High revenue growth and a substantial improvement in net operating cash flow. The company's revenue in the first half of 2022 was 2.35 billion yuan, an increase of 73.96% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 420 million yuan, an increase of 31.90% over the same period last year. The non-net profit was 480 million yuan, an increase of 100.47% over the same period last year. The operating cash flow was 400 million yuan, an increase of 3779.99% over the same period last year.
13-price pneumonia sales at home and abroad Liangwang, bivalent HPV vaccine on the market is about to release volume.
(1) the revenue of 13-valent pneumonia vaccine in the first half of the year was 2.01 billion yuan, an increase of 103.17% over the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company completed the export of the first batch of 1 million doses of 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine, with overseas revenue of 220 million yuan, an increase of 320.16% over the same period last year. From January to June 2022, the company issued 373.2 million bottles of 13-price pneumonia vaccine, an increase of 39.68 percent over the same period last year.
(2) the first batch of bivalent HPV vaccine of subsidiary Yuxi Zerun was approved and issued in May, and a total of 885000 doses of bivalent HPV vaccine were issued in the first half of the year. Shanghai Zerun, a subsidiary of the company, achieved 98.93 million yuan in revenue in the first half of the year.
(3) the company issued 418 million doses of 23-valent pneumonia vaccine and 1.58 million doses of diphtheria tetanus vaccine in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, Yuxi Watson carried out equipment transformation due to WHO-PQ project rectification and other reasons, but Hib vaccine, AC conjugate vaccine, ACYW135 polysaccharide vaccine and other products were not approved and issued.
With the increase of R & D investment, the return profit is slightly dragged down by non-recurrent profit and loss. In the first half of the year, sales / management / R & D expenses were 900 million / 110 million / 400 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 81% Mather 17% Universe 114%, accounting for 38% of operating income. The sales expense rate increased by 1pct over the same period last year, the management expense rate decreased by 5pct compared with the same period last year, and the R & D expense rate increased by 3pct over the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company's internal development expenditure increased by 480 million yuan, including COVID-19 mRNA vaccine 220 million yuan, ACYW135 meningitis conjugate vaccine 59.09 million yuan.
Non-recurrent profit and loss in the first half of the year-59.75 million yuan, of which the decline in Jiahe stock affected 88.755 million yuan.
Announce the plan for the issuance of convertible bonds for vaccine expansion and research and development. The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 1.2352984 billion yuan for the expansion and capacity expansion project of Yuxi Watson polysaccharide conjugate vaccine and the construction project of industrial transformation technology platform for biological drug pilot research.
Profit forecast and valuation. Excluding COVID-19 's vaccine revenue, we estimate that the company's 2022-24 net profit will be 1.001 billion yuan, 1.864 billion yuan and 2.304 billion yuan, and the compound growth rate of net profit in 2021-23 will be 109%. Referring to the average PE/G of comparable companies, we give Watson biology 0.75-0.85 times PE/G in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable market value range of 81.65-92.54 billion yuan and a reasonable value range of 50.97-57.77 yuan, which is rated as "better than the big market".
Risk hints: the risk of research and development, the risk of birth population change, the continuous risk of domestic COVID-19 epidemic, the risk of intensified competition in the domestic vaccine market and so on.