添付ファイル(C)(2)(D)審査すべき初稿と重大な改訂項目Alpha分析(価格と8/11商品価格)2022年8月12日


査読待ちの初稿と重大な修正分析(8/11)(百万ドル、指標説明的取引価値1株当たり要約価格$70.50$72.00$74.00$76.00$78.50説明的割増対現価格(1株68.57ドル)2.8%5.0%7.9%10.8%14.5%割増 予備提案書を受け取った$64.50 9.3%11.6%14.7%17.8%21.7%割増価格指数化会社業績価格56.57 24.6%27.3%30.8%34。4%38.8%2022年6月13日から10日までのVWAPプレミアム69.53 1.4%3.5%6.4%9.3%12.9%プレミアムから30日間VWAP 2022年6月13日まで63.21 11.5%13.9%17.1%20.2%24.2%完全希釈後に未償還株式363.0 363.0 363.0株式価値$25、592$26,136$26,862$27,588$28,496プラス:総債務6,331 6,331 6,331 6,331減少:現金および短期投資(553)(553)(553)(553)(553)プラス:非持株資本378 378 378企業価値$31,748$32,292$33,018$33,744$34,652管理層現在の取引倍数予測暗黙的倍数コンセンサス指標( 08/11/2022まで)2 3 4公制Alphaエージェント同行P/CFPS 2022 E$18.83 3.7 x 3.8 x 3.9 x 4.2 x$19.53.5 x 3.9 x 2023 E 18.88 3.7 3.9 x 3.9 4.0 17.47 3.9 TEV/EBITDAX 222 E$8,254 3.8 x 3.9 x 4.1 x 4.2 x$8,207 3.8 x 3.9 x 2023 E,207 3.8 x 3.9 x 2023 E,003 4.0 4.2 4.3 7,580 4.1.3 FCF収益率2022 E$12.40 17.6%17.2%16.8%16.3%15.8%$11.96 17.4%18.2%2023 E 9.3%13.0%12.6%12.6%11.9%9.25 13.5%14.9%ソース:Alpha経営陣、公開申告、FactSet市場データ2022年8月11日まで注:エージェント 同業者はAPAを含み、CTRA、DVN、FANG、EOG、HES、MRO, OVVとPXD(“代理同行”)1.インデックスを作成する報酬パフォーマンス価格の計算方法は,初期提案を受けたときの価格に1を乗じて初期提案日からのエージェント同行価格(12.3%)を引いた2.Alpha Financialコンセンサスに基づく定価による予測3.FactSetコンセンサス推定4.HESガイアナ資産プロファイル1に関する推定値の違いによりHESを含まないエージェント同業者の中央値 を示す


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Executive Summary Valuation Multiples Since Initial Proposal th Relative Price Performance Since June 13 25% 6.3% --% (8.9%) (12.3%) (24.0%) (25%) (50%) 6/13/22 6/22/22 7/2/22 7/12/22 7/22/22 8/1/22 8/11/22 Alpha Proxy Peers HHUB WTI Change in Share Price and Valuation Multiples 1 Share Price EV / 2023E EBITDAX 6/13/22 7/20/22 8/11/22 Δ 6/13 - 7/20 Δ 6/13 - 8/11 6/13/22 7/20/22 8/11/22 Δ 6/13 - 7/20 Δ 6/13 - 8/11 Alpha $64.50 $66.51 $68.57 3.1% 6.3% 4.2x 4.1x 4.1x (1.8%) (2.3%) Peers: APA $45.57 $35.00 $34.84 (23.2%) (23.5%) 3.3x 2.6x 2.4x (21.0%) (25.9%) CTRA 32.56 28.91 29.33 (11.2%) (9.9%) 5.0 4.2 4.2 (16.6%) (16.4%) DVN 69.24 57.68 64.46 (16.7%) (6.9%) 4.9 4.1 4.5 (16.8%) (9.0%) EOG 132.73 105.57 113.54 (20.5%) (14.5%) 5.4 4.0 4.4 (24.6%) (18.5%) FANG 147.80 118.77 132.78 (19.6%) (10.2%) 5.0 4.2 4.5 (16.3%) (10.6%) HES 121.54 104.92 112.14 (13.7%) (7.7%) 6.9 6.0 6.4 (13.8%) (7.7%) MRO 28.39 22.92 23.91 (19.3%) (15.8%) 4.6 3.7 3.6 (20.9%) (21.2%) OVV 56.79 46.58 51.10 (18.0%) (10.0%) 3.4 2.7 3.0 (18.8%) (11.7%) PXD 261.37 216.81 228.48 (17.0%) (12.6%) 5.8 4.6 4.8 (20.5%) (17.1%) Average of Peers (17.7%) (12.3%) 4.9x 4.0x 4.2x (18.8%) (15.3%) Source: FactSet market data as of 8/11/2022 1. EV / 2023E EBITDAX based on Consensus trading multiples 2


