附件(C)(2)(G)有待审查的初稿和重要修订项目Alpha补充讨论材料为董事会特别委员会准备,2022年9月18日


这些材料由Evercore Group L.L.C.(“Evercore”)为阿尔法(“本公司”)董事会特别委员会准备,并直接向其交付该等材料,不得用于 或依赖于具体预期以外的任何目的。这些材料基于由公司和/或其他潜在交易参与者或代表公司和/或其他潜在交易参与者提供的信息,这些信息来自公共来源或由 Evercore以其他方式审阅。Evercore不承担独立调查或核实此类信息的责任,并依赖此类信息在所有实质性方面都是完整和准确的。在该等资料包括由本公司管理层及/或其他潜在交易参与者编制或审阅或从公开来源取得的对未来财务表现的估计 及预测的范围内,Evercore假设该等估计及预测已根据反映该等管理层目前可得的最佳估计及判断(或就从公开来源获得的估计及预测而言,代表合理估计)的基准而合理地编制。对于该等信息的准确性或完整性,不作任何明示或暗示的陈述或 保证,本文中包含的任何内容都不是、也不应被视为关于过去、现在或未来的陈述。这些材料是为熟悉公司业务和事务的特定人士而设计的。这些材料不是为评价提供唯一依据,不应被视为关于以下方面的建议, 任何交易或 其他事项。这些材料由Evercore开发并归Evercore所有,专门为公司董事会特别委员会的利益和内部使用而准备。这些材料补充了Evercore于2022年7月25日向特别委员会提交的日期为2022年7月25日的“Project Alpha讨论材料”,该材料与该 材料中所述的拟议交易有关,并补充了于2022年7月28日、2022年9月2日和2022年9月13日提交给特别委员会的材料(有时统称为“先行陈述”)。这些材料没有重申7月份演示文稿中提出的所有假设和条件,必须结合这些演示文稿阅读。这些材料是在保密的基础上编制的,以供公司董事会特别委员会用于评估之前介绍的潜在交易,而不是为了根据州或联邦证券法公开披露或备案,未经Evercore事先书面同意,不得复制、传播、引用或 提及。这些材料不构成出售或购买任何证券的要约或要约,也不是Evercore(或任何联属公司)为任何交易提供或安排任何融资或购买与此相关的任何证券的承诺。Evercore不承担更新或以其他方式修改这些材料的义务。这些材料可能不反映Evercore及其附属公司其他业务领域的其他专业人员已知的信息。Evercore及其附属公司不提供法律、会计或税务建议。相应地,, 本文中包含的任何有关税务事项的陈述既非Evercore或其 关联公司的书面陈述,也非有意使用的陈述,任何纳税人都不能使用该陈述来逃避可能对其施加的税务处罚。每个人都应根据自己的具体情况,就本文所述交易或事项的影响向 独立顾问寻求法律、会计和税务建议。


有待审查的初稿和重要修订表 目录部分市场交易和财务更新I截至2022年9月16日的Alpha财务预测II初步估值分析III附录


初稿有待审查和重大修订I.市场交易和财务最新情况


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Market Trading and Financial Update ($ in millions, except per share amounts) Analysis at Various Prices (9/16/22) Harold Hamm Committee Harold Hamm Initial Offer Harold Hamm Counteroffers “Best and Final” Committee Counteroffers Initial Counteroffer (6/13/22) (8/1/22) | (8/3/22) | (8/30/22) | (9/15/22) (9/15/22) | (9/2/22) | (8/25/22) | (8/2/22) (9/15/22) (7/28/22) Metric Illustrative Transaction Value Offer Price per Share $70.00 $70.25 $70.50 $71.50 $72.00 $73.50 $74.00 $74.50 $75.00 $75.75 $78.25 $78.50 $81.25 Illustrative Premium to Current Price ($69.84/share) 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 2.4% 3.1% 5.2% 6.0% 6.7% 7.4% 8.5% 12.0% 12.4% 16.3% % Premium to Receipt of Initial Proposal $64.50 8.5% 8.9% 9.3% 10.9% 11.6% 14.0% 14.7% 15.5% 16.3% 17.4% 21.3% 21.7% 26.0% 1 % Premium to Indexed Comp Performance Price 59.02 18.6% 19.0% 19.5% 21.2% 22.0% 24.5% 25.4% 26.2% 27.1% 28.4% 32.6% 33.0% 37.7% % Premium to 10-Day VWAP as of 6/13/2022 69.53 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 2.8% 3.5% 5.7% 6.4% 7.1% 7.9% 8.9% 12.5% 12.9% 16.9% % Premium to 30-Day VWAP as of 6/13/2022 63.21 10.7% 11.1% 11.5% 13.1% 13.9% 16.3% 17.1% 17.9% 18.7% 19.8% 23.8% 24.2% 28.5% Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 Equity Value $25,410 $25,501 $25,592 $25,955 $26,136 $26,681 $26,862 $27,044 $27,225 $27,497 $28,405 $28,496 $29,494 Plus: Total Debt 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 6,350 Less: Cash & Short-Term Investments (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) (553) Plus: Noncontrolling interest 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 Enterprise Value $31,585 $31,676 $31,767 $32,130 $32,311 $32,856 $33,037 $33,219 $33,400 $33,672 $34,580 $34,671 $35,669 Management Current Trading Multiples Updated commodity Forecasts Implied Multiples Consensus Metrics pricing as of (As of 9/16/2022) 2 3 4 September 16, 2022 Metric Metric Alpha Proxy Peers P / CFPS 2022E $18.91 3.7x 3.7x 3.7x 3.8x 3.8x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x 4.0x 4.0x 4.1x 4.2x 4.3x $19.55 3.6x 3.9x 2023E 19.22 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 17.70 3.9 4.2 TEV / EBITDAX 2022E $8,324 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x 4.0x 4.0x 4.0x 4.0x 4.2x 4.2x 4.3x $8,200 3.8x 3.9x 2023E 8,169 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 7,648 4.1 4.1 FCF Yield 2022E $12.63 18.0% 18.0% 17.9% 17.7% 17.5% 17.2% 17.1% 16.9% 16.8% 16.7% 16.1% 16.1% 15.5% $11.87 17.0% 18.4% 2023E 9.65 13.8% 13.7% 13.7% 13.5% 13.4% 13.1% 13.0% 13.0% 12.9% 12.7% 12.3% 12.3% 11.9% 9.34 13.4% 15.4% Source: Alpha Management, public filings, FactSet market data as of 9/16/2022 Note: Proxy peers include APA, CTRA, DVN, FANG, EOG, HES, MRO, OVV and PXD (“Proxy Peers”) 1. The Indexed Comp Performance Price was calculated as the price at the receipt of the Initial Proposal multiplied by 1 minus the median Proxy Peers’ price performance since the date of the Initial Proposal (8.5%) 2. Based on the Alpha Financial Projections at Consensus Pricing as of 9/16/2022 3. Based on FactSet Consensus estimates 4. Represents the median of Proxy Peers excluding HES due to valuation difference associated with HES’ Guyana asset profile 1


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Market Trading and Financial Update Valuation Multiples Since Initial Proposal 1 Relative Price Performance Since June 13, 2022 25% 8.3% --% (7.5%) (8.2%) (25%) (29.6%) (50%) 6/13/22 6/28/22 7/14/22 7/30/22 8/15/22 8/31/22 9/16/22 Alpha Proxy Peers HHUB WTI Change in Share Price and Valuation Multiples Share Price EV / 2023E EBITDAX² 6/13/22 7/20/22 8/30/22 9/16/22 Δ 6/13 - 7/20 Δ 6/13 - 8/30 Δ 6/13 - 9/16 6/13/22 7/20/22 8/30/22 9/16/22 Δ 6/13 - 7/20 Δ 6/13 - 8/30 Δ 6/13 - 9/16 Alpha $64.50 $66.51 $70.03 $69.84 3.1% 8.6% 8.3% 4.2x 4.1x 4.2x 4.1x (1.8%) (0.9%) (1.6%) Peers: APA $45.57 $35.00 $39.32 $40.46 (23.2%) (13.7%) (11.2%) 3.3x 2.6x 2.6x 2.6x (21.0%) (20.5%) (21.1%) CTRA 32.56 28.91 30.40 28.74 (11.2%) (6.6%) (11.7%) 5.0 4.2 4.2 4.0 (16.6%) (16.6%) (21.2%) DVN 69.24 57.68 71.08 66.82 (16.7%) 2.7% (3.5%) 4.9 4.1 4.5 4.3 (16.8%) (8.0%) (11.7%) EOG 132.73 105.57 121.86 121.45 (20.5%) (8.2%) (8.5%) 5.4 4.0 4.7 4.6 (24.6%) (12.5%) (13.3%) FANG 147.80 118.77 134.07 132.62 (19.6%) (9.3%) (10.3%) 5.0 4.2 4.6 4.5 (16.3%) (9.4%) (10.0%) HES 121.54 104.92 122.12 121.64 (13.7%) 0.5% 0.1% 6.9 6.0 6.7 6.7 (13.8%) (3.8%) (3.3%) MRO 28.39 22.92 25.58 26.22 (19.3%) (9.9%) (7.6%) 4.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 (20.9%) (16.0%) (14.3%) OVV 56.79 46.58 52.83 49.55 (18.0%) (7.0%) (12.7%) 3.4 2.7 3.0 2.9 (18.8%) (10.0%) (14.5%) PXD 261.37 216.81 254.71 239.50 (17.0%) (2.5%) (8.4%) 5.8 4.6 5.4 5.1 (20.5%) (7.3%) (12.4%) Median of Peers (18.0%) (7.0%) (8.5%) 5.0x 4.1x 4.5x 4.3x (18.8%) (10.0%) (13.3%) Source: FactSet market data as of 9/16/2022 1. Proxy Peers relative price performance calculated as an average of Proxy Peers indexed price performance 2. EV / 2023E EBITDAX based on Consensus trading multiples 2


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Market Trading and Financial Update 1 Strip and Consensus Pricing – 6/13/22, 7/20/22, 8/30/22 and 9/16/22 2H 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Thereafter WTI ($ / Bbl) $114.24 $98.87 $87.17 $78.81 $73.00 $73.00 Strip Pricing HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 8.63 6.62 5.32 4.93 4.82 4.82 June 13, 2022 WTI ($ / Bbl) $99.15 $87.55 $77.29 $70.43 $67.06 $67.06 Consensus Pricing HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 5.92 4.76 3.90 3.53 3.49 3.49 WTI ($ / Bbl) $98.13 $85.47 $78.40 $73.77 $70.54 $70.54 Strip Pricing HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 7.80 5.69 4.77 4.56 4.44 4.44 July 20, 2022 WTI ($ / Bbl) $102.55 $90.08 $78.91 $72.34 $66.60 $66.60 Consensus Pricing HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 6.28 5.10 4.20 3.88 3.49 3.49 WTI ($ / Bbl) $93.59 $85.24 $77.05 $71.18 $66.72 $66.72 Strip Pricing HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 8.82 6.62 5.29 4.92 4.82 4.82 August 30, 2022 WTI ($ / Bbl) $102.90 $91.27 $80.15 $73.12 $68.20 $68.20 Consensus Pricing HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 6.66 5.46 4.32 3.96 3.55 3.55 WTI ($ / Bbl) $89.37 $78.93 $72.56 $68.16 $64.95 $64.95 Strip Pricing HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 8.03 6.08 5.15 4.92 4.82 4.82 September 16, 2022 WTI ($ / Bbl) $102.67 $91.40 $79.23 $73.06 $68.10 $68.10 Consensus Pricing HHUB ($ / MMBtu) 7.06 5.51 4.55 4.17 3.60 3.60 1. Commodity prices pull prior to final settlement of FactSet on 9/16/22 and may not reflect the final daily price available 3


有待审查的初稿和重大修订市场 同行运营的交易和财务更新概述,交易和估值指标交易规模估值倍数FCF收益率覆盖杠杆收益增长经纪市场2022E价格/TEV/FCF/RF净股息产品CFPS 1股 目标值EBITDAX CFPS EBITDAX收益率股息杠杆ROCE收益率CAGR CAGR Ticker价格YTD上行($Bn)(‘22E)(’22E)(‘23E)(’22E)(‘22E)(’22E)(‘22E)(’22-‘25E)(’22-‘25E)HES 64%13%$38.0$6.3 7.6x 7.7x 6%6%4.8x 0.7x 13%1%13%10%EOG 37%23%71.8 15.8 5.6 4.8 11%12%1.6(0.0)31%7%8%(2%)PXD 32%19%60.1 13.7 4.9 14%10%9.5(0.3)25%14%4%(11%)2 DVN 52%19%43.9 10.4 4.7 4.8 15%14%15.0 0.2 32%9%2%(5%)CTRA 51%29%23.1 7.0 4.0 3.6 18%15%2.1 0.1 26%9%1%(8%)3方23%31%23.8 7.6 3.74.19%16%3.8 0.6 24%9%3%(9%)MRO 60%23%17.96.0 3.2 3.5 24%19%21.0 0.2 42%1%0%(13%)4 OVV 47%41%13.0 4.7 3.0 3.6 20%29%10.2 0.5 34%2%1%n.a.APA 50%36%13.5 7.3 2.7 2.6 24%22%17.9 0.5 64%1%3%(9%)5平均值44%28%$33.4$9.1 4.0x 3.9x 18%17%10.1x 0.2x 35%7%3%(8%)5中位数49%26%23.5 7.4 3.9 18%15%9.9 0.2 31%8%3%(9%)6Alpha 56%7%$25.4$8.2 3.6 3.8 17%13%10.6x 0.4x 25%2%3%(9%)来源:公司备案文件, 股票研究,FactSet截至2022年9月16日的市场数据3.与Rattler Midstream合并的预计数注:按P/CFPS(‘22e)排名4.Uinta和Bakken资产剥离的预计数1.年化最新固定和可变股息5.由于与HES圭亚那资产概况相关的估值差异, 不包括HES。2.Williston盆地和Eagle Ford收购的预计数6.基于共识估计的指标;目标价包括受限经纪商4


有待审查的初稿和重大修订II.截至2022年9月16日的Alpha财务预测


有待审查的初稿和重大修订Alpha 截至9月16日的财务预测,2022年阿尔法财务预测-假设◼阿尔法财务预测纳入了阿尔法管理层提供的以下假设:●2022E -2026E每2022年预算的收入和支出以及阿尔法的五年预测融资假设:2026年10月到期的●循环信贷安排以相同的条款延长●假设2023年到期的4.500优先票据在2023年第二季度偿还 ●假设2024年到期的3.800优先票据在2024年第二季度偿还分配政策:●除了基于股票的薪酬回购之外,该预测不包括2022年第一季度以后的任何股票回购该预测假设2022年第二季度和第三季度的股息约为1.01亿美元,2022年第四季度及以后的股息金额可以忽略不计。来源:●5


有待审查的初步草案和重大修订阿尔法 截至2022年9月16日的财务预测商品价格假设WTI(美元/bbl)$120.00$100.00$80.00$68.10$63.83$60.00$40.00 7/1/22 7/1/23 7/1/24 7/1/25 7/1/26 2H 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2026E 2025E 2026E条带定价截至2022年9月16日 $89.37$78.93$72.56$68.16$64.95截至9月16日的共识定价2022 102.67 91.40 79.23 73.06 68.10 Henry Hub($/MMBtu)$10.00$8.00$6.00$5.25$4.00$3.60$2.00$--7/1/22 7/1/23 7/1/24 7/1/25 7/1/26 2H 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 截至9月16日的条带定价$8.03$6.08$5.15$4.92$4.82截至9月16日的共识定价,2022 7.06 5.51 4.55 4.17 3.60带材定价截至2022年9月16日共识定价截至2022年9月16日来源:FactSet市场数据截至2022年9月16日注意:商品价格在9月16日FactSet最终结算前拉动,可能不反映最终每日可用价格6


