23H1 实现蓝莓销售量 6600 吨，单吨利润2 万元，符合预期。其中，Q1销售蓝莓 1570 旽，营收1.37 亿元，销售均价约 85 元/kg，实现盈利 0.8 亿元，单吨盈利超过5 万元；23Q2 销售蓝莓5030 吨，营收2 亿元，销售均价 40元/kg，实现盈利 0.54 亿元，单吨盈利1.1 万元。盈利能力环比下滑主要来自于蓝莓价格季节性下行的影响，公司已经开始积极进行蓝莓促早，预计最早今年11 月可初见成果。将蓝莓产季整体前移 1-2 个月，能够规避蓝莓价格季节性波动的影响，提升蓝莓销售单价，增强公司的盈利能力，我们坚定看好公司未来在蓝莓生鲜产业的发展。公司今年已经完成蓝莓定植2 万亩，若按照亩产1-1.2吨来计算，保守估计明年蓝莓业务将贡献 2-2.4 万吨产量，按照单吨2 万元来计算的话，预计至少将贡献4 亿元的利润。Event Overview: The company released its annual report on August 23. 23H1 achieved revenue of 2.55 billion yuan, -3.0% year-on-year; realized net profit of 3.4 billion yuan, +5.3% year-on-year. 23Q2 achieved revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, -11.1% year-on-year and -10.8% month-on-month; realized net profit of 120 million yuan, -23.1% year-on-year, and -45.3% month-on-month.
23H1's comprehensive gross profit margin was 31.6%, +3.0 PCT year on year. The decline in 23Q2 performance was mainly dragged down by the cyclical downturn in the pesticide formulation industry, and fresh food businesses such as blueberries still performed well.
Featured fresh food business: 23H1 achieved revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, +259.1% year-on-year. Among them, blueberries were 351 million yuan, dragon fruit was 53 million yuan, and bird's nest fruit was 111 million yuan; 23H1 achieved net profit of about 146 million yuan, +649.6% year-on-year, including 134 million yuan for blueberries and 112 million yuan for dragon fruit (consolidated table). Bird's nest fruit has a basic break-loss balance.
23H1 achieved sales volume of 6,600 tons of blueberries and a profit of 20,000 yuan per ton, in line with expectations. Among them, Q1 sold 1,570 million yuan of blueberries, with revenue of 137 million yuan and an average sales price of about 85 yuan/kg, achieving a profit of 80 million yuan and a profit of over 50,000 yuan per ton; 23Q2 sold 5030 tons of blueberries, with an average sales price of 200 million yuan, an average sales price of 40 yuan/kg, achieving a profit of 54 million yuan and a profit of 11,000 yuan per ton. The month-on-month decline in profitability is mainly due to the seasonal decline in blueberry prices. The company has already begun to actively promote blueberries. It is expected that results will begin to be seen as early as November this year. Moving the overall blueberry production season forward by 1-2 months can avoid the impact of seasonal fluctuations in blueberry prices, increase the unit sales price of blueberries, and enhance the company's profitability. We are firmly optimistic about the company's future development in the fresh blueberry industry. The company has planted 20,000 mu of blueberries this year. If calculated from 1-1.2 tons per mu, it is conservatively estimated that next year's blueberry business will contribute 20,000 to 24,000 tons of production. Based on a single ton of 20,000 yuan, it is expected to contribute at least 400 million yuan in profit.
Main business (pesticide formulations, Hetian district): 23H1 achieved revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, -15.1% year-on-year; realized net profit of 192 million yuan, or -36.3% year-on-year. Among them, 23Q2 achieved net profit of 65 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 52.0% over the previous year. Mainly due to the sharp drop in the prices of the upstream raw materials glyphosate and glyphosate, the prices of pesticide formulation products followed by the decline, and the willingness of dealers to buy goods declined, mainly through centralized inventory removal, which led to a sharp drop in the company's sales volume. At present, dealers have almost finished going to the warehouse. Demand for inventory replenishment will be restarted in the fourth quarter, compounded by a significant drop in procurement costs for original drugs, and a significant increase in gross margin. We expect 23Q4's pesticide formulation business to recover quite flexibly.
Investment suggestions: The company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 is estimated to be 403, 7.16 million yuan, and 958 million yuan respectively, EPS is 0.40, 0.72, and 0.96 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE is 16, 9, and 7 times, respectively. The company continues to implement the “single specialty crop industry chain” strategy, expand the blueberry industry to create a second growth curve. At the same time, the main business continuously optimizes the product structure and marketing model, two-wheel drive realizes collaborative development of the industry, and continues to maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Production capacity investment fell short of expectations, agricultural product prices fluctuated greatly, and raw material prices fluctuated.