Key investment points, fresh products create industry barriers, and the concentration of leading industries has increased: China's agricultural production shows characteristics such as small scale and decentralization (similar to Japan), supermarkets are difficult to connect with, and the agricultural batch market accounts for more than 80% of the agricultural product distribution chain. Currently, the loss rate of fresh food circulation in China has reached 25%-30%, and the operating costs of fresh e-commerce are high. Fresh products are the strongest barrier to the agricultural market, so it is difficult to replace them in the short term. Referring to Japan's experience, the agricultural batch market will still play a central role in the distribution of agricultural products in the medium to long term. There are 1,708 agricultural markets across the country. Industry concentration is low, and there is plenty of room for integration. The company occupies 7% of the national market share and ranks first in the agricultural product distribution field. As an industry leader, it is expected to benefit from industry integration. The equity competition is expected to escalate again, and Life Life may become a major shareholder: Anbang's listing of a major European and Asian businessman has become a phenomenal event, which will greatly trigger the market's attention to the entire retail industry and form a cognitive inflection point. Insurance funds are all big and small, and the sleeping value of high-quality retail companies is expected to awaken. The Shenzhen State-owned Assets Administration Commission is the controlling shareholder of the company, holding a total of 32% of the company's shares. Life Life's current shareholding ratio is as high as 29.97%, which is only 2.03% short of the majority shareholders. We expect that within the year, Life Life will complete the listing and actual control. The omni-channel layout of online and offline agricultural products has been continuously improved, and profit models are diversified: the company's offline agricultural batch market has matured, created a high-end brand in the Haijixing agricultural batch market that meets international standards, and has formed a profit model of “transaction commission+store storage commission+supporting real estate development+logistics distribution”. The company has a comprehensive online layout in agricultural products B2B/B2C/exchanges, etc., and initially formed a multi-channel e-commerce system, with strong customer stickiness. The company gathered 50,000 wholesalers online and offline and accumulated a large amount of data with a transaction volume of 150 billion dollars. The company connects upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, boosts supply chain finance, and provides services such as financing guarantees, microfinance, and P2P finance. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the physical market and the advancement of electronic transactions, supply chain finance will become a new profit flashpoint. The revaluation value of assets is high, and the margin of stock price safety is sufficient: after the company proposed a networked development strategy in 2008, it accelerated the expansion of the physical network, adding an average of 3-5 reserve projects every year. Currently, the company has 29 agricultural markets with a total construction area of 15.76 million square meters and an equity area of 9.39 million square meters. Mutual collaboration and interconnection among various agricultural batch markets forms huge network value. The physical markets are all located in logistics hub cities. Land resources are scarce, and revaluation values are high. However, the current market value of the company is only 30.4 billion yuan, and the corresponding market value is only 3,237 yuan per square meter, which is far below the revaluation value of land, and the margin for stock price safety is sufficient. Profit forecast: The 2015-2017 EPS is expected to be 0.06/0.08/0.09 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding 2016 PE is 211.26X. However, the company still has 11 agricultural markets still under construction. At the same time, businesses such as e-commerce and supply chain finance are still in the development stage, and their contribution to performance is small, and PE valuations cannot reflect the company's value. If the company's offline equity land is revalued at 5,000 yuan/square meter corresponding to NAV39.25 billion; the online transaction volume is 40 billion yuan and the valuation of 0.5 xPGMV corresponds to the equity value of 5.4 billion yuan. The total of the two is 44.65 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 26.31 billion yuan, giving it a purchase rating. Risk warning: equity competition and state-owned enterprise reform fall short of expectations; too long new market cultivation period drags down performance
【东吴证券】农产品:线上线下农产品流通巨头+保险举牌预期+资产重估价值巨大
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The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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