有待审查的初稿和重大修订Alpha 截至2022年9月16日的财务预测(百万美元,除生产数据外)带状定价历史Alpha预测带状定价2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 22E-26E 1基准价格WTI油价(美元/桶)$68.06$89.37$78.93$72.56$68.16$64.95 Henry Hub天然气价格(美元/MMBtu)$3.88$8.03$6.08$5.15$4.92$4.82产量(与7月份的演示持平)石油(MMBbls)73 59 87 93 94 99天然气(Bcf)370 416429 455 463总当量(MBoe)120 142 156 165 170 177总当量(MBoed)330 390 428 451 466 484 5.6%石油48.8%51.3%55.6%56.7%55.3%56.3%收入石油$3949$6,878$6,741$6,635$6,229$6,250 Gas 1,844 3,367 2,6792,286 2,296 2,295石油和天然气收入$5,794$10,245$9,421$8,921$8,545加上:对冲的影响($129)($1,254)$-$-$-$--加上:石油和天然气服务运营54 71 71 71净收入$5,719$9,061$9,492$8,992$8,596$8615减税: 生产税(404美元)(747美元)(696美元)(677美元)(651美元)(657美元)减去:运营费用(513)(706)(719)(799)(831)减去:运输(225)(283)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)股权薪酬(170)(176)(234)(247)(255) (265)减少:DD&A(1,887)(1,953)(2,183)(2,316)(2,362)(2,469)减少:其他费用(58)(79)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)$2,462$5,118$5,312$4,644$4,182$4,净利息(费用)收入($250)($273)($217)($165) ($125)($98)其他(费用)收入(26)(3)(0)53 78 93减:所得税(520)(1,183)(1,248)(1,111)(1,013)(990)净收入$1,666$3,659$3,847$3,422$3,122$3,052(4.4%)加:DD&A$1,893$1,968$2196美元2329美元2374美元2, 482加: 递延所得税准备金520 575 425 310 305 244加:基于股票的薪酬63 78 64 64 68 70加:其他非现金费用48 780(334)(173)36 62加:营运资本净额(217)(249)105 37 40(17)运营现金流$3,974 $6,810$6,302$5,990$5,944$5,893(3.6%)减去:资本支出($1,562)($2,693)($3,399)($3,291)($3,536)729)减去:营运资本增加(219)(32)354(68)3(57)加上:非控股权益的贡献31 23 62 5-- 减去:对非控股权益的分配(22)(44)(48)(45)(43)(40)加上:净借款和其他866 1,599(219)(777)(1,251)(1,685)自由现金流$2,638$4,345$2,812$2,622$2,325$2,141(16.2%)备注:EBITDAX$4,463$7,141(16.2%)956$7,290 $6,993$6,840$6,881(3.6%)来源:FactSet截至2022年9月16日的市场数据,Alpha Management 1.基准价格不包括WTI或HH大宗商品价格的差异;2022年E定价中包含8个月的实际数据7


有待审查的初稿和重大修订Alpha 截至2022年9月16日的财务预测(百万美元,共识定价预测历史阿尔法共识定价CAGR 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 22E-26E 1基准价格WTI油价(美元/桶)$68.06$102.67$91.40$79.23$73.06$68.10 Henry Hub天然气价格(美元/MMBtu)$3.88$7.06$5.51$4.55$4.17$3.6产量(与7月份的演示持平)石油(MMBbls)59 73 87 93 94 99天然气 (Bcf)370 415 416429 455 463总当量(MBoe)120 142 156 165 170 177总当量(MBoed)330 390 428 451 466 484 5.6%石油48.8%51.3%55.6%56.7%55.3%56.3%收入石油$3949$7,392$7,829$7,259$6,690$6,565 Gas 1,844 3,160 2,444 2,030 1,957 1,729石油和天然气收入$5,794$10,273$9,289$8,648$8,295 Plus:来自对冲的影响($129)($936)$-$-$-$-+:石油和天然气服务运营54 71 71 71净收入$5,719$9,687$10,344$9,359$8,718 减税365美元:生产税(404美元)(792美元)(790美元)(719美元)(675美元)(656美元)减去:运营费用(513)(706)(719)(760)(799)(831)减去:运输(225)(283)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)(278)股权薪酬(170)(176)(234) (247)(255)(265)减:DD&A(1,887)(1,953)(2,183)(2,316)(2,362)(2,469)减:其他费用(58)(79)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)(69)净利息(费用)收入($250)($273)($213) ($154)($111)($83)其他(费用)收入(26)(3)(0)53 78 93减:所得税(520)(1,325)(1,435)(1,193)(1,041)(933)净收入$1,666$4,097$4,422$3,676$3,207$2,874(8.5%)加:DD&A$1,893$1,968$2196美元2329美元2374美元2, 482加: 递延所得税准备金520 586 424 310 304 244加:基于股票的薪酬63 78 64 64 68 70加:其他非现金费用48 568(217)(94)52 62加:营运资本净额(217)(433)86 120 71 31运营现金流$3,864$6,976$6,406$6,077$5,764(4.3%)减去:资本支出($1,562)($2,693)($3,399)($3,291)($3,536)729)减去:营运资本增加(219)(216)520 34(49)(40)加上:非控制性权益的贡献31 23 62 5-- 减去:非控制性权益的分配(22)(44)(49)(46)(42)(37)加上:净借款和其他866 1,653 636(344)(1,199)(1,840)自由现金流$2,638$4,583$3,503$2,954$2,427$1,966(19.1%)备注:EBITDAX$4,463$8,966(19.1%)324$8,169 $7,408$6,969$6,646(5.5%)来源:FactSet截至2022年9月16日的市场数据,Alpha Management 1.基准价格不包括WTI或HH大宗商品价格的差异;2022年E定价中包含8个月的实际数据8


有待审查的初稿和重大修订三。 初步估值分析


有待审查的初稿和重大修订初步 阿尔法独立财务分析估值分析摘要每股价格说明基于阿尔法资产净值模型的资产级开发预测负担G&A和税收的阿尔法资产净值模型;单独估值的水务公司,按条带定价价值增加E&P$48.01$68.25;特许权使用费业务净资产净值从资产净值中扣除;按储备类别应用的各种折扣率;7/1/2022基于阿尔法资产净值模型的生效日期▪资产水平开发预测负担G&A和税费 阿尔法资产净值模型Wotco单独估值并按共识定价价值计入E&P$51.31$70.95;特许权使用费业务NCI从资产净值中扣除;按储备类别应用的各种贴现率;7/1/2022年生效日期 基于阿尔法合并财务的▪;截至阿尔法财务预测的资产负债表1$53.64$75.09/2022;9.25%-10.25%WACC%;1.5%-2.5%的永久增长率;以带状定价2 3.75x-5.25x终端息税前利润退出倍数;基于阿尔法合并财务的7/1/2022年生效日期▪;截至阿尔法财务预测的资产负债表1$55.09$75.84 6/30/2022;9.25%-10.25%的WACC;1.5%-2.5%的永久增长率;按共识定价2 3.75 x-5.25x终端EBITDAX退出 倍数;2022年7月1日生效日期2▪2022E合并EBITDAX为8,324 MM,3.5x-4.5x$63.53$86.46 TEV/EBITDAX 2▪2023E合并EBITDAX为8,169 MM,3.8x-4.5x 2▪2022E CFPS为18.91美元,3.5倍 -4.5x$66.46$86.75价格/CFPS 2▪2023E CFPS为19.22美元,3.5x-4.5x$63.53$86.46 2先例交易-TEV/EBITDAX▪2022E合并EBITDAX为8美元, 324 MM,3.5x-4.5x$61.73$80.64 2先例 交易-基于精选能源现金私有化和买入交易,价格/CFPS▪2022E CFPS为18.89美元,3.3x-4.3倍▪$74.18$89.55溢价自2018年1月以来支付:分析师自2022年7月18日以来报告的目标价百分位数的15.0%-30.0%▪范围,未打折;19公布价格$70.00$78.00分析师预期价格目标▪分析师平均目标价$74.63$40.82$74.22▪基于2022年9月16日之前的收盘价 52周交易范围当前股价(2012年9月16日收盘):$69.84哈姆家族的建议对价(2012年9月15日):$73.50 9来源:阿尔法公司模型,阿尔法资产净值模型,公司备案文件,FactSet截至2022年9月16日的市场数据1.关于修改后的WACC的计算,请参见第21页的WACC分析2.更新的多区间交易倍数折现参考值净值分析现金流程请参见第17页和第18页的交易倍数分析


