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富途早报 | 「鹰王」布拉德泼冷水!支持9月再加息75基点;小摩捍卫逢低吸纳建议,警告美联储可能犯过激错误

Fu Tu Morning Post "Eagle King" Brad poured cold water on it! Support another 75 basis points interest rate hike in September; Morgan Stanley defends the bargain-hunting proposal and warns the Fed that it may make drastic mistakes

富途資訊 ·  Aug 19, 2022 08:15

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Hot news

  • "Eagle King" Brad: the theory of inflation peaking remains to be proved, supporting another 75 basis points increase in interest rates in September.

On Thursday, Aug. 18, local time, St. Louis Fed Chairman Bullard said he was considering supporting the Fed to maintain its previous rate hike of 75 basis points at its September meeting. And indicated thatWe have good economic data and very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue to raise policy rates to restricted areas.

  • Fed Daley: it is too early to declare victory over inflation. Interest rates will not be cut soon next year.

On Thursday, Aug. 18, local time, San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said it was too early to declare the fight against inflation and that the Fed should raise interest rates to just above 3% by the end of the year to curb inflation. She also refuted the idea that the Fed would soon turn to cutting interest rates. Daley did not make it clear, saying only that it would be appropriate for the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points at next month's interest rate meeting, depending on changes in inflation, employment and other economic indicators.

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  • Behind the rally in US stocks: after the quantitative fund closed its short positions, it began to do long.

After the worst first half in history, US stocks started a rebound model in the second half of the year. Since July, the Nasdaq composite index is up nearly 17%, and the s & p 500 is up nearly 13%. The rebound in US stocks highlights the fading of investor pessimism after large-scale short-selling quantitative funds quickly closed short positions and then turned long. In response, Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura, said the quantitative fund changed its position "quickly and calmly" and seized the opportunity of a "very bear market" in the position of Xunlei Ltd.

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co Kolanovic defends bargain-hunting advice and warns that the Fed may make drastic mistakes

As one of Wall Street's most staunch bulls, JPMorgan Chase & Co strategist Marko Kolanovic is defending his bargain buying proposal for 2022, while warning that the Fed's hawkish approach could disrupt financial markets. While the Fed's more hawkish decision at its September meeting could disrupt markets, the Kolanovic said corporate buybacks and demand from rules-based traders could provide a buffer for stocks. His team stuck to the S & P's year-end target of 4800.

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  • Indonesian President: Indonesia may levy nickel export tax this year

Indonesian President Joko Widodo said Indonesia may impose an export tax on nickel this year. An Indonesian government official said in early 2022 that the country was studying a progressive tax on nickel pig iron and ferronickel. Widodo confirmed in an interview in Jakarta on Thursday that Indonesia is considering a tax. There has been a surge in demand for battery metals such as nickel, lithium and cobalt due to the global promotion of electric vehicles. While Indonesia has benefited from rising nickel prices, Widodo hopes Indonesia's position in the global electric car supply chain will rise. President Widodo said he hoped to eventually stop the export of all raw nickel.

  • "We are witnessing a recession in the US housing market": sales of existing homes fell for six months in July, hitting a two-year low

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), total sales of existing homes unexpectedly fell for the sixth consecutive month in July, hitting a two-year low, according to data from the National Association of Realtors on Thursday. "in terms of home sales and construction, we are witnessing a recession in the housing market," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. However, this is not a decline in house prices, inventories are still tight, and house prices continue to rise across the country. "

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  • Is the Biden administration bragging? The estimated increase in the supply of 1.8 million doses of monkeypox vaccine turned out to be "one and five".

The White House announced on Aug. 18 that the government will increase the supply of an additional 1.8 million doses of monkeypox vaccine in response to the worsening monkeypox epidemic. At a White House news conference, Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Dawn O'Connell revealed the truth. O'Connell said HHS will distribute 360000 doses of monkeypox vaccine, but after the new injection law, it will be 1.8 million doses.

Review of US stocks

  • The three major indexes closed slightly higher, while WSB concept stocks led the decline.

