share_log

【安信证券】天山生物:布局牛肉全产业链,争做中国牛肉产业第一股!

安信證券 ·  Apr 12, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company's strategic positioning: The entire industry chain lays out Angus beef cattle breeding, and the products are positioned in high-end restaurants. The company introduced purebred Angus cows from Australia and raised them according to US grain-fed beef standards, positioned the Western food and foreign food consumer markets for high-end beef in China, and filled the supply and demand gap for high-end beef in China. The purebred Angus beef beef produced by the company is not only of better meat quality and higher grade than grass-fed beef imported from Australia and New Zealand, but even though it also has a strong price competitive advantage compared to the same grade of American grain-fed beef, the original excellent germplasm and pasture advantages have established a certain barrier to the company's entire industry chain strategy for large beef cattle, and its differentiated competitive advantage is remarkable. Company industrial layout: The company took the lead in seizing grassland resources, adopted cooperative farming with farmers, achieved asset-light breeding, and gradually entered the harvest period. Through the “company+farmer” farming model, the quality of germplasm and food safety guaranteed by the “two belts in the middle”, the company achieves traceability at the source, sells to high-end consumer markets at the terminal, provides farmers with breeding technical services and financing support in the middle, improves farmers' breeding efficiency, reduces the company's fixed asset investment risks and production costs, and helps expand the scale of farming. We expect the number of purebred Angus to be released in 16-18 to reach 2,500/7000/14,000 heads, with an average gross profit of more than 40%. Earnings are about to enter a period of reverse high growth. Industry opportunities: High-end western beef is the main direction of beef consumption upgrading. The domestic beef market is about 400 billion dollars, and the high-end Western beef market has increased 100 times in 9 years, reaching 60 to 70 billion dollars. The rise of the middle class and the post-90s, influenced by Western culture, became the main consumer force behind the continued growth in demand. The high-end western beef market is a new blue ocean. 1) Smuggled beef from the US, which has traditionally occupied this market, is gradually declining; 2) domestic beef is an isolated market from high-end Western beef due to insufficient variety and business philosophy; 3) Imported Australian beef is limited by breeding methods and slaughter industry systems, and is a middle- to low-end beef that cannot meet high-end catering needs. Investment suggestion: Due to the uncertainty of distribution issues, the impact of additional distribution will not be considered yet. We expect the company to achieve net profit of -0.32/0.39/200 million yuan in 2015-17, corresponding to an EPS of -0.17/0.21/1.07 yuan. An investment rating of Buy-A was given for the first time. The target price for 6 months is 26.75 yuan, which is equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 25 times in '17. Risk warning: policy risk; food safety risk;

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment