First of all, rate the possibility of the following five questions.

Probability increases from 1 to 5, 1: very unlikely, 3: uncertain, 5: very likely

1. Spend a day's income to play slot machines in the casino

two。 Sign a new car loan for a friend

3. Invest 20% of your annual income in stocks

4. Lend a friend a sum equivalent to a month's income

5. Take a job based on commission only

Write down the total score of the 5 questions. There is a solution at the end of the article.

Why did I lose money on the debt I bought?

Recently, the friends who bought the debt base wondered: it is said that the debt base is as sound as Yu'e Bao. How did I lose money when I bought it?

Steady. Don't panic. Debt base is a portfolio investment in bonds to seek a more stable return, which is still bonds in essence. The decline and rise of bonds in the market is much more frightening than the debt base:

Moreover, "risk is proportional to return" is an immutable motto. What bond funds can do is to spread risks and improve returns more effectively. It is normal for prices to rise and fall.

Why did bond prices fall? This article will answer your questions about risk. Follow Niu Niu Ollie. Here!

Where does the bond risk come from?

1. Interest rate risk

When the market interest rate changes, our gains also suffer losses. When interest rates rise, the debt in hand is worthless.

Xiaobai doubt 1: isn't the interest rate already fixed? Why is it still floating?

Yes, the fundamentals of bonds: face value, coupon rate and maturity date. Generally speaking, once the bond is issued, the coupon rate will remain unchanged and the corresponding future yield will be fixed. In the market, however, bond interest rates vary from time to time, as shown in the following figure:

That is, the relationship between [nominal interest rate] and [market interest rate] is a compulsory course in high school politics, and the changes in interest rates will be reflected in the market price.

Xiaobai doubt 2: when interest rates rise, shouldn't bonds be worth more?

What you hold is the debt when the interest rate is low, and the rise and bustle of interest rates is theirs, and it has nothing to do with you.

For example, you hold a bond issued by Lao Jin with a face value of 100 yuan, and you are now ready to sell it.

Everyone left because at this time the intrinsic value of Lao Jin's bonds was no longer fragrant.

So

Xiaobai doubt 3: if the market interest rate goes down and the price goes up, isn't it cool to make a profit by selling it at this time?

Yes, as long as you don't buy other bonds in the near future, because it's risky to reinvest at this time.

two。 Reinvestment risk

In the environment of low market interest rate, the return of reinvestment is lower than that of the original product, so the loss is suffered.

Now please make a multiple choice question: an is 180 days, the annualized rate of return is 7%, B is 90 days, the annualized rate of return is the same, which one would you choose?

There is no doubt that most people will choose B. Because B withdraws principal and interest after maturity, and then invests in a 90-day product C (about 7%), it gets the same income at the same time, and the allocation of funds is more flexible.

But if you withdraw the principal and interest, there are no more than 7% of the products on the market, the most is only 6%, you might as well choose A. And the bond market does not decline is beyond our ordinary people's control, the capital market has a lot of macro factors, central bank regulation, international interest rate environment factors, as well as the manipulation of some bigwigs, such as Iron Man, the United States, Buffett.

3. Macro risk: imagine we live in the Marvel Universe

In the unpredictable trading market, there are some macro risks that affect all investment products.

The above three areLiquidity risk, inflation risk, currency riskIt is equivalent to the battle of the Avengers that the enemy can destroy a battle in New York City in one fight. For them, there are corresponding super-power fund products. For example, for exchange rate risk, RMB can be used to hedge the share, RMB to buy, RMB to sell, the return is pure and simple. Don't be surprised, because fund managers make a living by controlling risk.

Xiaobai doubt 4: as an ordinary person without superpower and financial knowledge, do you have no choice but to sit back and wait for death?

-- No. Just as Iron Man fans can judge whether there are new enemies in the world according to the dynamics of his actions, in reality, some black swan events and fat tail events also have omens. The "fat tail incident" is similar to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In the field of investment, the probability of their occurrence is very small, but once it happens, it will bring catastrophic losses and cause a sudden shift in market sentiment. Before these turns occur, the market will react accordingly.

In terms of macro risks, such as at the beginning, a slight decline in bond prices may be just a "correction".An article by the Federal ReserveWe said that institutions similar to the central bank may have adopted a macro-control strategy to slightly lower the bond market price because the bond market price was too high and everyone went to buy bonds while ignoring stocks and banks.

Therefore, although ordinary people cannot control the chrysanthemum, they can predict the trend by tracking hot spots and constantly understanding the trend.

4. The risk of an unreliable company

There are two major risks, which may not be encountered in a lifetime, and it is a minefield. The first is"risks posed by redeemable bonds"，见LinkAnother major risk is"credit risk". In response, different institutions and fund companies give bond companies Produce 101 ratings, ranging from AAA to D. the lower the rating, the greater the risk of default.

Xiaobai doubt 5: that is not any bond to buy AAA grade on it, no risk?

Of course not. There should be different operations according to different market conditions and personal preferences. We will explain the credit rating in detail in the next article, so that you can learn to identify "minefields".

All in all, the people who are really not afraid of risks are those who have already made a pre-investment assessment and have psychological expectations of tail events at any time. Be vigilant, be prepared for thinking, and be prepared.

For more debt-based knowledge, please continue to follow the section on "playing with the Bond Market".

Conclusion

The initial test comes from Weber's risk attitude scale, and the test results are for reference only.

Conservative investors (5 points): principal first, pursuit of stability, risk aversion

Moderate conservative type (10 points): stability first, the pursuit of safety and value-added, limited bearing capacity

Mediocre investors (15 points): desire for higher returns and long-term, steady growth risk lower than the overall risk of the market

Moderate enterprising investors (20 points): pursue long-term returns, dare to take risks but prepare backup plans

Enterprising investors (25 points): highly pursue the appreciation of capital, do not hesitate to risk failure