有待审查的初稿和重大修订初步 估值分析和自9月2日以来估值范围的变化演示条带定价Alpha资产净值模型(5.49美元)(4.50美元)Alpha资产净值模型$0.14$0.20共识定价Alpha财务预测(7.69美元)(11.15美元)定价Alpha财务预测$0.24(5.82美元)共识定价TEV/EBITDAX$0.36$0.29价格/CFPS$0.05$0.37$0.29先例交易-TEV/EBITDAX$0.36$00.05$0.06先例交易-支付的价格/CFPS溢价$--$-- 分析师远期价格目标$1.50$--52周交易区间$3.53$--10来源:阿尔法公司模型,Alpha资产净值模型、公司备案、事实集截至2022年9月16日的市场数据交易倍数折现参考值资产净值分析 现金流


有待审查的初稿和重大修订初步 阿尔法资产净值假设估值分析概述(除两个定价案例外,与7月份的演示没有变化)◼估值假设生效日期为2022年7月1日(即资产净值现金流的起点)◼预计产量和现金流基于阿尔法于2022年6月28日提供的阿尔法资产净值模型,并向前滚动至2022年7月1日生效日期阿尔法向PDP提供了更新,剩余位置和钻井节奏作为此次前滚的一部分 根据Alpha NAV Model◼中提供的Evercore对类型曲线区域的审查按储量类别选择的折扣率该模型应用了两种定价案例,如下所示:2H 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E此后WTI($/Bbl)$89.37 $78.93$72.56$68.16$64.95$64.95截至9月16日的带状定价,2022年HHUB(美元/MMBtu)8.03 6.08 5.15 4.92 4.82 WTI(美元/Bbl)$102.67$91.40$79.23$73.06$68.10$68.10共识定价截至2022年9月16日HHUB(美元/MMBtu)7.06 5.51 4.55 4.17 3.60 3.60◼对冲基于公司提供的对冲组合,截至2022年5月24日;公司确认截至2022年9月16日没有增加额外的对冲◼G&A假设是基于公司在Alpha NAV模型中提供的预测每Alpha管理层G&A假设为1.5美元/boe,每年最多3.5亿美元,并在2045年阿纳达科盆地完成钻井平台全部利用后减少50%◼现金税假设2021年底净资本成本为167亿美元,2021年年末联邦和俄克拉荷马州NOL余额分别为12亿美元和31亿美元, 每笔现金税折现率基于加权平均折现率前滚至2022年7月1日, 按准备金类别计算的未贴现现金流◼净债务基于阿尔法提供的截至2022年6月30日的余额◼完全稀释后的流通股基于阿尔法提供的股份计数截至2022年5月24日◼水务作为一个独立实体进行估值 ,包括所有资本支出◼完全合并的TMRC,扣除与FNV在风险◼峰会上的经济权益相关的非控股权益,按截至2022年6月30日的投资资本估值 (包括投资于Ekona Power的资本)注:商品价格在9/16/22最终结算FactSet之前拉动,可能不反映最终的每日可用价格11


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Preliminary Valuation Analysis ($ in millions, except per share amounts) Alpha NAV Summary at Various Discount Rates – Strip Pricing Asset Reserves Discount Rate Selected Range Area (MBoe) 0% 5% 8% 10% 12% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Low High Discount Rates PDP North 528,478 $12,233 $9,362 $8,317 $7,776 $7,324 $6,767 $6,062 $5,537 $5,127 $4,797 $7,776 $8,317 South 467,975 11,157 7,741 6,655 6,125 5,696 5,187 4,568 4,124 3,786 3,520 6,125 6,655 PRB 71,344 1,900 1,440 1,274 1,188 1,117 1,029 919 837 773 722 1,188 1,274 Permian 145,917 5,336 3,698 3,166 2,905 2,693 2,440 2,133 1,912 1,745 1,613 2,905 3,166 TMRC 16,371 508 340 288 264 244 222 194 175 160 148 264 288 Total PDP 1,230,085 $31,134 $22,580 $19,700 $18,258 $17,074 $15,644 $13,875 $12,584 $11,591 $10,800 $18,258 $19,700 Technical PUD North 607,743 $10,553 $6,841 $5,532 $4,870 $4,327 $3,675 $2,884 $2,329 $1,921 $1,612 $3,675 $4,327 South 406,336 8,557 4,489 3,362 2,850 2,458 2,019 1,529 1,210 989 828 2,019 2,458 PRB 437,466 8,460 3,330 2,074 1,557 1,193 827 484 305 203 141 827 1,193 Permian 476,130 12,709 6,514 4,708 3,879 3,245 2,541 1,775 1,300 986 769 2,541 3,245 Technical PUD Reserves 1,927,675 $40,278 $21,174 $15,675 $13,156 $11,222 $9,061 $6,672 $5,144 $4,100 $3,350 $9,061 $11,222 PROB North 343,976 $4,934 $2,531 $1,799 $1,459 $1,198 $909 $598 $409 $288 $207 $598 $909 South 582,826 10,238 4,240 2,832 2,252 1,838 1,409 976 721 556 443 976 1,409 PRB 231,160 4,172 2,056 1,452 1,179 972 745 502 354 258 193 502 745 Permian 124,011 2,918 1,363 944 759 622 475 320 226 164 121 320 475 PROB Reserves 1,281,974 $22,262 $10,190 $7,026 $5,650 $4,631 $3,538 $2,396 $1,710 $1,266 $963 $2,396 $3,538 POSS North 159,781 $2,184 $724 $376 $238 $145 $58 $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- South 556,192 9,786 3,650 2,246 1,684 1,293 905 541 349 238 169 349 541 PRB 805,764 13,395 4,390 2,468 1,734 1,245 782 382 192 93 37 192 382 Permian 345,542 7,105 2,300 1,333 978 747 534 354 268 218 186 268 354 POSS Reserves 1,867,279 $32,470 $11,065 $6,423 $4,635 $3,431 $2,279 $1,277 $809 $549 $392 $809 $1,277 Total Reserves 6,307,012 $126,144 $65,009 $48,825 $41,698 $36,357 $30,522 $24,220 $20,246 $17,506 $15,505 $30,523 $35,737 Total E&P Asset-Level Value $126,144 $65,009 $48,825 $41,698 $36,357 $30,522 $24,220 $20,246 $17,506 $15,505 $30,523 $35,737 1 Less: Hedges (972) (948) Plus: Value of WaterCo 1,419 2,211 Plus: Invested Capital from Energy Innovations 100 100 2 Less: G&A (2,366) (1,935) 3 Less: Cash Taxes (5,133) (4,270) Less: Minerals Non-Controlling Interest⁴ (285) (248) Less: Asset Retirement Obligation (63) (77) Enterprise Value $23,222 $30,571 Less: Net Debt (5,797) Implied Equity Value $17,425 $24,773 / Fully Diluted Shares (millions) 363.0 Implied Equity Value per Share $48.01 $68.25 Source: Alpha NAV Model; FactSet market data as of 9/16/22 1. Assumes hedges held to expiration and discounted at 5-8% 2. G&A discount rates based on the weighted average discount rates of reserve categories by total reserves (14.2%-18.0%) 3. Cash tax discount rates based on the weighted average discount rates of reserve categories by PV-0 of cash flows (13.6%-17.2%) 4. TMRC consolidated in NAV; NCI represents FNV’s share of future value associated with TMRC cash flows 12


