附件(C)(2)(D)有待審查的初稿和重大修訂項目Alpha分析(不同價格和8/11商品價格)2022年8月12日


待審閲的初稿和重大修改分析(8/11)(百萬美元,指標説明性交易價值每股要約價格$70.50$72.00$74.00$76.00$78.50説明性溢價相對於現價(每股68.57美元)2.8%5.0%7.9%10.8%14.5%溢價 收到初步建議書$64.50 9.3%11.6%14.7%17.8%21.7%1%溢價相對於指數化公司業績價格56.57 24.6%27.3%30.8%34。4%38.8%2022年6月13日至10日VWAP溢價69.53 1.4%3.5%6.4%9.3%12.9%溢價至30天VWAP截至2022年6月13日63.21 11.5%13.9%17.1%20.2%24.2%完全稀釋後未償還股份363.0 363.0 363.0股權價值$25,592$26,136$26,862$27,588$28,496加上:總債務6,331 6,331 6,331 6,331減少:現金和短期投資(553)(553)(553)(553)(553)加:非控股權益378 378 378企業價值$31,748$32,292$33,018$33,744$34,652管理層當前交易倍數預測隱含倍數共識指標(截至 08/11/2022)2 3 4公制Alpha代理同行P/CFPS 2022E$18.83 3.7x 3.8x 3.9x 4.0x 4.2x$19.53 3.5x 3.9x 2023E 18.88 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 17.47 3.9 4.3 TEV/EBITDAX 2022E$8,254 3.8x 3.9x 4.0x 4.1x 4.2x$8,207 3.8x 3.9x 2023E,003 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 7,580 4.1 4.3 FCF收益率2022E$12.40 17.6%17.2%16.8%16.3%15.8%$11.96 17.4%18.2%2023E 9.35 13.3%13.0%12.6%12.3%11.9%9.25 13.5%14.9%來源:Alpha管理層,公開申報,FactSet市場數據截至2022年8月11日注:代理 同行包括APA,CTRA、DVN、FANG、EOG、HES、MRO, OVV和PXD(“代理同行”)1.編制索引的薪酬績效價格的計算方法是收到初始提案時的價格乘以1減去自初始提案之日起的代理同行價格(12.3%)2.基於Alpha Financial按共識定價進行的預測3.基於FactSet共識估計4.表示由於與HES圭亞那資產配置文件1相關的估值差異而不包括HES的代理同行的中位數


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Executive Summary Valuation Multiples Since Initial Proposal th Relative Price Performance Since June 13 25% 6.3% --% (8.9%) (12.3%) (24.0%) (25%) (50%) 6/13/22 6/22/22 7/2/22 7/12/22 7/22/22 8/1/22 8/11/22 Alpha Proxy Peers HHUB WTI Change in Share Price and Valuation Multiples 1 Share Price EV / 2023E EBITDAX 6/13/22 7/20/22 8/11/22 Δ 6/13 - 7/20 Δ 6/13 - 8/11 6/13/22 7/20/22 8/11/22 Δ 6/13 - 7/20 Δ 6/13 - 8/11 Alpha $64.50 $66.51 $68.57 3.1% 6.3% 4.2x 4.1x 4.1x (1.8%) (2.3%) Peers: APA $45.57 $35.00 $34.84 (23.2%) (23.5%) 3.3x 2.6x 2.4x (21.0%) (25.9%) CTRA 32.56 28.91 29.33 (11.2%) (9.9%) 5.0 4.2 4.2 (16.6%) (16.4%) DVN 69.24 57.68 64.46 (16.7%) (6.9%) 4.9 4.1 4.5 (16.8%) (9.0%) EOG 132.73 105.57 113.54 (20.5%) (14.5%) 5.4 4.0 4.4 (24.6%) (18.5%) FANG 147.80 118.77 132.78 (19.6%) (10.2%) 5.0 4.2 4.5 (16.3%) (10.6%) HES 121.54 104.92 112.14 (13.7%) (7.7%) 6.9 6.0 6.4 (13.8%) (7.7%) MRO 28.39 22.92 23.91 (19.3%) (15.8%) 4.6 3.7 3.6 (20.9%) (21.2%) OVV 56.79 46.58 51.10 (18.0%) (10.0%) 3.4 2.7 3.0 (18.8%) (11.7%) PXD 261.37 216.81 228.48 (17.0%) (12.6%) 5.8 4.6 4.8 (20.5%) (17.1%) Average of Peers (17.7%) (12.3%) 4.9x 4.0x 4.2x (18.8%) (15.3%) Source: FactSet market data as of 8/11/2022 1. EV / 2023E EBITDAX based on Consensus trading multiples 2


