The major economic data, events and company results for this week (1·29-2·2) are as follows:
On the data side, the non-farm payrolls report will be heavily released on Friday. In addition, data such as the number of US ADP employees, the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI, and the US ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. On the Chinese side, investors can focus on the official manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI data.
In terms of the incident, the Federal Reserve's first interest rate meeting of the year will be held in a big way, and investors will be looking for clues as to when the Federal Reserve will switch. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row at the January meeting.
In terms of earnings, the US stock earnings season is at its peak, and most of the US “Big Seven” companies will announce their results, including Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta. Their market capitalization accounts for nearly 25% of the S&P 500 index. Also noteworthy are companies such as Pfizer, AMD, Boeing, Qualcomm, Novo Nordisk, and ExxonMobil.
Monday, January 29th
Keywords：ultra-microcomputer financial report; US January Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index
On Monday, in terms of economic data, the US Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index for January will be released on the same day.
In terms of company performance,$Royal Philips (PHG.US)$The new quarterly earnings report will be announced on January 29th EST.$SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$Financial reports will be announced before the US stock market,$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$It will be announced after the US stock market.
Tuesday, January 30th
Keywords: Microsoft, Google, AMD financial reports; US FHFA housing price index monthly rate, US Council of Representatives consumer confidence index
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, data such as the monthly rate of the US FHFA housing price index, the annual rate of the housing price index for 20 major US cities, and the US Council of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index will be released on the same day.
In terms of company performance, the market will focus on$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$/$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$,$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$The latest quarterly earnings report will be announced after the US stock market on January 30, EST.
Analysts expect that demand for AI services combined with cloud computing will boost Microsoft's long-term growth trend. The market generally predicts that Microsoft achieved revenue of 61,054 billion US dollars in Q2, an increase of 15.75% year on year; earnings per share were 2.76 US dollars, up 25.56% year on year.
Looking back at the previous quarter, Microsoft's performance completely exceeded expectations. FY24Q1 achieved revenue of $56.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The revenue growth rate rebounded to double-digit growth for the first time in nearly a year; net profit of US$22.3 billion, an increase of 27% over the previous year.
The market generally predicts that Google Q4 achieved revenue of US$85.228 billion, an increase of 12.07% year on year; earnings per share was 1.6 US dollars, an increase of 52.31% year on year.
Currently, Google has set off a wave of investment in the AI field. When integrating AI technology into products, whether AI can actually empower the company's profitability has become the focus of investors' attention in the latest results.
According to consistent market expectations, AMD is expected to achieve revenue of 6.139 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter, an increase of 9.64% over the previous year; earnings per share are 0.26 US dollars, an increase of nearly 25 times the previous year.
Furthermore,$Pfizer (PFE.US)$The new quarterly earnings report will be announced before the US stock market.$Starbucks (SBUX.US)$Financial results will be announced after the US stock market.
Related information:
Wednesday, January 31st
Keywords: China's official manufacturing PMI, US ADP employment numbers in January; Boeing, Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm financial reports
On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the National Bureau of Statistics will release manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for January.
In December 2023, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing boom level declined somewhat. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
China Galaxy Securities believes that looking ahead to 2024, signs of strong countercyclical policies are already reflected in the construction industry PMI, and momentum for a recovery in external demand is also being formed. It is expected that China's manufacturing PMI will gradually return to a critical value.
Additionally, the number of ADP employees in the US for January, known as “small non-farmers,” will be announced. The US API crude oil inventory for the week up to January 26, the quarterly rate of the US labor cost index for the fourth quarter, and the US EIA crude oil inventory for the week until January 26 will also be announced on the same day.
In terms of company performance,$Boeing (BA.US)$The new quarterly earnings report will be announced on January 31, EST.$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$,$Nasdaq (NDAQ.US)$Financial reports will be released before the US stock market.$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$,$Wolfspeed (WOLF.US)$Financial reports will be announced after the US stock market.
Qualcomm has predicted that revenue for the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2024 will reach 9.1 billion US dollars to 9.9 billion US dollars. This performance outlook exceeds analysts' previous expectations; the CDMA technology division's revenue will reach between 7.7 billion US dollars and 8.3 billion US dollars; and the technology licensing division's revenue will reach 1.3 billion US dollars to 1.5 billion US dollars.