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Preliminary Valuation Analysis ($ in millions, except per share amounts) Alpha NAV Summary at Various Discount Rates – Consensus Pricing Asset Reserves Discount Rate Selected Range Area (MBoe) 0% 5% 8% 10% 12% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Low High Discount Rates PDP North 528,478 $12,606 $9,823 $8,797 $8,263 $7,813 $7,256 $6,546 $6,011 $5,591 $5,250 $8,263 $8,797 South 467,975 10,099 7,202 6,265 5,802 5,427 4,977 4,424 4,022 3,714 3,468 5,802 6,265 PRB 71,344 1,921 1,482 1,322 1,239 1,169 1,083 974 892 828 776 1,239 1,322 Permian 145,917 5,698 3,991 3,436 3,162 2,940 2,675 2,351 2,118 1,940 1,799 3,162 3,436 TMRC 16,371 477 325 278 256 238 217 191 173 159 148 256 278 Total PDP 1,230,085 $30,802 $22,823 $20,097 $18,722 $17,586 $16,208 $14,486 $13,217 $12,233 $11,442 $18,722 $20,097 Technical PUD North 607,743 $10,745 $7,125 $5,835 $5,178 $4,637 $3,985 $3,188 $2,622 $2,203 $1,883 $3,985 $4,637 South 406,336 7,624 4,051 3,059 2,608 2,261 1,872 1,437 1,152 953 806 1,872 2,261 PRB 437,466 8,372 3,341 2,101 1,590 1,228 863 518 336 231 167 863 1,228 Permian 476,130 13,372 6,939 5,057 4,192 3,528 2,790 1,984 1,480 1,145 912 2,790 3,528 Technical PUD Reserves 1,927,675 $40,114 $21,455 $16,052 $13,568 $11,655 $9,510 $7,126 $5,590 $4,533 $3,768 $9,510 $11,655 PROB North 343,976 $5,085 $2,656 $1,912 $1,566 $1,299 $1,001 $679 $481 $353 $267 $679 $1,001 South 582,826 8,233 3,575 2,468 2,006 1,671 1,318 951 728 578 473 951 1,318 PRB 231,160 4,066 2,055 1,478 1,217 1,018 798 561 415 318 250 561 798 Permian 124,011 3,100 1,471 1,030 836 691 534 369 268 201 155 369 534 PROB Reserves 1,281,974 $20,483 $9,757 $6,888 $5,624 $4,678 $3,652 $2,561 $1,892 $1,451 $1,145 $2,561 $3,652 POSS North 159,781 $2,293 $783 $419 $273 $174 $80 $4 $-- $-- $-- $-- $4 South 556,192 7,927 2,924 1,795 1,346 1,035 727 439 287 198 142 287 439 PRB 805,764 12,832 4,265 2,430 1,727 1,256 808 416 226 124 65 226 416 Permian 345,542 7,178 2,372 1,400 1,041 807 591 407 317 265 230 317 407 POSS Reserves 1,867,279 $30,230 $10,344 $6,044 $4,388 $3,273 $2,206 $1,266 $829 $586 $438 $829 $1,266 Total Reserves 6,307,012 $121,628 $64,379 $49,082 $42,301 $37,193 $31,577 $25,438 $21,527 $18,803 $16,792 $31,622 $36,670 Total E&P Asset-Level Value $121,628 $64,379 $49,082 $42,301 $37,193 $31,577 $25,438 $21,527 $18,803 $16,792 $31,622 $36,670 1 Less: Hedges (657) (640) Plus: Value of WaterCo 1,419 2,211 Plus: Invested Capital from Energy Innovations 100 100 2 Less: G&A (2,366) (1,935) 3 Less: Cash Taxes (5,358) (4,537) Less: Minerals Non-Controlling Interest⁴ (275) (241) Less: Asset Retirement Obligation (63) (77) Enterprise Value $24,421 $31,551 Less: Net Debt (5,797) Implied Equity Value $18,624 $25,754 / Fully Diluted Shares (millions) 363.0 Implied Equity Value per Share $51.31 $70.95 Source: Alpha NAV Model; FactSet market data as of 9/16/22 1. Assumes hedges held to expiration and discounted at 5-8% 2. G&A discount rates based on the weighted average discount rates of reserve categories by total reserves (14.2%-18.0%) 3. Cash tax discount rates based on the weighted average discount rates of reserve categories by PV-0 of cash flows (13.5%-17.1%) 4. TMRC consolidated in NAV; NCI represents FNV’s share of future value associated with TMRC cash flows 13


有待审查的初稿和重大修订初步 估值分析(百万美元,每股价值除外)阿尔法贴现现金流分析-截至12月31日的年度条带定价,永久LTM EBITDAX 2H 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E多重增长EBITDAX$3,981$7,290$6,993 $6,840$6,881$6,881美元6,881美元6,881美元(2,864)(2,232)(1,964)(1,696)(3,729)EBIT$2,394$4,426$4,761$4,876美元5,881美元185美元3,152 1少:税金(598)(1,106)(1,190)(1,219)(1,296)(788)加:联邦和州NOL(Br)税盾156 29 23 25 2息税前利润1,951美元3,349美元3,594美元3,681美元3,891美元2,364加:税收折旧和摊销1,588 2,864 2,232 1,964 1,696 3,729少:营运资本变化(400)26 68(3)57-少:资本支出(1,588)(3,493) (3,291)(3,536)(3,729)(3,729)(3,729)无杠杆自由现金流$1,552$2,746$2,603$2,107$1,915$2,364 EBITDAX多重/永久增长率4.5x 2.0%隐含终端价值$30,964$30,500 PV@9.8%贴现率20,372 20,067 加:无杠杆自由现金流现金流现值@9.8%贴现率9,092 9,092隐含企业价值$29,464$29,159减去:截至6/30/22净债务(5,797)(5,797)减去:非控股权益(378)(378)隐含权益价值23,289美元22, 未摊薄股份363.0 363.0隐含每股权益价值$64.16$63.32退出多重敏感度永久增长率敏感度WACC WACC终端退出多重永久增长率3.0x 3.8x 4.5x 5.3x 6.0x 1.0%1.5%2.5%3.0%8.75%$47.46$57.21$66.96$76.71$86.45 8.75%$66.08$70.05$74.62$79.91$86.12 46.45 84.64 61.26 78.23 9.25%55.99 65.54 75.09 9.25%64.68 68.57 73.04 9.75%45.45 54.80 64.16 73.51 82.87 9.75%57.00 59.97 63.32 67.13 71.51 10.25%44.48 53.64 62.81 71.97 81.14 10.25%53.20 55.79 58.70 61.98 65.72 10.75%43.53 52.51 61.49 70.47 79.45 10.75%49.79 52.07 54.61 57.46 60.68隐含永久增长率隐含退出多重敏感度WACC WACC终端退出多重永久 增长率3.0x 3.8x 4.5x 5.3x 6.0x 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%8.75%(2.7%)(0.4%)1.1%2.2%3.0%8.75%4.4x 4.7x 5.1x 5.5x 6.0x 9.25%(2.2%)0.1%1.6%2.7%3.5%9.25%4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.5 9.75%(1.7%)0.6%2.1%3.2%4.0%9.75%3.9 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 10.25%(12.2%)1.1%2.6%3.7%4.5%10.25%3.7 4.2 4.4 4.7(0.7%)1.6%3.1%4.2%5.0%3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 10.75%14来源:基于资产净值模型长期有效税率的Alpha Financial预测1.25%税率;NOL余额和公司提供的预计年利用率;分析假设截至2022年6月30日,NOL利用率仍有一半,联邦政府剩余NOL余额为585万美元,北达科他州为2.29亿美元,俄克拉荷马州为2526万美元,蒙大拿州为47 mm


