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US Stock Market Outlook: US August non-farm payrolls below expectations, short-term rise in three major futures indices! Traders raise expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.

Futu News · 20:42

热点要闻

周五盘前，三大期指盘前短线拉升，美国8月非农数据公布

美国8月季调后非农就业人口14.2万人，预期16万人，前值由11.4万人修正为8.9万人。美国8月失业率录得4.2%，符合市场预期，创今年6月来新低，为连续四个月上升以来首次下降。

美国劳工统计局：6月份非农新增就业人数从17.9万人修正至11.8万人；7月份非农新增就业人数从11.4万人修正至8.9万人。修正后，6月和7月新增就业人数合计较修正前低8.6万人。

非农就业数据发布后，交易员上调美联储年内降息幅度预期。交易员预计本月美联储有50%的可能性降息50个基点。

博通盘前跌超6%，Q3半导体业务收入增速放缓，Q4营收指引逊预期

$博通 (AVGO.US)$ 盘前跌8.4%，报139.98美元。消息面上，博通公布2024财年第三财季业绩，营收130.72亿美元，同比增长47%，分析师预期129.7亿美元；其中，包括AI定制芯片在内的半导体解决方案业务部门营收72.74亿美元，增速意外放缓至5%，前一季度录得6%的增速，而分析师预计预期增速约6.8%。此外，包括去年底收购的企业软件公司VMware所贡献收入在内，博通预计第四财季营收约为140亿美元，分析师预期141亿美元。

法拉第未来盘前涨超12%，重新满足纳斯达克继续上市的所有标准

$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$ 盘前大涨超%，公司宣布，已收到纳斯达克的书面通知，确认公司重新满足了《纳斯达克上市规则》5550(a)(2) 中的股价要求和 5250(c)(1) 中的定期申报要求，公司现已符合纳斯达克继续上市的所有标准。公司公告称重新符合纳斯达克持续上市标准，此外公司宣布获得3000万美元融资承诺。

消息称高通正探索收购英特尔芯片设计部门的部分业务

据外媒援引消息人士称， $高通 (QCOM.US)$ 已在探索收购 $英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 部分芯片设计业务的可能性，以扩大公司的产品组合。消息称，高通已经研究过收购英特尔的几个业务部门，客户端个人电脑(PC)设计业务是高通高层非常感兴趣的业务，但同时亦在研究英特尔的各个设计部门。

Uipath盘前涨超8%，Q2和全年业绩指引好于预期，追加5亿美元回购

企业自动化软件公司 $UiPath (PATH.US)$ 盘前涨超8%。该公司二季度总体营收3.163亿美元，分析师预期3.039亿美元；二季度年化持续经营收入15.5亿美元，符合分析师预期。预计全年营收14.2亿-14.3亿美元，分析师预期14.1亿美元。公司追加5亿美元股票回购。

巴菲特真要清仓美银？本周又连抛三日，累计套现7.6亿美元！

自7月中旬以来，“股神”巴菲特就一直在大举出售 $美国银行 (BAC.US)$ 的股票，似有清仓之势。在接连的抛售中，巴菲特已累计套现约69.7亿美元，使其执掌的伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金储备更为雄厚了。根据最新提交给SEC的一份新文件，伯克希尔哈撒韦于2024年9月3日、4日、5日连续三个交易日减持美国银行股票，合计1874.6万股，套现约7.6亿美元。

特斯拉期权成交量续升，一call单壕赚8倍

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ 升4.9%，领衔“七姐妹”，期权成交量较上一交易日增长62.46%，看涨比例升至61.3%；引伸波幅为56.8%，已连续三个交易日上升。期权链上，成交量最高的，是今日到期行权价为230美元的call单；其中，今日到期行权价为250美元的call单昨夜壕赚8倍。

