Hot news

• Before the Monday trading session, the three major stock index futures fluctuated slightly.

As of the time of publication, the Dow futures rose by 0.15%, the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq futures fell by 0.06%.

Popular tech stocks showed mixed gains and losses before the market. Nvidia and Google saw slight increases.

Most popular China concept stocks declined before the market, with Pinduoduo falling nearly 17%, and Alibaba and JD.com dropping by about 3%.

• Nvidia's performance results are about to be announced! The datacenter business is expected to continue to soar.

After the market on August 28th, U.S. Eastern Time, the AI chip giant$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The financial results for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025 will be announced soon. The market generally expects that Nvidia will achieve a revenue of $28.639 billion in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 112.03%; earnings per share of $0.60, a year-on-year increase of 141.49%. This means that the company will achieve record-breaking revenue and profit for the fifth consecutive quarter. According to Bloomberg's unanimous expectations, Nvidia's key business, the datacenter, is expected to achieve a revenue of $25.023 billion, a year-on-year increase of 142.40%. The share of this business in the company's revenue is expected to continue to expand to 87%.

• Pinduoduo's pre-market trading fell nearly 17%, and Q2 revenue fell short of expectations.

$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ The performance shows that the revenue in the second quarter was CNY 97.0595 billion, although it increased by 86% year-on-year, it fell short of the market's expectations of CNY 99.985 billion; the adjusted net income was CNY 34.4321 billion, a year-on-year increase of 125%, higher than the market's expectations of CNY 30.1 billion.

• Xiaopeng Holdings increased its shareholding, and Xiaopeng Motors rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading.

From August 21st to 23rd, He Xiaopeng made purchases on the open market. $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ A total of 1 million shares of Class A common stock were purchased, with an average price of HKD 27.13 per share, and a total of 1.4199 million American depositary shares were purchased through Galaxy Dynasty, a wholly-owned subsidiary, with an average price of USD 7.02 per share. After the acquisition, He Xiaopeng collectively owns approximately 18.8% of the company's issued share capital. He Xiaopeng also expressed plans to further increase his stake in the company.

• The cryptocurrency industry has become the 'biggest business donor' in the US election, with Coinbase throwing $50 million.

According to a report by consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen, crypto companies - mainly $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ According to a report from the consumer rights organization Public Citizen, crypto companies - primarily [company name] and Ripple - have invested over $0.119 billion in the 2024 US election so far. The report notes that crypto companies have dominated industry political spending in 2024, accounting for 48% of total corporate contributions to date ($0.248 billion).

• Uber was fined nearly 0.3 billion euros for transferring driver data from Europe to the United States.

The Dutch data protection regulator DPA said on Monday that the ride-hailing platform from the United States $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ has been fined up to 0.29 billion euros for violating EU regulations by sending personal data of European taxi drivers to the United States. Subsequent reports suggest that Uber has opposed the claims of EU regulators, while the DPA has stated that Uber has ceased this violation.

• IBM China has officially announced the closure of some of its research and development operations.

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ Jack Hergenrother, Vice President of Global Enterprise Systems Development, announced today that IBM Infrastructure has decided to transfer the research and development work of the China Systems Laboratory to other IBM Infrastructure bases overseas, and is currently withdrawing all research and development work from China. It is understood that IBM China has multiple subsidiaries, and this adjustment is related to IBMV's IBM China Systems Center, which is mainly responsible for research and testing. The employees are distributed in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dalian, with a total of more than a thousand people.

• IDC Report: Baidu's Asia Vets Cloud has been the number one in China's AI public cloud market for five consecutive years.

IT market research and consulting firm IDC released the 'China Artificial Intelligence Public Cloud Computing Service Market Share (2023)' report. The report shows that the overall size of the Chinese AI public cloud service market reached 12.61 billion yuan in 2023. $Baidu (BIDU.US)$ Intelligent cloud market share ranked first (26.4%). Since IDC released the report on the Chinese AI public cloud market, Baidu Smart Cloud has ranked first in the Chinese market for 5 consecutive years.

