Hot news

• Fed Evans: if inflation remains high, interest rates will rise above neutral rates next year

Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said on Tuesday that the Fed may raise the federal funds rate to between 2.25% and 2.5% by the end of the year, and then assess the state of the economy. Further rate increases may be needed if inflation remains high at that time. Speaking at an event at the New York Economic Club (Economic Club of New York), Mr Evans said he expected inflation to remain between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent by the end of 2022, which is not what policy makers want, so the Fed is likely to raise interest rates above neutral rates next year.

• Don't panic! Most of Wall Street said that US inflation is at its peak and US stocks will rise to 4800 by the end of the year.

While most analysts are still discussing whether fears of a US recession will affect stock market performance, Julian Emanuel, head of bullish Evercore ISI stocks, derivatives and quantitative strategies, expressed optimism that US inflation had peaked and that US stocks would start to rise next.Emanuel gave a year-end target for the S & P 500, which is expected to reach 4800.

• Commodity trumpeter Goldman Sachs Group shouted that natural gas may be too high

Us NYMEX natural gas futures fell about 10 per cent to a daily low of $7.039 per million British thermal units, rising to $8.060 the previous day, breaking the $8 mark for the first time since 2008. Goldman Sachs Group analysts believe that market tensions have "exacerbated the rise in benchmark gas in the US, exceeding what we think is basically reasonable, but the US natural gas market lacks supply and demand response mechanisms to force prices down". In addition, she believes that "the current highly volatile environment is likely to continue in the coming months."

• Us real estate giant Fannie Mae: the US economy is expected to fall into recession next year

The US economy is expected to suffer a recession next year, cutting its 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1 per cent and the GDP growth forecast for 2023 to-0.1 per cent from 2.2 per cent previously forecast. Our latest forecasts include expectations of a mild recession in the second half of 2023 because we believe that, given the current rate of wage growth and inflation, contraction in economic activity is the most likely path to meeting the Fed's inflation target. It now expects home sales to fall 7.4% this year and 9.7% in 2023. House price growth will slow from 20% in the first quarter to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

• Battery costs soar, but consumers around the world can't wait: demand for electric cars remains high

Even as the price of electric cars rises in the market, buyers around the world are still lining up to buy this year, subverting the perception of the traditional car industry for 15 years that the wave of electric car sales will break out only after battery costs come down.The cost of raw materials for various metals in lithium batteries has risen as a result of sanctions on Russian metals and speculative buying by investors. Although the average cost of lithium-ion batteries soared from $105 / kWh last year to $160 / kWh in the first quarter of this year, global demand for electric vehicles remains strong.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co: if the European Union immediately banned the import of Russian oil, the oil price might reach 185US dollars per barrel.

JPMorgan Chase & Co warned that a comprehensive and immediate ban could crowd out Russian oil supplies of more than 4 million barrels a day, pushing the price of Brent crude up by about 65 per cent to $185a barrel. However, just like phasing out dependence on Russian coal supplies, the market can initially phase out Russian oil supplies in about four months without significantly affecting prices, according to analyst Natasha Kaneva. The bank's main scenario assumption is much more conservative, predicting that Russian supply to Europe will fall by only half of that severity, with supply disruptions of about 2.1 million b / d by the end of the year.

Review of US stocks

• Technology stocks led US stocks to close higher on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq up more than 2 per cent.

The three major indexes of u.s. stocks collectively closed higher, with the Dow up 1.46%, the s & p 500 up 1.61% and the Nasdaq up 2.15%.

Technology stocks were among the top gainers, with software, automobiles and semiconductors generally rising. Amazon.Com Inc and AMD rose by more than 3%, Tesla, Inc., Alphabet Inc-CL C and Intel Corp by more than 2%, and NVIDIA Corp, Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp by more than 1%.

Most of the hot Chinese stocks rose, with iQIYI, Inc. up more than 8%, NIO Inc., XPeng Inc. and Bilibili Inc. up more than 3%, and BABA, Li Auto Inc. and JD.com down more than 1%.

• Down 25% in after-hours trading! Netflix Inc's financial report "knelt again", losing net paying users for the first time in more than a decade.

Streaming media giant$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $The first quarter of 2022 results were released. Despite expectations of a slowdown in Netflix Inc's user growth, the company lost 200000 users in the first quarter, which caught investors by surprise. According to the financial report, the total number of Netflix Inc Q1 subscribers decreased by 200000 compared with the fourth quarter of last year, far below the 2.5 million increase expected by analysts. The company's last decline was in October 2011, when it lost 800000 paying users. Q1 revenue was $7.868 billion, up 10% from a year earlier, slightly below market expectations of $7.93 billion. Q1's net income per share was $3.53, better than Wall Street's estimate of $2.89. Netflix Inc's shares plunged more than 25 per cent in after-hours trading, dragged down by the poor performance of Q1.

• Lack of help in acquiring Twitter? Musk is said to be willing to invest $10 billion to $15 billion in cash

According to the New York Post, citing two sources familiar with the situation, contemporary Iron Man billionaire Musk Elon Musk is willing to$Twitter (TWTR.US) $The bid cost between $10 billion and $15 billion in cash. If necessary, Musk may also consider borrowing from his 9.1% stake in Twitter, a move that could raise billions of dollars and plans to launch a bid in about 10 days, the source said.

