美国10月的恐怖数据解读

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銳信資本 Nov 17, 2023 20:38 · 3436 Views

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Transcript

  • 00:00 The US horror data for October, or retail sales data, ah, is negative 0.1%
  • 00:06 The core is positive, 0.1% is higher than expected
  • 00:10 I've said it several times. The general direction of the terror data can be known in advance
  • 00:14 Just look at BoA Bank of America's predictions. Look at Bank of America this time
  • 00:18 The direction was right again. From last year until now, every time it is different from the same expectations as the market
  • 00:23 Bank of America is right. After all, most Americans have data on personal credit card loans
  • 00:29 Second
  • 00:29 The reason Serin Data has exceeded expectations this time is because student loan payments will begin in October
  • 00:35 So many investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, have lowered their expectations ahead of schedule
  • 00:40 That's how it surpassed expectations
  • 00:42 But overall, ah, consumption in the US is definitely a downward trend in everyone's eyes
  • 00:46 Third, Serin's, ah, look at the details, ah, the part I have highlighted in red
  • 00:51 Including the retail sales of furniture, motor vehicles, and grocery stores, there is a clear decline
  • 00:55 This is the same as what we saw in our old age
  • 00:58 The signs of an economic recession and a slowdown in early consumption are consistent
  • 01:01 Finally, ah, there is a data called control group in horror data
  • 01:06 It's called Control Group, which doesn't include food service, car dealers, building materials, gasoline stations, etc., which is used to calculate GDP
  • 01:14 After all, about 70% to 80 percent of the US GDP is consumed
  • 01:18 In October, compared to the previous month, this amount only increased by about 0.2%.
  • 01:23 Look, this is obvious, compared to a few months ago
  • 01:26 It's a downward trend. This shows America's GDP in the fourth quarter
  • 01:29 This is definitely true. As for the third quarter GDP, there will also be a clear decline
  • 01:32 Would it be good to summarize the horror data for October in the US
  • 01:35 It's not good. It shows US consumption
  • 01:37 It is clearly weakening at the beginning, ah, but it is also higher than expected
  • 01:41 So after the report came out, uh, the yield on US bonds increased