This week's big schedule at a glance

• Economic data is detonating the market, and US CPI data is about to be released.

The US stock market is about to face a major test. The US CPI data for April will be released next Wednesday. Since US inflation remained high in the first three months of this year, many Federal Reserve officials are cautious about the next monetary policy. Some hawkish officials said that there will be no interest rate cuts this year, and the possibility of further rate hikes cannot even be ruled out. If the US CPI again exceeds expectations in April and rises from the previous value, it is expected to seriously hurt the market's bets on how many times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

Before CPI releases data, the US producer price (PPI) data for March released on Tuesday can predict the inflation trend in advance. Also released at the same time as the US CPI data on Wednesday was retail sales data for April known as “horror data.” This will provide clues as to whether the strength of the US economy remains strong. The number of jobless claims at the beginning of each week will also be announced on Thursday.

• The comments of Federal Reserve officials affected the market, and Powell made his first appearance after a period of silence.

Since the Federal Reserve took a dovish stance at a recent policy meeting and Powell ruled out the possibility of interest rate hikes, a series of data shows that the US labor market is cooling down, which provides a reason for the market's expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. However, against the backdrop of stubborn inflation, many policymakers this week called for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time.

The comments of Federal Reserve officials will continue to influence the market. A number of officials will deliver speeches next week. Those who spoke after the April CPI data were released are particularly worthy of attention. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech next Tuesday. This will also be his first public appearance since the end of the last round of silence.

Analysts pointed out that signs of weakness in the US labor market may indicate a slowdown in economic growth, which poses a challenge to the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Furthermore, the decline in consumer confidence may also have an impact on the Federal Reserve's decisions.

• Japan will announce the initial GDP value for the first quarter, and the yen exchange rate trend will become the focus of the market.

Against the backdrop of people's weak yen and increasing attention to the Bank of Japan's policy stance, Japan will announce the initial GDP value for the first quarter. Investors will be watching this data to determine whether Japan's economy continues to grow or fall back into contraction. For the yen to rebound appreciably, GDP data may need to show an acceleration in economic growth, thereby encouraging market participants to increase their bets on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in the summer.

And if GDP data shows that the economy is shrinking, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar may continue to fall and approach the 160 area that triggered the first round of intervention last week. Under these circumstances, even if the Japanese authorities intervene again, the yen's depreciation trend is still unlikely to reverse, as another quarter of contraction may trigger speculation that the Bank of Japan's next rate hike will be further delayed.

• China Securities Earnings Season Begins! Internet giants such as Tencent, Ali, JD, and Baidu are on the list one after another.

Since April, as market confidence in the Chinese stock market has continued to increase, Hong Kong stocks and Chinese securities have continued to rise. The current financial reports of leading science and technology stocks may have become a key influencing factor in subsequent stock market trends, attracting investors' attention.

“Stock King” Tencent is scheduled to announce results for the first quarter of 2024 on May 14. It is worth noting that Tencent's recent performance has been extremely impressive. Since March, the stock price has risen rapidly, with a cumulative increase of more than 33%. Looking at the extended cycle, Tencent changed its previous decline this year and recorded an impressive annual increase of about 26%.

Ali announced the fourth quarter results of the 2024 fiscal year on May 14. Agencies generally expect that in the latest quarter, Ali will achieve revenue of RMB 219.832 billion, an increase of 5.58% year on year; earnings per share of 5.41 yuan, a decrease of 39.88% year on year.

In addition, JD, Baidu, iQiyi, etc. will also announce their results next week, which is worth looking forward to.

• Finally, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on Wednesday due to the Buddha's birthday, so investors are invited to pay attention.

This week's key performance calendar

Related reading: Learn about the weekly key performance calendar in one picture (5.13-5.17)

Monday May 13th

Keywords: US one-year inflation forecast, Fed official speech, Tencent Music/Petrobras earnings report

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the New York Federal Reserve's 1-year inflation forecast data will be released.

In terms of financial events, the 2024 FOMC voting committee, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meister, and Federal Reserve Governor Jefferson delivered speeches on central bank communication.

In terms of financial reports,$Tencent Music (TME.US)$,$Dingdong (DDL.US)$,$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR.US)$Financial reports will be published.

Tuesday, May 14

Keywords: Tencent/Ali/Sea earnings report, US PPI monthly rate, Powell's speech

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the monthly rate of the US PPI will be announced.

In terms of financial events, at 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB Governing Council Member Nott attended a meeting and delivered a speech together.

In terms of major financial reports,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$,$Sea (SE.US)$A financial report will be issued.

Wednesday May 15

Keywords: US April CPI, “horror data”, Hong Kong stock market closure

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, a series of major US inflation data will be released, and the US April CPI, core CPI, and monthly retail sales rate known as “horror data” will be revealed today.

In terms of financial events, the IEA released its monthly crude oil market report. Additionally, 125 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term loan facilities (MLF) and 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases expired today, with a cumulative maturity of 127 billion yuan.

In terms of major financial reports, Hong Kong stocks$CHINAGOLDINTL (02099.HK)$A financial report will be issued.

In terms of market closure, Hong Kong stock markets were closed for one day due to Buddha's birthday, and Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect suspended trading.

Thursday May 16th

Keywords: number of initial jobless claims in the US, Japan's GDP, FOMC voting committee speech

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the preliminary value of Japan's real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the number of initial jobless claims in the US, the monthly rate of the import price index, the monthly rate of industrial output, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index will be announced.

In terms of economic events, the 2026 FOMC voting committee and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari attended a fireside conversation. Additionally, 2026 FOMC Voting Committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck delivered a speech.

In terms of major financial reports,$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$,$JD-SW (09618.HK)$,$iQIYI (IQ.US)$,$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$Results will be announced.

In terms of IPOs, Hong Kong stocks$MARKETINGFORCE (02556.HK)$Launched today.

Friday May 17

Keywords: annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China, press conference of the State Information Office, FOMC voting committee speech

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China, the annual value added rate of industries above scale, the annual rate of CPI in the Eurozone, and the monthly rate of the leading indicators of the American Chamber of Commerce will be released.

In terms of financial events, the State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy, and the National Bureau of Statistics published monthly reports on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities.

Additionally, in 2024, FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on the economic outlook.

In terms of financial reports,$H World Group (HTHT.US)$,$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$Results will be announced.

In terms of new shares,$HOLLWIN URBAN (02529.HK)$It will be available today.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

edit/emily