The three major indexes of u.s. stocks closed slightly higher, with the Dow up 0.06%, the s & p 500 up 0.23% and the Nasdaq up 0.21%.

Large technology stocks were mixed, including Microsoft Corp down 0.39%, Tesla, Inc. down 0.37%, Apple Inc down 0.23%, Amazon.Com Inc up 0.14%, and Alphabet Inc-CL A up 0.52%.

WSB concept stocks led the decline, 3B home fell nearly 20%, AMC cinema chain fell more than 9%, game stations fell more than 6%.

Most of the hot Chinese stocks fell, Baidu, Inc. fell by more than 3%, Bilibili Inc. fell by more than 2%, JD.com, Pinduoduo and XPeng Inc. fell by more than 1%, and BABA rose 1%.

  • Meme frenzy to reduce fever? Leading figures take the lead in high clearance of 3B homes

As an operation sufficient to be written into the "typical case of American stocks of the year", the leader of the recent Meme stock uprising after Thursday's trading.$Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY.US)$It was announced that RC VENTURES, a subsidiary of Ryan Cohen, a well-known investor, had cleared all its shares.

As a backdrop to this, RC VENTURES disclosed earlier this week that it had subscribed for call options with an exercise price of $60 to $80 when the company's share price was just over $10, which sparked heated discussion among retail investors and followed the hype. However, after the stock price soared, RC VENTURES first submitted its form 144 after trading on Wednesday, revealing that it was possible to sell all its holdings, and completed all the operations at the speed of light on Wednesday and Thursday, selling prices ranging from $18 to $29 (with an average position cost of $15.34). Even the newly bought call options did not forget to sell.image

(source: SEC)

  • The prototype of "American TV series billions" announced 13F: copy the bottom of Chinese stocks.

Point72 Hong Kong, a hedge fund owned by Wall Street tycoon Steven Cohen, released a position report showing that at the end of the second quarter, Point72 Hong Kong went to the bottom of Chinese stocks and bought new stocks in the top 10 heavy stocks.$Vipshop (VIPS.US)$$JOYY (YY.US)$$Alibaba (BABA.US)$, add positions$Yum China (YUMC.US)$$ZTO Express (ZTO.US)$The increase in Yum China's position was as high as 1905%.

  • The financial report exceeded expectations, Cisco Systems achieved the biggest increase in the past two years.

Driven by the positive after-hours results on Wednesday$Cisco (CSCO.US)$It closed up 5.81% on Thursday. According to media statistics, this is also the company's biggest one-day increase since November 2020. In addition to the better-than-expected earnings figures, the company's revenue growth guidance for 2023 (4% wk. 6%) nearly doubled analysts' expectations and boosted market sentiment.

  • Qualcomm Inc intends to challenge the server chip market again.

According to media reports on Thursday, after the acquisition of chip startup Nuvia in 2021$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Efforts are being made to re-challenge the server chip market to reduce dependence on the mobile phone chip market. It is reported that Amazon Cloud Service has agreed to "take a look" at the company's products. Qualcomm Inc also had an interest in the server chip market four years ago, but after defending against Broadcom Ltd's hostile takeover, he had to give up in order to save money. Qualcomm Inc closed up 1.92 per cent on Thursday on the news.

  • The performance exceeded expectations, rising nearly 32% after Wolfspeed's performance.

$Wolfspeed (WOLF.US) $fourth-quarter revenue of $228 million, exceeding expectations of $208 million; adjusted loss per share of 2 cents, lower than expected loss of 10 cents per share. The company expects revenue of $2.325 to $247.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, an adjusted loss of 2-8 cents per share, and a market forecast of 7 cents. CEO said revenue for fiscal 2026 would be 30-40 per cent higher than the $2.1 billion forecast at the end of last year. By the close, Wolfspeed was up nearly 32 per cent.

  • The US Department of Defense will submit an evaluation report on Microsoft Corp's AR glasses in the near future.

Jessica Maxwell, a spokesman for the Defense Department's testing office, said on Thursday that the test, which ended in June, was enough to detect$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The preliminary test report on whether the military AR glasses are better than the prototype will be submitted to senior military officials at the end of August, while the final report will be sent to Congress in October. According to previous tenders, the US Department of Defense will purchase up to $21.9 billion worth of Microsoft Corp AR glasses over the next decade.

