Event: on April 27, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company realized income of 3.48 billion yuan, an increase of 14.91% over the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 300 million yuan, an increase of 18.23% over the same period last year.
Comments:
Geothermal and compressor business is growing year-on-year, and profitability is steadily rising. In 2021, Kaishan shares achieved a total operating income of 3.48 billion yuan, an increase of 14.91% over the same period last year. Among them, the income of compressor series products was 2.666 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year. The company's SMGP power station sold electricity revenue of US $38.3 million in 2021, a rapid growth compared with 196 million of geothermal power generation in 2020. The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin in 2021 were 30.01% and 8.86% respectively, slightly higher than in 2020. With the increase in the share of revenue from high-end large equipment such as geothermal business and centrifuges, the company's profitability is expected to rise steadily.
Geothermal technology has been verified and everything is ready for "take-off". Geothermal power generation is a clean, renewable, sustainable, low carbon footprint and low greenhouse gas emission energy. After nearly three years of grid-connected verification of Kaishan geothermal power generation business, the advantages of the company's geothermal power station in availability, power generation efficiency, dependence on geothermal resources, investment cost, construction cycle and full-process development capacity have been highlighted, and the installed scale has increased year by year. The cumulative global installed capacity in 2021 is 15854 MW, the new installed capacity in 2021 is 246MW, and the installed capacity of geothermal power generation (including EPC project) in 2021 is about 48.2MW, with a global market share of nearly 20%. Indonesia and the United States, where Kaishan geothermal power generation is mainly distributed, are rich in geothermal resources and have a good policy environment. Indonesia's RUPTL originally planned to add 3355 megawatts of geothermal capacity by 2030, accounting for 8% of the total new installed capacity of renewable energy plans, while the US market has a flexible tax preference system and a developed new energy portfolio financing market. The company currently has a wealth of projects in hand, and a number of projects under construction are being carried out in an orderly manner. The company's Indonesia SGI project has been connected to the grid in the first quarter of 2022, and there are more power stations connected to the grid this year. At present, the company leads the world in geothermal business technology, geothermal resources are sufficient to support long-term development, and the policy environment is better. With sufficient financial support, the company's geothermal business will grow rapidly.
The layout of globalization is advancing steadily, and the technological strength continues to be in the lead. Kaishan Co., Ltd. is the first enterprise in China to invest in the R & D and manufacture of screw compressors and achieve success. the company has established a dominant position in China by relying on leading technology, and began to open up the global market. The company has many R & D centers in the United States and four R & D centers in China, and the overall energy efficiency of its products is in the leading position in the industry. and the company has international first-class products sold globally in process compressors, gas compressors, refrigerant compressors, blowers, vacuum pumps and other application fields, with technical capabilities covering almost all fields such as screw, high pressure reciprocating, centrifugal, axial flow, scroll and so on. At the same time, high-end products such as oil-free screw compressors also occupy a leading position in China. In 2009, the company set up an R & D center in North America. Since 2011, the company has set up channel companies in Melbourne, Taichung, Loxley, Mumbai, Dubai, Warsaw and Ho Chi Minh City, and has KCA US subsidiaries and LMF Austria subsidiaries. KCA, a US subsidiary, has grown rapidly and has an 8.6% market share in the United States in just three years, with a budget revenue of about $40 million. Sales in the Indian market are growing exponentially, the Asia-Pacific region is also gradually breaking through, and the global layout of the company is gradually showing results.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the net profit from 2022 to 2024 to be 463 million yuan, 725 million yuan and 1.035 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS is 0.47 yuan per share, 0.73 yuan per share and 1.04 yuan per share, respectively, and the corresponding share price PE is 25 times, 16 times and 11 times respectively.
Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk factors: deterioration of macro environment; lower-than-expected project financing; increased financial costs and exchange rate risk.