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Commodity Prices Strip and Consensus Pricing – 7/20/22, 7/29/22 and 8/11/22 2H 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Thereafter WTI ($ / Bbl) $98.13 $85.47 $78.40 $73.77 $70.54 $70.54 Strip Pricing as of July 20, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 7.80 5.69 4.77 4.56 4.44 4.44 WTI ($ / Bbl) $102.55 $90.08 $78.91 $72.34 $66.60 $66.60 Consensus Pricing as of July 20, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 6.28 5.10 4.20 3.88 3.49 3.49 WTI ($ / Bbl) $98.05 $87.53 $80.04 $74.93 $71.34 $71.34 Strip Pricing as of July 29, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 8.16 5.63 4.66 4.50 4.40 4.40 WTI ($ / Bbl) $102.64 $90.66 $78.71 $72.34 $66.60 $66.60 Consensus Pricing as of July 29, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 6.38 5.16 4.20 3.88 3.49 3.49 WTI ($ / Bbl) $94.72 $86.75 $79.96 $75.11 $71.40 $71.40 Strip Pricing as of August 11, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 8.59 6.00 4.86 4.64 4.53 4.53 WTI ($ / Bbl) $103.40 $91.81 $79.76 $72.34 $66.60 $66.60 Consensus Pricing as of August 11, 2022 HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 6.51 5.26 4.21 3.87 3.49 3.49 3


審査待ちの初稿と重大な改訂Alpha 対等運営の状況分析概要、取引と評価指標取引規模推定倍数FCF収益率カバーレバレッジ収益増加ブローカー市場2022 E価格/TEV/FCF/RF純配当製品CFPS 1株式目標値EBITDAX CFPS EBITDAX収益率配当レバレッジROCE収益率CAGR CAGR Ticker価格YTD($Bn)(‘22 E)(’22-‘25 E)(’22-‘25 E)HES 51%18%$35.0$6.3 7.1 x 7.2 x 6%7%4.7 x 0.7 x 13%1% 13%11%EOG 28%30%67.1 16.0 5.4 12%13%3.7(0.2)28%8%8%(2%)2 46%21%42.3 10.2 4.6.7 16%14%14.8 0.1 31%10%2%(7%)DVN PXD 26%28%57.413.8 4.6 4.3 16%11%10.1(0.1)28%15%4%(10%)CTRA 54%22%23.6 6.9 4.1 17%14%2.0 0.2 25%9%1%(8%)3方23%30%23.8 7.6 4.7%19%15%3.6 0.5 25%9%3%(9%)4 OVV 52%33%134 4.8 3.0 3.6 20%28%10.7 0.534%2%1%n.aMRO 46%36%16.3 6.1 2.9 3.2 27%22%21.3 0.2 42%1%0%(13%)APA 30%52%11.6 7.4.3.3 28%24%19.2 0.5 65%1%3%(12%)5平均値38%32%$31.9$9.1 3.8 x 19%18%10.7 x 0.2 x 35%7%3%(9%)5中央値38%30%23.7.5.9 3.9 18%15%10.4 0.2 29%8%3%(9%)6 Alpha 53%8%$24.9$8.2 3.817%13%10.7 x 0.4 x 25%2%3%(9%)ソース:会社届出書類、 株式研究、FactSet 2022年8月11日までの市場データ3.Rattler Midstreamと合併する予定数注:P/CFPS(‘22 e)で4.UintaとBakken資産剥離の予想数1.年化最新固定と可変配当金5.HESガイアナ資産概況に関する推定値の差により、 はHESを含まない。2.Williston盆地とEagle Ford買収の予想数6.コンセンサス推定の指標に基づく;目標価格には制限ブローカー4が含まれている


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision These materials have been prepared by Evercore Group L.L.C. (“Evercore”) for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Alpha (the “Company”) to whom such materials are directly addressed and delivered and may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated. These materials are based on information provided by or on behalf of the Company and/or other potential transaction participants, from public sources or otherwise reviewed by Evercore. Evercore assumes no responsibility for independent investigation or verification of such information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance prepared by or reviewed with the Management of the Company and/or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, Evercore has assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such Management (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a representation, whether as to the past, the present or the future. These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and affairs of the Company. These materials are not intended to provide the sole basis for evaluating, and should not be considered a recommendation with respect to, any transaction or other matter. These materials have been developed by and are proprietary to Evercore and were prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company. These materials supplement the “Project Alpha Discussion Materials Prepared for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors dated July 25, 2022 presented by Evercore to the Special Committee on that date in connection with the proposed transaction described in those materials (sometimes referred to as the July 25th Presentation ). These materials do not restate all of the assumptions and qualifications set forth in the July th 25 Presentation and must be read in conjunction with that presentation. These materials were compiled on a confidential basis for use by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company in evaluating the th potential transaction described in the July 25 Presentation and not with a view to public disclosure or filing thereof under state or federal securities laws, and may not be reproduced, disseminated, quoted or referred to, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Evercore. These materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase any securities and are not a commitment by Evercore (or any affiliate) to provide or arrange any financing for any transaction or to purchase any security in connection therewith. Evercore assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. These materials may not reflect information known to other professionals in other business areas of Evercore and its affiliates. Evercore and its affiliates do not provide legal, accounting or tax advice. Accordingly, any statements contained herein as to tax matters were neither written nor intended by Evercore or its affiliates to be used and cannot be used by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties that may be imposed on such taxpayer. Each person should seek legal, accounting and tax advice based on his, her or its particular circumstances from independent advisors regarding the impact of the transactions or matters described herein.