Positive signs keep on coming! China's assets explode across the board

Tencent recorded the biggest one-day increase in 10 months! The public offering group went south, and Zhang Kun and his team “overmatched” Hong Kong stocks

券商中國 · Apr 23 08:30

来源：券商中国
作者：许诺

在公募基金巨头集体加仓背景下，$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$创下最近10个月来最大单日涨幅。

最新一季报显示，港股已成为基金经理主要加仓对象，张坤管理管理的“A股基金”中的股票市值约半数为港股股票市值，而多位明星基金经理管理的“沪港深基金”更是出现“含港量”超50%甚至60%的现象，相关人士解释其加仓港股主要指向互联网赛道的逻辑时认为，人工智能作为技术创新的前沿，可以有效提高互联网公司的效率、增强用户体验，正在重塑广告、游戏、电子商务等多个行业的生态格局，互联网公司可能是公募南下港股的最大弹性来源。

腾讯飙升超5%，张坤强力增持港股

4月22日，基金重仓股腾讯控股创10个月以来最大单日涨幅，大涨5.46%，$恒生指数 (800000.HK)$大涨1.77%，包括基金重仓股$美团-W (03690.HK)$、$泡泡玛特 (09992.HK)$、$网易-S (09999.HK)$等均有不错表现。此外，有关腾讯牵头建成医疗影像AI国家新一代人工智能开放创新平台的消息，更刺激港股AI人工智能板块、医疗板块的强劲表现，AI人工智能板块中，$第四范式 (06682.HK)$收盘大涨10%，$阅文集团 (00772.HK)$涨5%，$心动公司 (02400.HK)$涨4%，$美图公司 (01357.HK)$涨2%；医疗赛道中，$云顶新耀-B (01952.HK)$涨超8%、$康诺亚-B (02162.HK)$涨超6%、$国药控股 (01099.HK)$涨超5%，$恒生医疗保健指数 (800804.HK)$收盘大涨2.72%。

值得关注的是，港股市场的行情正趋向于头部公司与脚部公司的两极分化，在前段时间港股市场的调整行情中，各赛道的头部公司并未显著下跌，而22日指数大幅反弹之际，前期超跌严重的小市值公司依然难获资金认可，涨幅排名靠前的活跃性品种几乎都是清一色的大市值公司。

公募基金的覆盖方向也大致朝向港股市场具有竞争力的头部企业。

易方达蓝筹精选基金披露的第一季度报告显示，明星基金经理张坤在今年一季度期间继续增仓港股市场，使其通过港股通持有的股票仓位达到约43.99%，持有的港股市值规模折合人民币约181亿元，考虑到易方达蓝筹精选基金全部股票持仓市值为388亿元，这意味着明星基金经理张坤所管的这只“A股基金”，港股投资占比接近50%。

睿远基金也同样在加仓港股市场，睿远成长价值基金的第一季度报告显示，该基金通过港股通交易机制投资的港股公允价值为人民币37.83亿元，占期末基金资产净值比例为20.11%。睿远成长价值由傅鹏博和朱璘共同管理，与张坤操作类似的是，睿远旗下的这只明星基金在今年一季度加仓了腾讯控股，持有408万股，占比为6.6%，为该基金第四大重仓股。

沪港深基金“含港量”猛增

显而易见的是，在港股市场逐渐复苏的背景下，越来越多的基金经理基于性价比，开始显著地增强股票池的“含港量”。

最新一季报显示，明星基金经理李耀柱管理的广发沪港深新起点基金持有的港股市值为13.3亿元，而持有的全部股票市值为23.3亿元，这意味着这只沪港深主题基金接近60%的仓位为港股，沪港深主题基金由偏A股向偏港股的重大变化凸显出港股市场的性价比和吸引力。

将腾讯作为第一大重仓股的广发沪港深新起点基金经理李耀柱认为，沿着经济中长期复苏的主线，叠加欧洲利率在2024年下半年可能进入下降周期，互联网科技企业也是重点关注的方向之一。他在广发沪港深新起点的一季报里表示：“中国经济回升对优秀的互联网科技企业也是正面的刺激，格局稳定的社交网络、生活服务等细分行业的盈利预期会随着经济预期向上而稳步提升。”

