DJ The Dow Is Up 92 Points Because the Fed and Disney Are Both Happy -- Barrons.com
By Evie Liu
Fedspeak Day. The main U.S. stock indexes didn't stray far from the break-even line yet again on Wednesday. An earlier report said U.S.-China trade talks had hit another obstacle. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that monetary policy would likely remain on hold for now.
The Hang Seng Index tumbled 1.8% and is now 4% down for the week, as the chaos in Hong Kong worsened and antigovernment protesters paralyzed parts of the city for a third day. Disney stock (ticker: DIS) jumped after its streaming service hit 10 million subscribers in the first day after launch. In today's After the Bell, we...
-- check on what's blocking the completion of a U.S.-China trade deal;
-- watch Fed Chair Powell talk about monetary policy again;
-- and ring an alarm on one of the closely watched sentiment indicators.
No News is Good News
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 92.10 points, or 0.33%, to close at a record 27,783.59, while the S&P 500 edged up 2.20 points, or 0.07%, to finish at 3094.04, which was also a record close. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 3.99 points, or 0.05%, to close at 8482.10 -- still its second-highest close in history.
The Wall Street Journal -- citing people familiar with the matter -- reported Wednesday that trade talks between the U.S. and China have hit another obstacle over farm purchases. The U.S. wants China to buy up to $50 billion in U.S. soybeans, pork, and other agricultural products annually. But, according to the report, Beijing is hesitant about committing to a number in the text of a potential agreement, and wants to have a way out should trade tensions escalate again.
Agriculture purchases aren't the only roadblock in the two countries' efforts to lock down a partial trade deal. There have been reports that the U.S. is considering rolling back some existing tariffs on Chinese imports as a part of the deal, but President Donald Trump later denied it.
While uncertainty remains, U.S. importers seem to be betting that the 15% tariffs on Chinese-made goods -- set to go into effect on Dec. 15 -- will be canceled. The executive director of the Port of Los Angeles -- the top seaport for U.S. trade with China -- told Reuters that importers weren't stockpiling goods ahead of planned tariffs as they did last year to avoid such duties.
Elsewhere, Fed Chair Powell stuck to his existing view on the U.S. economy in Congressional testimony on Wednesday. The U.S. economy is in a "very good place," he said, with unemployment at near-50-year lows and inflation just under the Fed's 2% target.
Indeed, data released on Wednesday suggests that inflation remained low and stable in October. The consumer-price index edged up 0.4% from the previous month, with energy accounting for more than half the increase. Over the past 12 months, the cost of living edged up 1.8%, well below last year's peak of nearly 3%.
Powell reiterated that the current monetary policy is appropriate and likely to remain on hold, as long as data continue to support the outlook. Weakness in global trade has weighed on business investment and exports, he said, and the central bank will continue to monitor risks.
The central bank has reduced the federal funds target rate by 75 basis points this year to a range of 1.50%-1.75%. The probability of an interest-rate cut at the Fed's December meeting has faded to under 4%, according to the CME FedWatch site.
With the major indexes hovering around record highs, a trade deal seemingly under way (for the moment), and appropriate monetary policy, the percentage of stock bulls pushed up to its highest level since mid-July, according to a closely watched investor survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. It's worth noting, though, that sentiment is often viewed as a contrarian indicator of the market's future direction. So sit tight.
Write to Evie Liu at email@example.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 13, 2019 17:41 ET (22:41 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Fedtalk日。美国主要股指周三再次远离盈亏平衡线。早些时候的一篇报道称，美中贸易谈判遇到了另一个障碍。美联储(Federal Reserve)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)表示，货币政策可能目前仍将保持不变。
恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)下跌1.8%，本周累计下跌4%，原因是香港混乱加剧，反政府抗议者连续第三天让香港部分地区陷入瘫痪。迪士尼股票(股票代码：DIS)在其流媒体服务推出后的第一天就达到了1000万用户，股价大幅上涨。在今天的“钟声之后”，我们.
“华尔街日报”(Wall Street Journal)周三援引知情人士的话报道，美国和中国之间的贸易谈判在购买农产品方面遇到了另一个障碍。美国希望中国每年购买高达500亿美元的美国大豆、猪肉和其他农产品。但是，根据报告，北京对在潜在协议文本中承诺一个数字犹豫不决，并希望在贸易紧张局势再次升级时找到一条出路。
美银美林(Bank Of America Merrill Lynch)的一项受到密切关注的投资者调查显示，随着主要指数徘徊在创纪录高位附近，贸易协议似乎正在进行(目前)，以及适当的货币政策，看涨股票的比例推高至7月中旬以来的最高水平。但值得注意的是，市场人气通常被视为市场未来走向的反向指标。所以坐着别动。