• Press the restart button! Tesla, Inc. Shanghai factory officially resumed work, 8000 employees to the post! Promote more than 100 suppliers to resume work together.

According to the latest news, three weeks after the shutdown,$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Shanghai Super Factory officially resumed work and production on April 19. Tesla, Inc. said that there is still a week or so of spare parts in stock and is actively promoting more than 100 suppliers to resume work and smooth the logistics chain with the support of relevant government departments.

• IBM's first-quarter revenue was $14.2 billion.Operating income per share is $1.40

International Business Machines Corp (IBM.US) $reported results for the first quarter of 2022 after trading on Tuesday, which showed that the company's Q1 revenue was $14.2 billion, better than expected of $13.81 billion. IBM's operating income per share was $1.40 in the first quarter, compared with a market estimate of $1.41.

• The world's largest car company "overweight" hybrid cars: nearly 400 million invested in engine R & D and production

The world's largest automaker $Toyota Motor Corp (TM.US) $announced on its website on Tuesday that it will invest $383 million in its four plants in the United States for the development and production of hybrid engines.It is reported that the engine plant in Huntsville, Alabama will receive the highest funding ($222 million) for a new production line that can produce both internal combustion engines and hybrid power systems. The rest of the money will be allocated to the company's three plants in Kentucky ($16 million), Missouri ($109 million) and Tennessee ($36 million).

• Rosenblatt: give Alphabet Inc-CL C a buy rating with a target price of $4183

Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett started tracking$Alphabet Inc-CL C-C (GOOG.US) $And give a buy rating and a target price of $4183. Crockett believes that given Alphabet's new privacy restrictions on advertising, its leadership in viral video, and its growing success in cloud services, "No company is better able to take advantage of what is possible online and avoid ineffectiveness than Alphabet. "

• Wells Fargo & Co: maintain Microsoft Corp's overweight rating and lower the target price to US $400

Wells Fargo & Co analyst Michael Turrin will$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $The target price was reduced from $425 to $400 and the overweight rating on the stock was maintained. Analysts said he disagreed with any view that Microsoft Corp's peak was over, noting that Microsoft Corp's dominance in the market would continue to provide a broad basis for its long-term cross-selling, which is still undervalued. Analysts believe that Microsoft Corp's shares will benefit from the widespread shift to digitization, and the company's platform positioning is particularly advantageous in the current trend.

Yesterday's turnover of US stocks TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

• Tencent bought more than HK $1 billion in Beishui and bought more than HK $800m in Meituan.

On Tuesday, southbound funds bought a net HK $2.995 billion. Tencent, Meituan-W and CNOOC Limited received a net purchase of HK $1.067 billion, HK $866 million and HK $546 million respectively. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing ranks first in net sales, with a value of HK $396 million. Since March 24, southward funds have bought CNOOC Limited for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling about HK $5.87718 billion.

• Goliath Pharmaceuticals-B:3CLpro inhibitor ASC11 is expected to be an effective drug in the treatment of COVID-19

$Golly Pharmaceuticals-B (01672.HK) $It was announced that its oral small molecule drug candidate ASC11 (3CLpro inhibitor) is expected to become an effective drug for the treatment of COVID-19. The anti-novel coronavirus cell experiment showed that the antiviral activity (EC90) of ASC11 was 31 times as much as that of nimatvir (155 shock 5), 120 times that of Smur217622 (600 shock 5), 16 times that of PBI-0451 (78 amp 5) and 7 times that of EDP-235 (33 amp 5). What is important is that ASC11 remains active against different mutants of novel coronavirus.

• Li Ning Co. Ltd.: same-store sales recorded a low growth of 20% per cent per year in the first quarter.

Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331.HK) $issued an announcement, based on Li Ning Co. Ltd. 's point of sale which was put into operation at the beginning of the same quarter last year (excluding Li Ning Co. Ltd. YOUNG), same-store sales of the entire platform recorded a low annual growth of 20% and 30% in the first quarter ending March 31, 2022. As far as channels are concerned, the retail (direct operation) channel recorded a growth rate of 20% in the middle and the wholesale (franchisee) channel recorded a low growth of 10% and 20%, while the e-commerce virtual store business grew by 30% and 40% year-on-year.

Focus today

Key words:API crude oil inventory of the week in the United States; Procter & Gamble Co, Netflix Inc, ASML Holding NV, China Telecom Corporation financial report

Wednesday，Economic dataThe weekly API crude oil inventory and the weekly EIA strategic oil reserve inventory in the United States will be announced.

Incident aspectIn 2023, Evans, chairman of the FOMC and chairman of the Chicago Federal Reserve, delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club; in 2024, Daley, chairman of the FOMC and San Francisco Fed, spoke on the economic outlook.

Financial report，$Procter & Gamble Co (PG.US) $、$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $、$ASML Holding NV (ASML.US) $、$ASM Pacific (00522.HK) $、$China Telecom Corporation (00728.HK) $The financial results will be announced later.

Niuniu morning reading:

The best way to get something you want is to make yourself worthy of it.

-- Charlie Munger