李耀柱进一步介绍，国内互联网行业的发展前景充满活力，特别是在人工智能、跨境电子商务等几个领域，展现出尤为突出的增长潜力。其中，人工智能作为技术创新的前沿，可以有效提高效率、增强用户体验，正在重塑广告、游戏、电子商务等多个行业的生态格局。而随着全球化贸易的恢复和电子商务平台的创新，跨境电商也成为增长迅速的领域，中国企业通过优化供应链、物流服务和利用数字化工具不断拓宽国际市场，有望继续在全球电商领域占据重要地位。

在沪港深基金中提升“含港量”为广发沪港深新起点带来显著的业绩弹性，截至目前，李耀柱管理的该产品今年以来收益率已超过17%，在同类基金中排名前10%。

此外，前海开源基金副总经理、明星基金曲扬管理的前海开源沪港深优势精选基金，也同样呈现出偏港股的色彩，该基金第一季度报告显示，持有的港股市值占全部股票市值比例为50.7%，其在港股的配置方向主要指向高端消费、TMT、电动车、医疗健康等方向的标的。显而易见的是，“含港量”的逐步增强可能意味着在当前背景下，港股市场可能会带来超额收益机会。

互联网赛道洼地吸引力大

关于港股市场在接下来的走势和投资机会，不少明星基金经理在一季度报告中也给予乐观期待。

南方基金首席投资官史博认为，港股市场由中国经济基本面和全球流动性共同决定，基于这一框架，尽管未来仍然面临一定的不确定性，但对港股市场不悲观：美联储紧缩周期大概率已经结束，尽管受到CPI、非农等经济数据超预期影响，首次降息时间点还不确定，但降息的大方向确定，未来海外流动性预期反复可能对资产价格造成扰动，只要方向不发生大的变化，海外流动性就不会对市场造成大的冲击。对经济增长的预期将成为影响未来市场走势的关键，3月中国制造业PMI回到荣枯线以上也引发了市场关于经济边际改善的讨论，尽管目前分歧仍然很大，但当前港股处于估值洼地，已经较大程度上反映了对未来经济增长的担忧，这与2023年初市场对复苏预期乐观有本质不同，总体来看维持港股市场震荡上行的判断。

大力增持港股的张坤也认为，股票比债券长期收益率高的一个重要原因就是股票具有持续的成长性，而优质股票的必要条件就是具有长期持续的成长性。因此应始终赋予寻找长期成长性相当的权重。虽然，在高质量发展时期，公司持续高速增长的基础概率在降低，但始终不应该放弃对中等且持续成长性的寻找，而成长性也可以通过在不同的细分结构中寻找而获得。

“我们对港股的长期乐观看法也没有改变，我们所管理的可投资港股的组合也都进行了超配。”嘉实前沿科技沪港深基金经理王贵重认为，在一季度末已经可以感受到经济和企业盈利明显的复苏。近期制造业PMI数据以及重点互联网公司的季度业绩和展望超预期是大家保持乐观的理由。互联网及其他港股科技行业经过2023年的超预期估值下杀，在宏观预期的反转之下会有更大的估值弹性，一季度更加均衡，增加了制造业龙头公司的配置，相信中国参与更深的“再全球化”会为中国企业带来新的增长空间，而这些具备全球竞争力的公司很多只有10倍的静态市盈率，明显低估，酝酿着巨大的潜在回报。

编辑/jayden

Source: Broker China
Author: Promise

In the context of public fund giants collectively increasing their positions,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$It recorded the biggest one-day increase in the last 10 months.

