Edited by Guotai Junan Securities:"the basic Framework of Company Research-- also on the Research relationship between Mu Fang and Huang Yanming"
It is better to teach people to fish than to teach people to fish. Fu Tu Research has specially launched a series of articles on the research framework, which aims to work with investors."correct research ideas, understand the nature of the market, and seize investment opportunities".This article is the second in a series of research frameworks. Let's learn about it together."Great wisdom in stock selection"choose stocks from top to bottom.
Top-down: the grasp of the total amount and the judgment of the general trend
Grasp the macro direction (cycle and policy)-- > configure the industry, look for plate rotation opportunities-- > select high-quality stocks.
For example,Market of five Golden Flowers in 2003Due to China's entry into the WTO and its integration into the global division of labor manufacturing, the export-oriented manufacturing industry has exceeded expectations, production and sales are booming, and prices are rising; this wave of market is mainly driven by economic growth and performance improvement.
Look againFrom 2005 to 2007With the acceleration of urbanization and heavy industrialization in China, the stock market ushered in a big bull market represented by cyclical stocks such as real estate, iron and steel, coal, non-ferrous metals, building materials, construction machinery, banks and so on. The emergence of these strong plates is closely related to the macroeconomic trend and policy direction at that time.
Secret weapon: grasp the market's understanding of risk (risk-free interest rate, risk assessment, risk preference).
What does it mean? Taking 14 and 15 years as an example, the two bull markets come from the changes of risk-free interest rates and risk preference, respectively, which are the leading indicators of the bull market.
2014: risk-free interest rates fall sharply, pushing up the stock market hub.
* the risk-free interest rate is not the interest rate of treasury bonds, nor is it the interest rate of bank wealth management products. There are thousands of people, and everyone has their own risk-free interest rate index.
2015: reform combinations such as "mass innovation, mass entrepreneurship", "Belt and Road Initiative" and "state-owned enterprise reform" hit out, resulting in a rapid increase in market risk appetite and high sentiment to enter the market, pushing up the valuation center of the stock market.
*Risk assessment:It is the public's judgment of the uncertainty of the future, which generally does not change significantly.Risk preference:For the public mind for the risk and compensation matching degree (the degree of preference for risk).
When the risk appetite increases sharply, the return compensation demanded for the same risk people will decline; when the risk appetite decreases sharply, the income compensation demanded for the same risk people will increase. That's why storytelling, boastful stocks rose sharply in the first half of 2015, as they were characterized by high-risk preferences. Now that the low-risk preference continues to decline, and the market favors stocks with low-risk preference characteristics, analysts no longer tell stories and need to carefully use models to deduct EPS.
If analysts only analyze fundamentals, it will be difficult to seize this investment opportunity, because 2014-2015 is a bull market from top to bottom, but from the bottom up, it is difficult to find bull stocks. Why? Because the company's performance has not improved, what has changed is the risk-free interest rate and risk preference of the market.
More practical information:Research framework | after reading this article, I dare to say that I can analyze the industry.