有待审查的初稿和重大修订初步 估值分析(百万美元,每股价值除外)阿尔法贴现现金流分析-截至12月31日的年度共识定价,永久LTM EBITDAX 2H 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E多重增长EBITDAX$4,350$8,169 $7,408$6,969$6,646$6,646$6,646美元:纳税折旧和摊销(1,588)(2,864)(2,232)(1,964)(1,696)(3,729)EBIT$2,762$5,305$5,176,005$4,646950$2,917 1减少:税款(691)(1,326)(1,294)(1,251)(1,237)(729)加上:联邦和州NOL税盾156 29 23 25 2 EBIAT$2,228$4,008$3,905$3,778$3,715$2,188加上:纳税折旧和摊销1,588 2,864 2,232 1,964 1,696 3,729减:营运资本变化(312)11(34)49 40-少:资本支出(1,588) (3,291)(3,536)(3,729)(3,729)(3,729)(3,729)(3,729)无杠杆自由现金流$1,916$3,390$2,813$2,255$1,722$2,188 EBITDAX多重/永久增长率4.5x 2.0%隐含终端价值$29,907$28,226 PV@9.8%贴现率19,677 18,571+:无杠杆自由现金流现值@9.8%贴现率10,189 10,189隐含企业价值$29,865$28,减少:截至6/30/22的净债务(5,797)(5,797)减少:非控股权益(378)(378)隐含股权价值$23,690$22, 584 未摊薄股份363.0 363.0隐含每股权益价值$65.26$62.22退出多重敏感度永久增长率敏感度WACC WACC终端退出多重永久增长率3.0x 3.8x 4.5x 5.3x 6.0x 1.0%1.5% 2.0%3.0%8.75%$49.17$58.59$68.00$77.42$86.83 8.75%$64.83$68.50$72.73$77.62$83.37 48.17 85.06 60.34 76.04 9.25%57.39 66.62 75.84 9.25%63.51 67.11 71.24 9.75%47.19 56.23 65.26 74.30 83.33 9.75%56.37 59.11 62.22 65.74 69.79 10.25% 46.24 55.09 63.94 72.79 81.64 10.25%52.83 55.23 57.92 60.95 64.41 10.75%45.30 53.97 62.65 71.32 79.99 10.75%49.65 51.76 54.11 56.75 59.72隐含永久增长率隐含退出多重敏感度WACC WACC终端出口 多重永久增长率3.0x 3.8x 4.5x 5.3x 6.0x 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%8.75%(2.2%)(0.0%)1.4%2.5%3.3%8.75%4.2x 4.5x 4.9x 5.3x 5.7x 9.25%(1.7%)0.5%1.9%3.8%3.8%9.25%4.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 9.75%(1.2%)1.0%2.4%3.5%4.3%9.75%3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 10.25%(0.7%)1.5%2.9%4.0%4.8%10.25%3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5(0.2%)2.0%3.4%4.5%5.3%3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 10.75%15来源:阿尔法金融预测1.25%税率基于资产净值模型中的长期有效税率;NOL 公司提供的NOL余额和预计年利用率;分析假设截至2022年6月30日NOL利用率仍有一半,联邦NOL余额为585万美元,北达科他州为2.29亿美元,俄克拉荷马州为2526万美元,蒙大拿州为4700万美元


初稿待审和重大修改初稿 估值分析DCF价值桥带共识低高低9月2日,2022$61.33$86.24$54.85$81.66隐含股价因方法变化而变化$2.63$5.86(永久增长至LTM EBITDA倍数)股票 因FCF从$2.90$2.95$0.18$0.18 2H‘2022E-2026E导致的股价变化$0.10$0.14$1.31$1.84退出EBITDA股价变化$6.11$6.37$5.90$6.15 2022年9月18日$53.64$75.09$55.09$75.84价格范围16


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision Preliminary Valuation Analysis ($ in millions, except per share amounts) Public Company Trading Metrics Alpha Peers Trading Analysis Price / Enterprise Value / Net Debt / Free Cash Flow Current % of 52-Week CFPS Yield EBITDAX Price Target Price Equity Enterprise Dividend EBITDAX 1 Company 9/16/22 High Low Implied Upside Value Value 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E Yield 2022E 2023E 2022E ($/share) (%) (%) (%) ($MM) ($MM) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) EOG $121.45 83.2% 169.8% 22.7% $71,768 $75,083 5.6x 5.2x 11.1% 11.8% 7.4% 4.8x 4.6x 0.2x Pioneer Natural Resources 239.50 84.0% 161.9% 19.4% 60,144 62,223 4.9 5.8 14.3% 10.3% 14.3% 4.6 5.1 0.2 Devon 66.82 85.6% 237.1% 22.6% 43,892 49,332 4.7 4.7 15.3% 14.0% 9.3% 4.8 4.3 0.6 Diamondback Energy 132.62 82.7% 167.6% 30.9% 23,812 31,934 3.7 4.1 18.9% 15.5% 9.2% 4.2 4.5 0.8 Coterra Energy 28.74 79.6% 151.4% 28.6% 23,145 25,066 4.0 4.3 18.0% 15.3% 9.0% 3.6 4.0 0.3 Marathon 26.22 81.5% 229.8% 22.9% 17,884 20,855 3.2 3.7 24.0% 18.9% 1.2% 3.5 4.0 0.6 Apache 40.46 78.7% 215.6% 36.1% 13,479 18,842 2.7 2.7 24.1% 22.1% 1.2% 2.6 2.6 0.7 Ovintiv 49.55 80.0% 176.6% 41.1% 12,988 16,943 3.0 2.3 19.6% 29.2% 2.0% 3.6 2.9 0.8 Hess 121.64 93.8% 180.7% 12.6% 38,017 48,253 7.6 6.7 5.8% 6.0% 1.2% 7.7 6.7 1.0 2 Mean 81.9% 188.7% 28.0% $33,389 $37,535 4.0x 4.1x 18.2% 17.1% 6.7% 3.9x 4.0x 0.5x 2 Median 82.1% 173.2% 25.7% 23,478 28,500 3.9 4.2 18.4% 15.4% 8.2% 3.9 4.1 0.6 3 Alpha $69.84 94.1% 171.1% 6.7% $25,352 $31,527 3.6x 3.9x 17.0% 13.4% 1.6% 3.8x 4.1x 0.7x Source: Public filings, FactSet market data as of 9/16/2022, Alpha Financial Projections 1. Represents annualized fixed and variable dividends 2. Excludes HES due to valuation difference associated with HES’ Guyana asset profile 3. Metrics based on Alpha Financial Projections at Consensus Pricing 17


有待审查的初稿和重大修订初步 估值分析(百万美元,每股金额除外)上市公司交易指标(续)2022E交易分析1上市公司交易分析-EBITDAX 2022E EBITDAX$8,324 EBITDAX倍数3.5x 4.5x-隐含企业 基于2022年EBITDAX的价值(不包括能源创新的投资资本)$29,136-$37,460加上:能源创新的投资资本$100以下:截至6/30/22(5,797)的净债务减少:非控股权益(378)隐含股权价值 $23,061-$31,$31385未清偿完全稀释股份(Mm)363.0隐含每股权益价值$63.53-$86.46上市公司交易分析-CFPS 2022E CFPS$18.91相关CFPS倍数3.5倍-4.5倍隐含股价 基于2022年CFPS(能源创新前)$66.18-$85.09加上:能源创新投资资本(每股)$0.28基于2022年CFPS的隐含股价$66.46-$85.36 2023E交易分析上市公司交易分析 -EBITDAX 2023E EBITDAX$8,169 EBITDAX乘以3.8 x 4.5 x-基于2023年EBITDAX的隐含企业价值EBITDAX(不包括来自能源创新的投资资本)$30,634-36,761加上:来自能源创新的投资资本$100 减去:截至6/30/22(5,797)的净债务减去:非控股权益(378)隐含股权价值24,559-30美元,未清偿完全稀释股份(Mm)363.0隐含每股权益价值$67.66-$84.53上市公司交易分析-2023年CFPS$19.22相关CFPS乘以3.5x-4.5倍隐含股价基于2023年CFPS(能源创新前)$67.26-$86.47加上:来自能源创新的投资资本(每股)$0.28隐含股价基于 2023年CFPS$67.53-$86.75来源:公开申报文件,FactSet截至2022年9月16日的市场数据, Alpha财务预测以共识定价18