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Commodity Prices Strip and Consensus Pricing – 7/20/22, 7/29/22 and 8/11/22 2H 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Thereafter WTI ($ / Bbl) $98.13 $85.47 $78.40 $73.77 $70.54 $70.54 Strip Pricing as of July 20, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 7.80 5.69 4.77 4.56 4.44 4.44 WTI ($ / Bbl) $102.55 $90.08 $78.91 $72.34 $66.60 $66.60 Consensus Pricing as of July 20, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 6.28 5.10 4.20 3.88 3.49 3.49 WTI ($ / Bbl) $98.05 $87.53 $80.04 $74.93 $71.34 $71.34 Strip Pricing as of July 29, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 8.16 5.63 4.66 4.50 4.40 4.40 WTI ($ / Bbl) $102.64 $90.66 $78.71 $72.34 $66.60 $66.60 Consensus Pricing as of July 29, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 6.38 5.16 4.20 3.88 3.49 3.49 WTI ($ / Bbl) $94.72 $86.75 $79.96 $75.11 $71.40 $71.40 Strip Pricing as of August 11, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 8.59 6.00 4.86 4.64 4.53 4.53 WTI ($ / Bbl) $103.40 $91.81 $79.76 $72.34 $66.60 $66.60 Consensus Pricing as of August 11, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 6.51 5.26 4.21 3.87 3.49 3.49 3


待審查的初稿和重大修訂Alpha 對等運營的情況分析概述,交易和估值指標交易規模估值倍數FCF收益率覆蓋槓桿收益增長經紀市場2022E價格/TEV/FCF/RF淨股息產品CFPS 1股票目標值EBITDAX CFPS EBITDAX收益率股息槓桿ROCE收益率CAGR CAGR Ticker價格YTD上行($Bn)(‘22E)(’22E)(‘22E)(’22E)(‘22E)(’22E)(‘22E)(’22-‘25E)(’22-‘25E)HES 51%18%$35.0$6.3 7.1x 7.2x 6%7%4.7x 0.7x 13%1% 13%11%EOG 28%30%67.1 16.0 5.3 4.4 12%13%3.7(0.2)28%8%8%(2%)2 46%21%42.3 10.2 4.6 4.7 16%14%14.8 0.1 31%10%2%(7%)DVN PXD 26%28%57.413.8 4.6 4.3 16%11%10.1(0.1)28%15%4%(10%)CTRA 54%22%23.6 6.9 4.1 3.7 17%14%2.0 0.2 25%9%1%(8%)3方23%30%23.8 7.6 3.7 4.2 19%15%3.6 0.5 25%9%3%(9%)4 OVV 52%33%134 4.8 3.0 3.6 20%28%10.7 0.534%2%1%n.a.MRO 46%36%16.3 6.1 2.9 3.2 27%22%21.3 0.2 42%1%0%(13%)APA 30%52%11.6 7.4 2.3 2.3 28%24%19.2 0.5 65%1%3%(12%)5平均值38%32%$31.9$9.1 3.8x 3.8x 19%18%10.7x 0.2x 35%7%3%(9%)5中位數38%30%23.7 7.5 3.9 3.9 18%15%10.4 0.2 29%8%3%(9%)6 Alpha 53%8%$24.9$8.2 3.817%13%10.7x 0.4x 25%2%3%(9%)來源:公司備案文件, 股票研究,FactSet截至2022年8月11日的市場數據3.與Rattler Midstream合併的預計數注:按P/CFPS(‘22e)排名4.Uinta和Bakken資產剝離的預計數1.年化最新固定和可變股息5.由於與HES圭亞那資產概況相關的估值差異, 不包括HES。2.Williston盆地和Eagle Ford收購的預計數6.基於共識估計的指標;目標價包括受限經紀商4


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision These materials have been prepared by Evercore Group L.L.C. (“Evercore”) for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Alpha (the “Company”) to whom such materials are directly addressed and delivered and may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated. These materials are based on information provided by or on behalf of the Company and/or other potential transaction participants, from public sources or otherwise reviewed by Evercore. Evercore assumes no responsibility for independent investigation or verification of such information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance prepared by or reviewed with the Management of the Company and/or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, Evercore has assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such Management (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a representation, whether as to the past, the present or the future. These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and affairs of the Company. These materials are not intended to provide the sole basis for evaluating, and should not be considered a recommendation with respect to, any transaction or other matter. These materials have been developed by and are proprietary to Evercore and were prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company. These materials supplement the “Project Alpha Discussion Materials Prepared for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors dated July 25, 2022 presented by Evercore to the Special Committee on that date in connection with the proposed transaction described in those materials (sometimes referred to as the July 25th Presentation ). These materials do not restate all of the assumptions and qualifications set forth in the July th 25 Presentation and must be read in conjunction with that presentation. These materials were compiled on a confidential basis for use by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company in evaluating the th potential transaction described in the July 25 Presentation and not with a view to public disclosure or filing thereof under state or federal securities laws, and may not be reproduced, disseminated, quoted or referred to, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Evercore. These materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase any securities and are not a commitment by Evercore (or any affiliate) to provide or arrange any financing for any transaction or to purchase any security in connection therewith. Evercore assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. These materials may not reflect information known to other professionals in other business areas of Evercore and its affiliates. Evercore and its affiliates do not provide legal, accounting or tax advice. Accordingly, any statements contained herein as to tax matters were neither written nor intended by Evercore or its affiliates to be used and cannot be used by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties that may be imposed on such taxpayer. Each person should seek legal, accounting and tax advice based on his, her or its particular circumstances from independent advisors regarding the impact of the transactions or matters described herein.