According to the latest quarterly report, Hong Kong stocks have become the main target for fund managers to increase their positions. About half of the “A-share funds” managed by Zhang Kun are Hong Kong stock market values, while the “Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen Fund” managed by many star fund managers has also experienced the phenomenon of “Hong Kong content” exceeding 50% or even 60%. Relevant sources explain the logic of increasing Hong Kong stocks mainly pointing to the Internet circuit. They believe that artificial intelligence, as the frontier of technological innovation, can effectively improve the efficiency of Internet companies and enhance the user experience, and is reshaping the ecological pattern of various industries such as advertising, gaming, and e-commerce. It is probably the biggest source of flexibility for public offering of Hong Kong stocks going south.

Tencent soared more than 5%, and Zhang Kun strongly increased his Hong Kong stock holdings

On April 22, Tencent Holdings, a major fund stock, recorded its biggest one-day increase in 10 months, surging 5.46%.$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$Surged 1.77%, including heavily held fund stocks$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$POP MART (09992.HK)$,$NTES-S (09999.HK)$They all performed well. Furthermore, news about Tencent taking the lead in building a next-generation artificial intelligence open innovation platform for medical imaging AI in the country has further stimulated the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock AI sector and medical sector. In the AI artificial intelligence sector,$FOURTH PARADIGM (06682.HK)$The closing price surged 10%.$CHINA LIT (00772.HK)$An increase of 5%,$XD INC (02400.HK)$An increase of 4%,$MEITU (01357.HK)$Up 2%; in the medical circuit,$EVEREST MED-B (01952.HK)$An increase of more than 8%,$KEYMED BIO-B (02162.HK)$Up more than 6%,$SINOPHARM (01099.HK)$An increase of more than 5%,$Hang Seng Healthcare Index (800804.HK)$The closing surged 2.2%.

It is worth noting that the market in the Hong Kong stock market is trending towards polarization between leading companies and leading companies. In the Hong Kong stock market adjustments some time ago, leading companies on each track did not drop significantly. While the index rebounded sharply on the 22nd, small market capitalization companies that had seriously overfallen in the previous period were still difficult to obtain financial recognition. Almost all of the active companies with high growth rankings were all clear large market capitalization companies.

The coverage direction of public funds is also generally directed towards competitive leading companies in the Hong Kong stock market.

According to the first quarter report disclosed by E-Fangda Blue Chip Select Fund, Star Fund Manager Zhang Kun continued to increase his positions in the Hong Kong stock market during the first quarter of this year, reaching about 43.99% of the stock positions held through Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is equivalent to about RMB 18.1 billion. Considering that the total market value of E-Fangda Blue Chip Select Fund's stock holdings is 38.8 billion yuan, this means that the “A-share fund” managed by Star Fund manager Kun Zhang accounts for close to 50% of Hong Kong stock investment.

Ruiyuan Fund is also increasing its position in the Hong Kong stock market. According to Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund's first-quarter report, the fair value of Hong Kong stocks invested by the fund through the Hong Kong Stock Connect trading mechanism was RMB 3,783 billion, accounting for 20.11% of the fund's net asset value at the end of the period. Ruiyuan Growth Value is jointly managed by Fu Pengbo and Zhu Yi. Similar to Zhang Kun's operation, Ruiyuan's Star Fund increased its position in Tencent Holdings in the first quarter of this year, holding 4.08 million shares, accounting for 6.6%, making it the fund's fourth largest stock.

The “Hong Kong content” of the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund soared

What is obvious is that in the context of the gradual recovery of the Hong Kong stock market, more and more fund managers are beginning to significantly increase the “Hong Kong content” of the stock pool based on cost performance.

According to the latest quarterly report, the Guangfa Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen New Start Fund, managed by star fund manager Lee Yiu-chu, has a market value of 1.33 billion yuan in Hong Kong stocks, and the total market value of the shares held is 2.33 billion yuan. This means that the significant changes in the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen theme fund from A-shares to Hong Kong stocks highlight the cost performance ratio and attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market.

Lee Yiu-chu, manager of the Guangfa Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen New Start Fund, which has Tencent as its largest stock holdings, believes that along the main line of medium- to long-term economic recovery, European interest rates may enter a downward cycle in the second half of 2024, and Internet technology companies are also one of the key areas to focus on. In the quarterly report of Guangfa, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, he said, “China's economic recovery is also a positive stimulus for outstanding Internet technology companies. Profit expectations in sectors such as social networking and lifestyle services with a stable pattern will rise steadily as economic expectations rise.”

