，3 季度利润进一步下行。考虑到钒价格的大幅下跌，下调公司2024-25 年归母净利润预测为2.15/4.35亿元（原15.07/17.34 亿元），新增2026 年归母净利润预测为5.83 亿元，对应EPS 分别为0.02/0.05/0.06 元。参考同类公司，给予公司2024 年2.5 倍PB 进行估值，下调公司目标价至3.35 元（原4.2 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Against the backdrop of falling vanadium prices, the company's results for the first three quarters of 2024 declined sharply. The company's production is stable, and the output of vanadium and titanium products remains stable. It is expected that as downstream demand improves, the company's performance will gradually recover.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.12%, and realized net profit of 0.183 billion yuan to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 78.92%. Affected by falling prices of vanadium products, the company's performance declined significantly. 2024Q1-Q3's net profit to mother was 0.068, 0.069, and 0.046 billion yuan, respectively, and profit declined further in the third quarter. Considering the sharp drop in vanadium prices, the company's 2024-25 net profit forecast was lowered to 0.215/0.435 billion yuan (originally 1.507/1.734 billion yuan), and the net profit forecast for 2026 was 0.583 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.02/0.05/0.06 yuan, respectively. Referring to similar companies, the company was valued at 2.5 times PB in 2024, and the company's target price was lowered to 3.35 yuan (originally 4.2 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
The company's production is stable, and falling vanadium prices are dragging down profits. In the first half of 2024, the company sold 0.0257 million tons of vanadium products, up 6.02% year on year. Sales of titanium slag and titanium dioxide were 0.0988 and 0.1286 million tons respectively, down 7.13% and 2.35% respectively. The company's overall production was stable. The average sales price of vanadium products in the first half of the year was 0.083 million yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.034 million tons, a decrease of 29%. The operating income of vanadium products fell 25% in the first half of the year. Affected by the decline in demand for rebar mainly downstream of vanadium products, vanadium products showed an oversupply situation in 2024, and the price of vanadium products fell, dragging down the company's profits. With the continuous implementation of current real estate and infrastructure policies, it is expected that demand for vanadium products will decline and rise steadily, and the company's profits in the vanadium sector will gradually pick up.
Export performance is good, and profits from titanium products are stable. In the first half of 2024, China's titanium dioxide production was 2.3858 million tons, up 20.93% year on year. Domestic demand declined due to the decline in real estate, but exports increased 16.31% year on year in the first half of the year, hedging the decline in domestic demand. The company's profit in the titanium sector was stable in the first half of the year. Revenue from titanium slag and titanium dioxide increased by 6.01% and 23.1%, respectively. The profit of the titanium sector is expected to be relatively stable.
The vanadium battery industry chain is developing steadily. In February '23, the company signed a “Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement” with the Panzhihua Government and Dalian Rongke to jointly promote the industrialization of vanadium batteries. As of the 3rd quarter of 2024, the company has provided Dalian Rongke with a total of more than 0.016 million tons of high-quality raw materials to prepare vanadium electrolytes (minus vanadium pentoxide). The safety of vanadium batteries is outstanding, and demand is expected to rise steadily in the future.
Risk warning: Vanadium battery technology is progressing slowly, and demand for real estate continues to decline.