有待审查的初步草案和重大修订初步估值分析(百万美元,除每股金额和如上所述)选择大于50亿美元的公司E&P交易选择交易隐含现货价格摘要1考虑溢价所有权交易价值/股权价值/ (公告)现金流现金流交易价值EBITDAX EBITDAX WTI HHUB 2 2宣布的买方区域($B)%股票1天前A/T(FY1)(FY2)($/BBL)($/MMBtu)5/24/21 Cabot Oil&Gas Cimarex Energy Co.Br}51/49%5.6x 4.9x 4.7x 4.1x$66.13$2.89 10/20/20先锋自然资源欧芹能源二叠纪7.6 100%8%76%/24%5.7 5.7 4.0 3.8 41.37 2.91 10/19/20康菲石油海螺资源二叠纪13.3 100%15%79%/21%4.9 5.6 3.8 4.7 40.69 2.80 9/28/20德文能源WPX Energy MUL5.7 100%3%57%/43%3.7 4.4 2.1 2.4 40.47 2.107/20/20人字形贵金属能源多项13.0 100%8%97%/3%6.9 6.4 3.4 3.0 40.83 1.64中位数$9.3 100%8%76%/24%5.6x 5.6x 3.8x 3.8x$40.83$2.80平均9.8 100% 72%/28%5.4 5.4 3.6 3.6 45.90 2.47 5/9/19西方石油阿纳达科石油公司$57.0 22%62%84%/16%7.1x 6.4x 6.0x 5.3x$61.58$2.60 11/1/18 Encana Newfield勘探MUL7.7 100%35%64%/36%5.0 4.1 3.8 3.1 63.67 3.24 8/14/18 响尾蛇能源二叠纪9.2 100%19%62%/38%8.9 6.8 8.3 6.1 67.04 2.96 3/28/18贝壳资源二叠纪RSP二叠纪9.5 100%29%75%/25%10.0 7.8 9.4 6.8 64.30 2.70中位数$9.4 100%32%70%/31%8.0x 6.6x 7.2x 5.7x$63.99$2.83平均值 20.9 81%36%71%/29%7.7 6.3 6.95.3 64.15 2.87先例交易分析-EBITDAX 2022E EBITDAX(FY1)$8,324 3 EBITDAX乘以3.5 x 4.5倍-基于2022 EBITDAX的隐含企业价值(不包括来自能源 创新的投资资本)29,136-37美元, 460加:能源创新投资资本减少100美元:截至2012年6月30日的净债务(5797美元)减少:非控股权益(378美元)隐含股权价值23,061-31美元,385未清偿完全稀释股份(Mm) 363隐含每股权益价值$63.53-$86.46先例交易分析-CFPS 2022E CFPS(FY1)$18.91 3相关CFPS倍数3.3x-4.3倍隐含股价基于2022年CFPS(能源创新前)$61.45- $80.36 Plus:能源创新投资资本(每股)$0.28基于2022年CFPS的隐含股价$61.73-$80.64来源:公司备案和新闻稿,Enverus,Alpha Financial按共识定价进行预测1.溢价 基于宣布前最后一个未受影响的交易日2.基于分析师的平均共识预测;FY1是指宣布交易的当前未报告年度或年度,FY2是指随后的第3年。根据与之前时间段的交易相比,大宗商品曲线的大幅现货溢价,选择了多个范围19


有待审查的初稿和重大修订初步 估值分析已付溢价分析:能源现金认购和收购(百万美元,单位金额除外)溢价日期1-20天-1天宣布收购/目标对价优先现货VWAP 11/22/21 Paloma Partners/Goodrich 石油公司股票换现金7.0%7.5%07/26/22壳牌美国公司/壳牌中游伙伴公司/壳牌中游伙伴公司23.0%23.6%06/02/22 Hartree Partners,LP/Spraogue Resources LP现金换单位18.9%20.7%05/25/22 Höegh LNG Holdings Ltd/ Höegh LNG Partners LP现金换单位35.0%42.2%04/22/22 Ergon,Inc./Blueknight Energy Partners,L.P.现金换单位51.5%47.5%10/04/21石峰基础设施合作伙伴/Teekay LNG合作伙伴LP现金换单位8.3%5.3%08/23/21里程碑 分红/里程碑基础设施合作伙伴LP现金换单位38.4%35.0%02/22/21贝莱德全球能源和电力基础设施基金/GasLog Ltd.17.2%30.8%12/17/19黑石基础设施合作伙伴/Tallgras Energy LP 单位56.4%33.9%10/01/19 Brookfield Business Partners L.P./Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.现金换单位28.1%15.1%05/10/19 IFM Investors/Buckeye Partners,L.P.现金换单位27.5%23.8%04/02/19 UGI Corporation/ameriGas Partners, L.P.现金/股票单位13.5%22.2%03/18/19 ArcLight Energy Partners Fund V,L.P./American Midstream,LP现金换单位31.3%31.2%11/26/18 ArcLight Energy Partners Fund VI, L.P./TransMontaigne Partners L.P.现金换股12.6%9.2%10/18/18 Valero Energy Corporation/Valero Energy Partners LP现金换股6.0%9.4%10/09/18 Antero Midstream GP LP/Antero Midstream Partners LP现金/股换股63.7%54.6%07/04/18 OCI N.V./OCI Partners LP现金换股10.0%NA最低6.0%5.3%全部 交易中值23.0%至23.7%意味着26.4%25.8%最大63.7%54.6%溢价,即每股73.50美元的阿尔法现金换股14.0%10.9%溢价分析截至6月14日的1天前现货股价,2022美元64.50美元1天前期现货溢价 15.0%30.0%基于1日前期现货价格溢价$74.18-$83.85 20天VWAP溢价2022年6月14日$68.89 20天VWAP溢价15.0%30.0%基于20天VWAP溢价$79.22-$89.55隐含购买价 价格范围$74.18-$89.55上游现金支付-私人来源:Bloomberg,FactSet截至2022年9月16日的市场数据,公开申报文件1.已支付的VWAP溢价的计算方法是将要约的价值除以收购方股票/单位在宣布前最后一个交易日的收盘价加上收到的任何现金的交换比率,再除以从宣布前最后一个未受干扰的交易日起计算的目标的20个交易日的VWAP 20


有待审查的初稿和重大修订 附录


有待审查的初稿和加权的重大修订 资本分析的平均成本(百万美元,除每股金额外)Alpha-WACC分析股价市场权益总债务和总债务/调整后未杠杆化1 2 Beta Beta公司9/16/22价值优先股总资本 EOG$121.45$71,768$6,388 8.2%0.99 0.93先锋自然资源239.50 60,144 4,303 6.7%0.87 0.83德文66.82 43,892 6,363 12.7%1.04 0.94赫斯121.64 38,017,424 18.1%0.87 0.75 Coterra Energy 28.74 23,145 2,836 10.9%0.77 0.70响尾蛇 能源132.62 23,812 5,573 19.0%1.13 0.96马拉松26.22 17,884 4,353 19.6%1.00 0.85 CAPM阿帕奇40.46 13,479 5,307 28.3%1.03 0.80 Ovintiv 49.55 12,988 4,183 24.4%1.33 1.07平均16.4%1.00 0.87中值18.1%1.00 0.85 3阿尔法$69.84$25,352 $6,350 20.0%1.04 0.87无风险利率⁴3.8%未杠杆化Beta 0.85债务和优先/总资本18.1%调整后杠杆化股权Beta 0.99 WACC供给侧MRP历史MRP 6.2%7.5%市场风险溢价⁵规模溢价⁶0.4% 资本成本⁷10.4%11.6%税前债务成本⁸6.3%税后债务成本4.7%WACC 9.3%10.3%来源:截至2022年9月16日的Factset市场数据,公司备案文件5.根据达夫和菲尔普斯2022年估值手册1.调整后的股本 Beta计算公式为:(0.67)×Raw Beta+(0.33)×1.0;贝塔指数与标准普尔500指数6.基于Alpha市值的规模溢价为25.4 Bn(十进制2)指数7.资本的权益成本计算为:无风险利率+(杠杆权益Beta ×市场风险溢价)+2.非杠杆Beta的计算公式为:调整后的权益Beta×(E/(E+D×(1-T))公司规模溢价3.基于Alpha Management提供的截至2022年6月30日的未偿债务面值8.基于Alpha Notes YTW的债务的税前成本2032年到期4.无风险利率基于20年期美国国债21