Lee Yiu-chu further explained that the development prospects of the domestic Internet industry are full of vitality, especially in several fields such as artificial intelligence and cross-border e-commerce, showing outstanding growth potential. Among them, artificial intelligence, as a frontier of technological innovation, can effectively improve efficiency and enhance user experience, and is reshaping the ecological landscape of various industries such as advertising, gaming, and e-commerce. Meanwhile, with the recovery of global trade and the innovation of e-commerce platforms, cross-border e-commerce has also become a rapidly growing field. By optimizing supply chains, logistics services, and the use of digital tools, Chinese enterprises are expected to continue to occupy an important position in the global e-commerce sector.

Increasing “Hong Kong content” in the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund has brought significant performance flexibility to Guangfa's new starting point. Up to now, the yield of this product managed by Lee Yiu-chu has exceeded 17% this year, ranking 10% among similar funds.

Furthermore, the Qianhai Open Source Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Advantage Selection Fund, managed by Qu Yang of Qianhai Open Source Fund and Star Fund, also showed the color of Hong Kong stocks. The fund's first-quarter report showed that the market value of Hong Kong stocks held accounted for 50.7% of the total market value. The allocation direction of Hong Kong stocks was mainly aimed at high-end consumption, TMT, electric vehicles, healthcare, etc. What is obvious is that the gradual increase in “Hong Kong content” may mean that in the current context, the Hong Kong stock market may bring opportunities for excess earnings.

Internet racetrack depressions are very attractive

Regarding the next trends and investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market, many star fund managers are also optimistic in their first quarter reports.

Shi Bo, chief investment officer of China Southern Fund, believes that the Hong Kong stock market is determined by both China's economic fundamentals and global liquidity. Based on this framework, although it still faces some uncertainty in the future, the Hong Kong stock market is not pessimistic: the Fed's austerity cycle is probably over. Although the timing of the first interest rate cut is uncertain, the general direction of interest rate cuts has been determined. As long as there is no major change in direction, overseas liquidity will not have a major impact on the market. Expectations for economic growth will be the key to influencing future market trends. The return of China's manufacturing PMI above the boom and bust line in March also triggered discussions in the market about marginal economic improvement. Although differences are still huge, the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is in a depression, which reflects concerns about future economic growth to a large extent. This is fundamentally different from the market's optimistic recovery expectations in early 2023. Overall, the judgment on maintaining the fluctuation and upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market.

Zhang Kun, who has vigorously increased his holdings of Hong Kong stocks, also believes that one important reason stocks have a higher long-term yield than bonds is that stocks have continuous growth, and the necessary condition for high-quality stocks is to have long-term continuous growth. Therefore, the search for long-term growth should always be given considerable weight. Although in the period of high-quality development, the basic probability that the company will continue to grow rapidly is declining, we should never give up searching for moderate and continuous growth, and growth can also be obtained by searching for it in different segmented structures.

“Our long-term optimism about Hong Kong stocks has not changed, and the portfolio of investable Hong Kong stocks we manage has also been overbalanced.” Wang Guizhong, manager of Harvest Frontier Technology's Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen fund, believes that the economy and corporate profits can already be felt at the end of the first quarter. Recent manufacturing PMI data and the quarterly results and prospects of key Internet companies have exceeded expectations and are reasons for everyone to remain optimistic. The Internet and other Hong Kong stock technology industries declined after exceeding expectations in 2023. Under the reversal of macroeconomic expectations, there will be greater valuation flexibility. The first quarter will be more balanced, increasing the allocation of leading manufacturing companies. I believe that China's participation in deeper “re-globalization” will bring new growth space to Chinese companies, and many of these globally competitive companies have static price-earnings ratios of only 10 times, clearly underestimated, and are preparing for huge potential returns.

Editor/jayden

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