全球宏观

花旗交易员：美联储降息将毫不犹豫，年内三次会议每次料降50个基点

花旗交易员押注，美联储今年将有三次50个基点的降息行动，此番预期超过了市场和该行经济学家的观点。如果美联储看到劳动力市场疲软，将会激进地放松政策。相比之下，目前市场对年内降息幅度的预期约为100个基点，而花旗经济学家8月2日以来预计，9月和11月将降息50个基点，12月将降息25个基点。最近几天，由于市场担心美国经济停滞，对于9月18日美联储将以重大步伐启动降息的预期升温。

无惧“黑色星期一”重演？日本央行前官员：今年恐还有两次加息！

日本央行前官员、日本主要通胀专家之一的Tsutomu Watanabe表示，日本加息的速度可能会快于所有人的预期。今年可能还会有两次加息；他建议，日本央行应该更积极地传达自己对利率路径的看法。他表示，“加息的速度可能会快于所有人的预期。今年可能还会有两次加息。”他进一步解释称，尽管物价趋势并未走强，但日本央行认为通胀正“步入正轨”的关键论断，意味着央行基本上可以随时采取行动。

加密行业集体兴奋！哈里斯居然接受加密货币捐款了？

据加密资产交易所Coinbase首席财务官Alesia Haas称，哈里斯正在使用该公司的Commerce平台接受加密货币捐款。这虽然不代表哈里斯直接接受加密货币捐款，但对于加密行业来说，仍旧是一个值得高兴的重大进步。

小摩：欧佩克+未来一年将按兵不动，布油明年底或跌至60美元

摩根大通表示，预计欧佩克+将至少再维持目前的产量水平一年，从而将2025年布伦特原油的平均价格保持在75美元。欧佩克+周四同意推迟10月和11月的石油增产计划，并将在必要时进一步暂停或逆转增产计划。摩根大通表示，逐步取消减产的机会现在已经关闭，预计到2025年底，布伦特原油价格将跌至每桶60美元的低位。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:45 FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话

22:00 美国8月全球供应链压力指数

23:00 美联储理事沃勒就经济前景发表讲话

编辑/new

Hot news

On Friday pre-market trading, the three major futures indexes rose in early short-term trading, and the US non-farm payroll data for August was released.

In August, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the United States was 0.142 million, expected to be 0.16 million, and the previous value was revised from 0.114 million to 0.089 million. The unemployment rate in the United States in August was recorded at 4.2%, in line with market expectations, hitting a new low since June of this year, and the first decline in four consecutive months of rising.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics: The non-farm added employment in June was revised from 0.179 million people to 0.118 million people; The non-farm added employment in July was revised from 0.114 million people to 0.089 million people. After the revision, the total added employment in June and July was 0.086 million people lower than the revised number.

After the release of non-farm payroll data, traders have increased their expectations for the magnitude of the Fed rate cut this year. Traders expect a 50% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed this month.

Broadcom fell more than 6% before the market, with slower growth in Q3 semiconductor business revenue and Q4 revenue guidance below expectations.

$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ It fell 8.4% before the market to $139.98. In terms of news, Broadcom announced its performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2024, with revenue of $13.072 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and analysts expected $12.97 billion; among them, the revenue of the semiconductor solutions business unit, including AI custom chips, was $7.274 billion, unexpectedly slowing down to 5% growth, recording a 6% growth in the previous quarter, while analysts expected an expected growth rate of about 6.8%. In addition, including the revenue contributed by the enterprise software company VMware acquired at the end of last year, Broadcom expects fourth-quarter revenue to be approximately $14 billion, while analysts expect $14.1 billion.

Faraday Future rose more than 12% before the market, meeting all the criteria for continued listing on NASDAQ.

$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$ Before the market, the company's stock price surged by %, and the company announced that it had received a written notice from NASDAQ confirming that the company has once again met the stock price requirements in NASDAQ Listing Rule 5550(a)(2) and the periodic filing requirements in 5250(c)(1), and the company now meets all the criteria for continued listing on NASDAQ. The company announced that it meets the continued listing standards of NASDAQ, and furthermore, the company announced that it has received a commitment of 30 million US dollars in financing.

It is reported that Qualcomm is exploring the acquisition of part of Intel's chip design department.