Thursday February 1st
Keywords: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference; Apple, Amazon, Meta Financial Report; China Caixin Manufacturing PMI; US Initial Unemployment Claims; US Markit Manufacturing PMI
In terms of economic events, the Federal Reserve's first interest rate meeting of the year will be held, and investors will be looking for clues as to when the Fed will turn.
The market generally expects that the US Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting at the first monetary policy meeting at the end of January 30-31. The real focus will be on the March meeting and beyond. Currently, traders' expectations for the possibility of interest rate cuts in March have dropped below 50%.
Following the January meeting, the next FOMC interest rate setting meeting is scheduled to be held from March 19 to 20. If the Federal Reserve intends to cut interest rates in March, then this meeting is an excellent opportunity to show its intentions. However, if policymakers consider keeping interest rates at current levels after March, then it is best to dampen market enthusiasm.
Additionally, investors will be watching for any new hints from Chairman Powell at the press conference regarding the timing of the first rate cut. According to some analysts, Powell may avoid giving an accurate schedule of interest rate cuts while trying to suppress expectations of policy changes as early as March. However, Powell is unlikely to completely rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates in the first half of this year, which will benefit risky assets.
In terms of economic data, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI, the number of US jobless claims for the week up to January 27, the final US Markit manufacturing PMI for January, the US monthly construction expenditure rate for December, the US ISM manufacturing PMI for January, and the US EIA gas inventory for the week up to January 26 will be announced on the same day.
In terms of the company's performance, investors will focus on$Apple (AAPL.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Meta Platforms (META.US)$The latest quarterly results will be released after the US stock market on February 1, EST.
According to Bloomberg analysts' expectations, Apple's Q1 revenue was 118.81 billion US dollars, up 1% year on year; adjusted net profit was 32.32 billion US dollars, up 8% year on year; and earnings per share were 2.11 US dollars. In the fourth quarter results report of fiscal year 2023, Apple's quarterly revenue was US$89.5 billion, four consecutive quarters of decline.
Bloomberg analysts pointed out that Apple's short-term growth is expected to remain in the low to middle single digits, mainly driven by the service business. Its business depends on a user base of more than 2 billion active devices. Even if product sales are weak, businesses such as Apple Music and iCloud storage will continue to thrive. Weak Chinese consumers and increasing competition may hinder short-term growth.
Bank of America Securities recently released a report saying that Amazon's recent third-party sales data is positive. It is expected that retail revenue for the fourth quarter will rise, operating profit margins will be close to or above the upper limit of the guideline, while Amazon Cloud Computing Services (AWS) revenue expectations are bleak, in line with market estimates of a 12.5% to 13% increase, but investors believe that in the end, it may be higher than the market forecast level.
Furthermore,$Merck & Co (MRK.US)$ ,$Ferrari (RACE.US)$Earnings will be released before the US stock market.
Friday February 2nd
Keywords: US non-farm payrolls after seasonal adjustment; US unemployment rate; final value of the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index; ExxonMobil, Chevron financial reports
On Friday, in terms of economic data, it's the monthly “Non-Farm Week” — the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest employment situation report.
Currently, economists expect the number of non-farm workers to increase by 162,000 in January, while the unemployment rate will remain at 3.7%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast that, following an increase of 216,000 in December, the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls in the US will increase by about 180,000 in January.
The number of non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 216,000 in December. It is estimated to increase by 175,000, compared to the previous value, an increase of 199,000. The average hourly wage in the US increased by 4.1% year-on-year in December, and is estimated to increase by 3.9%. The number of non-farm payrolls in the private sector increased by 164,000. The previous month was an increase of 136,000, and an estimated increase of 130,000.
In addition, the US unemployment rate for January, the US monthly factory order rate for December, the final value of the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index for January, and the US inflation rate for January 1 will be announced on the same day.
In terms of company performance,$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ ,$Chevron (CVX.US)$,$Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US)$The new quarterly earnings report will be announced in advance of the US stock market on February 2, EST.
Good luck with your investments in the new week!
Editor/jayden