The OECD stated that the USA's increase in import tariffs will slow economic growth and raise Global inflation, and further tariff increases could lead to a more serious economic recession. In the quarterly report, the OECD downgraded growth forecasts for most large economies for this and next year, with the main exceptions being China, Argentina, and Turkey. The largest downgrades are for the two economies that trade most frequently with the USA and have significantly higher export barriers: Mexico's economy is expected to shrink by 1.3% and 0.6% respectively this and next year, compared to previous forecasts of growth of 1.2% and 2.8%; Canada is expected to grow by 0.7% for both this and next year, down from previous forecasts of 2%. The OECD said that the USA's economy may grow by 2.2% and 1.6% for this and next year respectively, while previous forecasts were 2.4% and 2.1%. The Global economy is currently expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, down from previous annual growth forecasts of 3.3%.