• GDS Holdings rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading, and has had its target price raised by multiple institutions.

Citi believes that the business outlook is positive, benefiting from the strong domestic demand recovery, as well as the increased capital investment in AI and the cloud by leading technology companies. There is an anticipation that the company will realize its mainland assets through REIT. The target price has been raised significantly from $13.6 to $25.1, with a reiteration of a 'buy' rating. In addition, CICC has raised its US stock target price by 24% to $18, maintaining an 'outperform' rating. Nomura has reiterated a 'buy' rating for GDS Holdings, raising the target price from $20 to $21. $GDS Holdings (GDS.US)$ Interest rate cut expectations have ignited the market! MSTR call options for cash stocks have surged.

• 降息预期引爆市场！持币股MSTR看涨期权飙升

Cryptocurrency concept stocks surged collectively last Friday! BTC "hodlers"$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$, BTC miners$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$They all rose by more than 10%, and the trading volume of options increased several times; the call-to-put ratio of MicroStrategy options rose to 77%, and the call options with a strike price of $150 that expired this Friday were eagerly sought after by investors, with a total trading volume of 0.044 million contracts and an open interest of 3.2 thousand contracts;

The call-to-put ratio of Marathon Digital options rose to 78%, and the highest trading volume came from the call options with a strike price of $19 that expired this Friday, with a trading volume of nearly 0.02 million contracts and an open interest of nearly 5 thousand contracts.

Last Friday, influenced by the upcoming US PCE inflation data and hints of Fed rate cuts,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Reached a peak of around $65,000.

Global macro

• Powell's "indication" of interest rate cuts, the market will shift to "dollar carry trades"?

With Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinting at an interest rate cut next month, bond traders have shifted their focus to the size of the first rate cut and the future easing path. Powell said last Friday that the "time has come" for the Fed to lower benchmark interest rates from their 20-year high, the clearest signal to date, and traders have increased their bets on a 50 basis point cut in September. The weakening dollar has become the preferred currency for a new wave of carry trades involving high-risk bets using borrowed money.

• With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut imminent, gold bullion is collectively celebrating.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the annual meeting suggests that the Fed's interest rate cut cycle is coming, and through various wordings, the Fed hints that its future main work is not only to avoid an economic recession but also to ensure a soft landing. Under the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, gold is undoubtedly one of the most beneficial asset classes, and the current gold price has broken through $2,500, reaching a historic high. In the view of some analysts, breaking the $3,000 mark is only a matter of time.

• Rate cut expectations ignite enthusiasm! The net inflow of funds in bitcoin spot ETF hits a one-month high.

Thanks to the Fed's signal that the time is right for an interest rate cut, market risk appetite has rebounded, and there is a resurgence in demand for Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin has reached $65,000 for the first time in about three weeks. Powell's clear indication of an interest rate cut has sparked net inflows worth $0.252 billion, which has flowed into more than a dozen U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, attracting continuous inflows for seven days, reaching the highest level in over a month.

• HSBC: The market's concerns about a recession have been excessive, and the US dollar is expected to rebound in September.

Currently, the market's pricing for interest rate cuts has reached a 100-basis-point cut for the year. However, HSBC believes that the risk of a US economic recession may have been exaggerated and does not support a larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The bank's analysts believe that the adjustment of the US dollar has already ended, and with the diminishing expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it is expected that the US dollar will gradually regain lost ground.

• Rebound fading? Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds are selling stocks at the fastest pace in over two years.

In August, a report released by Goldman Sachs showed that 'smart money' is selling global stocks at the fastest pace since March 2022, with the most net selling in the North American region. These 'smart money' seem to have doubts about the sustainability of the stock market rebound and are still concerned about potential risks. The report also showed that since August, the return on long-short strategies has rebounded by 0.6%, recovering from the previous decline of 3.8% at the beginning of the month, and has accumulated an 8.8% increase this year.$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$The magnitude of the rebound has also exceeded 10%.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30: US July Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Initial (%).

22:30: US August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index.

02:00 the next day: 2024 FOMC Voting Member and San Francisco Fed President Daly's Speech.

Editor/Emily