Global macro

• The futures of the three major US stock indexes rose slightly before Wednesday's trading.

  

• The Federal Reserve meeting is coming tonight! Raising interest rates by 75 basis points seems to be a foregone conclusion.
  

A number of Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Goldman Sachs Group and Barclays, expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at the meeting, which is almost certain and unlikely. In addition to the rate hike, the market is also very concerned about the bitmap and economic outlook released by the Federal Reserve after the meeting. Compared with the recent market controversy of "raising interest rates by 75 basis points or 100 basis points", this part is related to the Fed's later process of raising interest rates and may have a greater impact on the market.

• Bears are also "confused"! Short sellers in US stocks cashed out after a huge loss of $59 billion.

As investors wait for the Fed's decision, a counterintuitive trend is emerging: as investors cash out of the market, short positions fall again. Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of forecast analysis at S3 Partners, compiled data up to mid-September and said short positions in the Russell 3000 index fell by $12 billion in the third quarter after traders lost about $59 billion at mark to market. This is 6 per cent lower than the average short position of $986 billion.

• Real interest rates in the United States soar! Wall Street shouted: stocks exit, opportunities for bonds arise

Real yields on Treasuries, known as "asset pricing anchors", soared to an 11-year high as traders bet that the Fed would violently raise interest rates and keep them high for years to come in an attempt to cool inflation. Goldman Sachs Group's strategists say that "over a long period of time", investors who buy US Treasuries or hold cash will soon get "impossible" returns from the past 15 years. As the Fed makes progress in fighting inflation, it is hoped that bonds will have more ability to hedge against stock crashes, said Amundi's chief investment officer.

• Sister Mu refutes Dr. Doomsday's "inflation-driven recession theory": deflation will take root in the US economy

Roubini, an economist who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warned that an inflation-driven recession would deal a major blow to the US economy. Mr Wood refutes Roubini's "inflation-driven recession", insisting on her long-held view that deflation will take root in the US economy. Wood also said recent gasoline demand data were the reason to believe deflation was just around the corner.

• Us stocks still have a bullet after the Fed's decision. The dismal Q3 earnings season is coming.

Although the focus of the market this week is still on the Fed's interest rate decision, as the third-quarter earnings season approaches, U. S. stocks are likely to see more bloodshed in the future. Wall Street analysts slashed their third-quarter earnings forecasts for US companies between July and August because of delays in problems such as high inflation and supply chain disruptions. Wall Street banks, including Charles Schwab Corp, expect this to push US stocks down further for the rest of the year.

• Wells Fargo & Co criticized the Fed for raising interest rates too slowly, joking that interest rates should be raised by 150bp this week.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will hold a two-day interest rate meeting on Wednesday, and the monetary policy results will be announced in the early hours of Sept. 22, Beijing time. Michael Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo & Co, said that if he were Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, he would seriously consider raising interest rates by 150bp this week. He hinted that the Fed is now raising interest rates too slowly.

Hot news

• The pre-market trend of star technology stocks is divided.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co: it is estimated that by 2025, Apple Inc may transfer 1/4 of iPhone production to India.

JPMorgan Chase & Co analyst said on Wednesday that by 2025$Apple (AAPL.US)$It is possible to produce 1/4 iPhone in India. The bank expects Apple Inc to transfer about 5 per cent of iPhone 14 production to India, the world's second-largest smartphone market after China, from the end of 2022. Apple Inc has been making big bets in India since he began assembling the iPhone in India through Wittronic and later Foxconn in 2017 to tie in with the Indian government's push for local manufacturing. "in the medium to long term, we also expect Apple Inc to be qualified as a local manufacturing supplier in India," said JPMorgan Chase & Co, an analyst led by Gokul Hariharan.

• Production capacity expansion has achieved results! Tesla, Inc. 's backlog of orders decreased by nearly 90, 000 vehicles.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$According to the latest report released by Troy Teslike, a service that tracks production and sales data, Tesla, Inc. had a backlog of about 414000 vehicles as of Aug. 31, equivalent to its 102-day production, well below the figure of about 500000 in the March-July period. The report points out that the decline in Tesla, Inc. 's backlog appears to be related to the Shanghai and Fremont superfactories, which are now producing more than historically high levels.

• Micron Technology Inc fell more than 2% before trading, and the revenue forecast for the fourth quarter was pessimistic. The agency said the downward cycle of the DRAM market began.

Research firm IC Insights said a few days ago that the DRAM market has fallen sharply. Global DRAM product sales fell 36 per cent in June from a month earlier and fell another 21 per cent in July from a month earlier, down about 50 per cent from May. According to the agency's analysis, DRAM sales have fallen sharply, while manufacturers are also pessimistic about their near-term performance outlook.$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Revenue for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (as of August) is expected to be-21 per cent, while DRAM in South Asia in August was 53 per cent lower than in March. As of press time, Micron Technology Inc was down more than 2% before trading.

• Lockheed Martin Corp rose more than 2% before trading, and Switzerland officially purchased 36 Fmai 35A fighters.

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.US) $rose 2% before the day's trading. The Swiss government confirmed yesterday that it had formally signed a contract with US military industrial company Lockheed Martin to purchase 36 F-35A fighter jets worth about US $6.2 billion, which will be delivered between 2027 and 2030.

• Intel Corp, Ultra Micro warning: the current PC market situation is even worse than the low ebb expected in the previous financial report.

According to reports, the world's personal computer (PC) central processing unit (CPU) two giants $Intel Corp (INTC.US) $and $Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.US) $both admitted that the current PC market situation is even worse than the previous low ebb, ultra micro more bluntly said that the current PC market "chaos", worse than the original earnings forecast by about 15%. It is worth noting that Intel Corp and Ultra Micro Global PC CPU have a combined market share of more than 90%, which is an absolute leading indicator for grasping the development of the industry boom.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Hot Chinese stocks fell collectively before the day of trading.

• XPeng Inc. G9 is officially listed with a starting price of 309900 yuan

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$CEO he Xiaopeng said at the G9 conference that the XPeng Inc. G9 will launch six models at a price of 309900-469900 yuan, and the G9 will officially begin delivery at the end of October. As of press time, XPeng Inc. was down more than 1 per cent before trading.

• Pinduoduo: the "cut a knife" function will not be available overseas for the time being.

According to Latepost later.$Pinduoduo (PDD.US)$The "cut a knife" function will not be launched overseas for the time being, and the team may take the form of content community on the mobile side to improve the transaction conversion rate. Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce project, Temu, was launched on September 1, half a month ahead of schedule. Currently, the first batch of users to place orders on Temu have received the goods.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Reminder of the macro calendar of US stocks

September twenty _ first

22:00 Total annualized sales of existing homes in the United States in August

EIA crude Oil inventory for the week from 22:30 to 16 September

September twenty _ second

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision from 02:00 to September 21 (ceiling)

02:00 Federal Reserve FOMC released interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic forecasts.

At 02:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference on monetary policy.