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【国信证券】永大集团:在对传统的替代中前行

國信證券 ·  Oct 17, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Vacuum permanent magnet technology may become mainstream in the future industry, and vacuum arc extinguishing has completed market replacement in the high voltage field. Permanent magnet mechanisms are more suitable for vacuum circuit breakers due to their advantages of high reliability, long life, and easy maintenance. Vacuum permanent magnet technology has obvious performance advantages and is gradually being recognized by the market. Permanent magnet switches are in the market introduction period, and the future market potential is huge. According to conservative estimates, the output value of high voltage permanent magnet switches will reach 20 billion yuan in 2015. Coupled with the low-voltage field, the market potential for permanent magnet switches is huge. In the next few years, permanent magnet switches will gradually gain market recognition as an alternative to traditional spring switches. The company has strong technical strength and a market-leading advantage. The company is the largest permanent magnet product production and development base in China. It has always positioned itself in the high-end market, focused on technical research, and obtained many major technological breakthroughs and multiple invention patents. At present, the company's brand building and marketing channels have begun to bear fruit. Risk warning permanent magnet vacuum circuit breakers are currently still in the market introduction period. There are certain risks about whether they can be widely recognized in the market and how long it takes to obtain market approval. At present, many domestic listed companies have incorporated permanent magnet technology into their development strategies. After successfully passing through the market introduction period, permanent magnet vacuum circuit breakers are likely to face the risk of increased competition and declining gross margin. The reasonable value is between 19.58 and 24.46 yuan/share, and the company's earnings per share after 11-13 years of dilution will be 0.78, 1.11, and 1.44 yuan, respectively. According to our absolute valuation and relative valuation results, the reasonable value of the company is 19.58 to 24.46 yuan/share. The corresponding price-earnings ratio for 2011 was 25.00 to 31.22 times.

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