  • Goldman Sachs Group: raise Target Corp's target price to US $205and maintain his buy rating.

Goldman Sachs Group analyst Kate McShane will$Target (TGT.US)$Raised its target price to $205 from $155 and maintained its buy rating on the stock. In a research report, McShane told investors that Target Corp's sales trend was strong in the second quarter, with an increase in passenger traffic and an increase in unit share. She added that Target Corp's profitability should improve in the second half of 2022, given the reduction in price reduction activities as a result of improved inventory conditions.

Yesterday's turnover of US stocks TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

  • Beishuijing bought nearly HK $500m for Tencent and then sold Meituan for more than HK $300m

Tencent, Hang Seng Chinese Enterprises and Wuxi Biologics received a net purchase of HK $474 million, HK $210 million and HK $145 million respectively. China Mobile Limited, Meituan-W and Kuaishou Technology-W received a net sale of HK $345 million, HK $308 million and HK $175 million respectively.

Southbound Capital has sold Meituan for five consecutive trading days, totaling about HK $2.28573 billion.

  • NetEase, Inc: revenue in the second quarter was 23.2 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% over the same period last year.

$NetEase, Inc.-S (09999.HK)$Revenue in the second quarter was 23.2 billion yuan, up 12.8% from a year earlier; gross profit in the second quarter was 12.9 billion yuan. The continuing operating net profit attributable to the company's shareholders under non-generally accepted accounting standards in the second quarter was 5.4 billion yuan. NetEase, Inc earned 18.1 billion yuan in net income from games and related value-added services in the second quarter, including 16.8 billion yuan from online games. The net income of youdao was 956.2 million yuan, down 26.1% from the same period last year. The net income of Cloud Music was 2.2 billion yuan, an increase of 29.5% over the same period last year.

  • China China waiver: the Hong Kong IPO offering price is HK $158.00 per share, raising about HK $16.236 billion

$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that the Hong Kong IPO offering price has been set at HK $158.00 per H share. The total proceeds from the global offering are expected to be about HK $16.236 billion (assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised). Trading is expected to commence on the main board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong at 09:00 on Thursday, August 25th.

  • The comparison study of B:ReCOV and mRNA Vaccines has been completed. All subjects have been enrolled in the study and vaccination has been studied.

$RECBIO-B (02179.HK)$The HKEx announced that the comparative study of ReCOV and mRNA vaccines has completed all subjects enrolled in the group and studied vaccination. A total of 600 subjects were enrolled in this phase II clinical trial. After the completion of booster immunization, all subjects will receive safety and immunogenicity follow-up.

  • Ganfeng Lithium: signed a strategic cooperation agreement with GAC

$Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK)$Announcement, vs.$GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$GAC Ean New Energy vehicle Co., Ltd. recently signed a "Strategic Cooperation Agreement". The two sides agreed to establish a long-term strategic cooperation relationship and cooperate from the upstream material end of new energy power battery. continue to explore in-depth cooperation in lithium resources development, mid-stream lithium salt deep processing and comprehensive recycling of waste batteries, so as to bring sustainable value to both sides and achieve win-win results.

Focus today

Key words: quarterly inspection of Hang Seng Index, XIAOMI Group and Deere issued financial reports.

Friday,Economic dataThis week, foreign central banks in the United States hold US Treasuries and the monthly rate of retail sales in Canada will be announced one after another.

Incident aspectHang Seng Index will announceResults of a series of reviews of the Hang Seng Index in the second quarter of 2022Changes in the relevant index components will take effect on September 5.

Financial reportHong Kong stock$XIAOMI Group-W (01810.HK) $The financial report hit with a big hit.

In terms of new sharesHong Kong stock$Shuangcai (02321.HK) $, US stocks$Dajianyunkang (GCT.US) $It goes on sale today.

000.pngNiuniu morning reading:

There are only a few opportunities, and when an opportunity comes, we rush to seize it.

-- Charlie Munger

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