According to sources quoted by foreign media, $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ is exploring the acquisition $Intel (INTC.US)$ There is a possibility of expanding the company's product portfolio through the acquisition of certain chip design businesses. According to reports, Qualcomm has already studied several business units of Intel for acquisition, with a particular interest in the client personal computer (PC) design business, while also looking into various design departments of Intel.

Uipath is up more than 8% pre-market. Q2 and full-year performance guidance is better than expected, with an additional $0.5 billion share buyback.

Enterprise automation software company. $UiPath (PATH.US)$ Up more than 8% pre-market. The company's overall revenue for the second quarter was $0.3163 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.3039 billion; second-quarter annualized ongoing operating income was $1.55 billion, in line with analysts' expectations. The projected full-year revenue is $1.42 billion to $1.43 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.41 billion. The company will also initiate a $0.5 billion share buyback.

Is Buffett really going to sell all of his shares in Bank of America? This week, he has sold for three consecutive days, with a total cash out of 0.76 billion US dollars!

Since mid-July, 'stock god' Warren Buffett has been selling in large quantities. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ The stock seems to be in the process of liquidation. Buffett has sold a total of about $6.97 billion in consecutive sell-offs, making Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves even stronger. According to a new filing submitted to the SEC, Berkshire Hathaway reduced its holdings of Bank of America stocks for three consecutive trading days on September 3, 4, and 5, 2024, totaling 18.746 million shares and cashing out about $0.76 billion.

The trading volume of Tesla options continues to rise, with one call option generating 8 times the profit.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The stock rose by 4.9%, leading the 'Seven Sisters', with a 62.46% increase in options trading volume compared to the previous trading day, and the call ratio rising to 61.3%. The implied volatility is 56.8% and has been rising for three consecutive trading days. On the options chain, the highest trading volume is for call options with a strike price of $230 expiring today; among them, call options with a strike price of $250 expiring today generated a profit of 8 times overnight.

Global macro

Citigroup trader: The Federal Reserve will not hesitate to cut interest rates and is expected to cut 50 basis points at each of the three meetings this year.

Citi traders bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points three times this year, exceeding the market and the bank's economists' expectations. If the Fed sees a weak labor market, it will aggressively ease policy. In contrast, the current market expects a rate cut of about 100 basis points for the year, while Citi economists have predicted since August 2 that there will be a 50 basis points rate cut in September and November, and a 25 basis points cut in December. In recent days, due to market concerns about a stagnating U.S. economy, expectations for a significant rate cut by the Fed on September 18 have increased.

Unafraid of a repeat of 'Black Monday'? Former officials of the Bank of Japan: The country may raise interest rates twice this year!

Tsutomu Watanabe, a former Bank of Japan official and one of Japan's leading inflation experts, said that the speed of rate hikes in Japan may be faster than expected by everyone. There may be two rate hikes this year. He suggested that the Bank of Japan should more actively communicate its view on the interest rate path. He said, "The speed of rate hikes may be faster than expected by everyone. There may be two rate hikes this year." He further explained that despite the lack of strong price trends, the Bank of Japan's key judgment that inflation is "on track" means that the central bank can basically take action at any time.

The crypto industry is collectively excited! Did Harris actually accept donations in cryptos?

According to Alesia Haas, the Chief Financial Officer of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, Harris is using the company's Commerce platform to accept cryptocurrency donations. Although this does not mean that Harris is directly accepting cryptocurrency donations, it is still a significant positive development for the crypto industry.

J.P. Morgan: OPEC+ to remain idle over the next year, Brent crude may fall to $60 by the end of next year

JPMorgan said it expects OPEC+ to maintain at least the current production levels for the next year, thereby keeping the average price of Brent crude at $75 in 2025. OPEC+ agreed on Thursday to postpone oil production increases in October and November, and will further suspend or reverse production increases when necessary. JPMorgan stated that the opportunity to gradually end the production cuts is now closed, and the price of Brent crude is expected to fall to a low of $60 per barrel by the end of 2025.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:45 FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech.

22:00 Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for August in the United States.

23:00 Fed Governor Waller delivers a speech on economic outlook.

Editor/new

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