有待审查的初稿和重大修订补充 分析1 LTM EBITDAX随时间变化的倍数TEV/LTM EBITDAX Alpha TEV/LTM EBITDAX与代理同行的差异简单平均当前2022年2021年3年5年6.0x APA 3.2x 4.7x 6.9x 5.5x 5.6x 5.6x 4.0x DVN 4.4 6.1 11.1 7.3 7.4 7.9 EOG 4.6 5.9 9.1 6.6 8.5 9.9 2.0 x Fang 4.1 5.59.3 7.0 9.6 15.6 0.7x 0.0x MRO 4.2 5.6 7.8 5.6 6.0 6.4 OVV 2.8 3.8 6.8 5.0 6.5 9.1(2.0x)PXD 4.7 6.7 12.3 8.2 9.2 13.9(4.0x)CTRA 4.7 5.8 11.0 8.4 9.6 14.5 HES 9.2 10.7 16.5 12.3 11.69.6(6.0x)1 4.0x 5.5x 9.0x 6.4x 7.5x 9.8x代理对等(平均值)(8.0x)Alpha 4.7x 6.1x 8.4x 6.2x 7.5x 9.2x TEV/LTM EBITDAX 45.0x 40.0x 35.0x 30.0x 25.0x 20.0x 15.0x 10.0x 5.0x 4.7x 0.0x 9月12日-9月13日-9月14日-9月16日-9月17日-9月18日-9月19日-20日-9月21日 来源:截至2022年9月16日的FactSet市场数据阿尔法代理同行范围注:图表和按周计算的平均值1.不包括HES因与HES圭亚那资产概况相关的估值差异而产生的估值差异;由于最近COG和XEC 22之间的交易,CTRA被排除在外


有待审查的初稿和重大修订水务公司 补充信息(以百万美元为单位)阿尔法水务公司独立财务分析指标摘要水务公司描述▪来源水:2023E综合EBITDA为14 mm,4.0x-6.0x▪采出水 收集和处置:2023E$1,419$1,818 TEV/EBITDA综合EBITDA为248 mm,5.5x-7.0x▪源水:2023E综合EBITDA为14 mm,5.0x-7.5x$1,681$2,211▪采出水收集和处置: 2023E综合EBITDA为248 mm,5.0x-7.5x8.5x来源:Alpha Financial Products 23先例交易同业集团交易分析


有待审查的初稿和重大修订Water co 补充信息(以百万美元为单位,每股金额除外)同行集团交易分析产生的水收集和处置同行52周股权企业价值/EBITDA分配净债务/公司/ 合伙企业9/16/22高值2022E 2023E收益率2022E EBITDA Aris Water Solutions,$15.94 67.6%$940$1,305 8.4x 6.1 x 2.3%2.3 x 1 Crestwood Equity Partners LP 29.74 90.2%3,674 7,816 9.4 8.2%8.8%3.7 NGL Energy Partners LP 1.47 50.5%195 3,947 6.7 6.3--%5.8平均值8.2 x 6.8 x 3.7%3.9 x 8.4 6.3%3.7债务/企业价值/EBITDA公司9/16/22高价值2022E 2023E收益率2022E EBITDA\选择能源服务,$7.19 68.9%$822$796 4.6x 3.4x NA NM TETRA Technologies,Inc.4.19 72.1%552 668 8.5 6.6 NA 1.2x平均值6.6x 5.0x NA 1.2x中值6.6 5.0 NA 1.2来源:公开申报,截至2022年9月16日的FactSet市场数据1.收购Sendero,出售Barnett和阿巴拉契亚的形式24


待审阅和重大修订水务公司 补充信息部分汇总分析(以百万美元为单位)同行集团交易分析2023E 2023E EBITDA结果企业价值范围EBITDA多范围高水源EBITDA$14 4.0x-6.0x$55$83采出水收集和处置 248 5.5-7.0 1,364 1,735企业总价值$1,419$1,818先例交易分析2023E 2023E EBITDA结果企业价值范围EBITDA多范围高水源水$14 5.0x-7.5x$69$104 产水收集和处置248 6.5-8.5 1,611 2,107企业总价值来源:Alpha财务预测


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision The Mineral Resources Company Supplemental Information ($ in millions) TMRC NAV Summary at Various Discount Rates – Strip Pricing Asset Discount Rate Selected Range Area 0% 5% 8% 10% 12% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Low High Discount Rates PDP TMRC $508 $340 $288 $264 $244 $222 $194 $175 $160 $148 $264 $288 Total PDP $508 $340 $288 $264 $244 $222 $194 $175 $160 $148 $264 $288 Technical PUD North $66 $19 $12 $10 $9 $8 $6 $6 $5 $4 $8 $9 South 666 214 143 118 102 86 69 58 50 44 86 102 Technical PUD Reserves $732 $233 $155 $128 $111 $93 $75 $64 $55 $49 $93 $111 PROB North $69 $14 $7 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $1 $1 $2 $3 South 885 191 95 65 48 34 23 17 13 11 23 $34 PROB Reserves $954 $205 $102 $70 $52 $37 $25 $18 $14 $12 $25 $37 POSS North $100 $15 $5 $3 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 South 830 177 88 62 47 34 24 18 15 12 18 $24 POSS Reserves $929 $192 $94 $65 $48 $35 $24 $18 $15 $12 $18 $24 Total Reserves $3,124 $970 $639 $527 $455 $386 $318 $275 $244 $222 $400 $460 % to Alpha 38.0% Value to Alpha $152 $175 % to Franco Nevada 62.0% Value to Franco Nevada $248 $285 Source: Alpha NAV Model 26


Preliminary Draft Subject to Review and Significant Revision The Mineral Resources Company Supplemental Information ($ in millions) TMRC NAV Summary at Various Discount Rates – Consensus Pricing Asset Discount Rate Selected Range Area 0% 5% 8% 10% 12% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Low High Discount Rates PDP TMRC $477 $325 $278 $256 $238 $217 $191 $173 $159 $148 $256 $278 Total PDP $477 $325 $278 $256 $238 $217 $191 $173 $159 $148 $256 $278 Technical PUD North $62 $19 $12 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $5 $8 $9 South 603 200 135 113 98 83 68 57 50 44 83 98 Technical PUD Reserves $665 $218 $148 $123 $107 $91 $74 $63 $55 $49 $91 $107 PROB North $69 $14 $7 $5 $4 $3 $2 $2 $1 $1 $2 $3 South 729 164 84 59 45 32 22 17 13 11 22 $32 PROB Reserves $798 $178 $91 $64 $49 $35 $24 $18 $15 $12 $24 $35 POSS North $101 $15 $5 $3 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 South 709 155 79 56 43 32 23 18 14 12 18 $23 POSS Reserves $810 $170 $84 $59 $44 $32 $23 $18 $14 $12 $18 $23 Total Reserves $2,751 $891 $601 $502 $438 $375 $312 $272 $243 $222 $389 $443 % to Alpha 38.0% Value to Alpha $148 $168 % to Franco Nevada 62.0% Value to Franco Nevada $241 $275 Source: Alpha NAV Model 27