新能源汽车和家电领域高景气，新产能投放有条不紊，Q1 公司产能利用率超过90%。2）价：据百川盈孚，Q1 毛坯烧结钕铁硼N52 均价为250.1 元/公斤，环比-5.4%。3）利：24Q1 毛利率为10.04%，同比-5.2pct，主因系一季度原材料价格继续下滑，以金属镨钕为例24Q1 均价47.37 万元/吨，同比下降42.03%，由于定价存在滞后性，成本与售价无法实行有效传导，盈利能力下降。同时，由于公司以产定销以及采用加权平均方法存货发出计价，有A 和B 两位客户延期执行合同但公司已经采购相应原材料，成本较高。以上因素影响毛利率4pct，订单仅是滞后预计后续利润将会实现。Key points of investment:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report successively. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 6.69 billion yuan, -6.7% year-on-year, net profit to mother of 550 million yuan, -19.8% year-on-year, and net profit without return to mother of 490 million yuan, or -27.7% year-on-year. The 24Q1 company achieved operating income of 1,536 billion yuan, -6.2% month-on-month, net profit of 102 million yuan, +47.8% month-on-month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.25 million yuan, or -54.5% month-on-month.
2024Q1: Falling rare earth prices and order execution adversely affect the company's profitability. 1) Quantity:
The field of new energy vehicles and home appliances is booming, and new production capacity is being put into place in an orderly manner. Q1's capacity utilization rate exceeds 90%. 2) Price: According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price of Q1 rough sintered NdFeB N52 was 250.1 yuan/kg, -5.4% month-on-month. 3) Profit: The gross margin for 24Q1 was 10.04%, -5.2 pct. The main reason was that raw material prices continued to decline in the first quarter. Taking praseodymium metal as an example, the average price of 24Q1 was 473,700 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 42.03%. Due to lag in pricing, costs and sales prices could not be effectively transmitted, and profitability declined. At the same time, since the company orders production and sales and uses a weighted averaging method to issue pricing, two customers A and B have postponed execution of the contract, but the company has already purchased the corresponding raw materials, and the cost is high. The above factors affect the gross margin of 4pct. The order is only delayed and subsequent profits are expected to be realized.
2023: Volume increases offset lower rare earth prices. 1) Volume: In 2023, the company's total output of high-performance magnetic materials was 15,200 tons, +18.5% year-on-year. Of these, 13,200 tons of magnetic materials were produced using grain boundary penetration technology, +32.7% year-on-year, accounting for 87.3% of the company's total product output during the same period, and +9.34 pcts year-on-year. The total annual sales volume was 151,000 tons, an increase of 25.6% over the same period last year. 2) Price: The average price of sintered NdFeB N52 throughout the year was 258.2 yuan/kg, -19.4% year-on-year. 3) Profit: The gross margin of the NdFeB magnet business for the whole year was 15.32%, +0.22pct year-on-year.
The new production capacity is scheduled to reach production by the end of 24, and the humanoid robot is arranged in an orderly manner. The company has a production capacity of 23,000 tons in 23 years, and production capacity of 12,000 tons in Baotou II and 30,000 tons in Ningbo is currently being built according to the plan. Currently, there are sufficient orders in progress. The plan is to reach 38,000 tons of production by the end of '24, and a production capacity of 40,000 tons will be built in '25. Construction of the Mexican project began this year, and it was completed and put into operation at the end of '25, actively cooperating with world-renowned customers in the research and development of magnetic components for humanoid robots.
Rare earth prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and seize the race track of increasing demand for new energy vehicles and air conditioners. The growth rate of the first batch of rare earth indicators slowed in 2024, the relationship between supply and demand improved, and rare earth prices stopped falling and rebounding in late March. The boom in air conditioning and trams in 2024 is the area where demand in the magnetic materials industry is growing the fastest. It is also the company's main business coverage. Subsequent trade-in policies will continue to drive growth in this field, and the company will benefit from this.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We revised our rare earth price and sales assumptions. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 6.79/8.63/1,030 million yuan (the value was 1,102/1,308 billion yuan 24-25 years ago).
2024 corresponds to 29.4 times PE. Considering that the company has sufficient orders in hand and production capacity is released rapidly, it maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The company's projects under construction fall short of expectations; the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; downstream demand falls short of expectations; industry competition increases the risk; and customer development falls short of expectations.