The Dow Is Up 92 Points Because the Fed and Disney Are Both Happy -- Barrons.com

道琼斯指数上涨92点,因为美联储和迪士尼都很高兴--Barrons.com

2019/11/14 06:41  道琼斯

DJ The Dow Is Up 92 Points Because the Fed and Disney Are Both Happy -- Barrons.com


By Evie Liu

Fedspeak Day. The main U.S. stock indexes didn't stray far from the break-even line yet again on Wednesday. An earlier report said U.S.-China trade talks had hit another obstacle. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that monetary policy would likely remain on hold for now.

The Hang Seng Index tumbled 1.8% and is now 4% down for the week, as the chaos in Hong Kong worsened and antigovernment protesters paralyzed parts of the city for a third day. Disney stock (ticker: DIS) jumped after its streaming service hit 10 million subscribers in the first day after launch. In today's After the Bell, we...


-- check on what's blocking the completion of a U.S.-China trade deal;

-- watch Fed Chair Powell talk about monetary policy again;

-- and ring an alarm on one of the closely watched sentiment indicators.

No News is Good News

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 92.10 points, or 0.33%, to close at a record 27,783.59, while the S&P 500 edged up 2.20 points, or 0.07%, to finish at 3094.04, which was also a record close. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 3.99 points, or 0.05%, to close at 8482.10 -- still its second-highest close in history.

The Wall Street Journal -- citing people familiar with the matter -- reported Wednesday that trade talks between the U.S. and China have hit another obstacle over farm purchases. The U.S. wants China to buy up to $50 billion in U.S. soybeans, pork, and other agricultural products annually. But, according to the report, Beijing is hesitant about committing to a number in the text of a potential agreement, and wants to have a way out should trade tensions escalate again.

Agriculture purchases aren't the only roadblock in the two countries' efforts to lock down a partial trade deal. There have been reports that the U.S. is considering rolling back some existing tariffs on Chinese imports as a part of the deal, but President Donald Trump later denied it.

While uncertainty remains, U.S. importers seem to be betting that the 15% tariffs on Chinese-made goods -- set to go into effect on Dec. 15 -- will be canceled. The executive director of the Port of Los Angeles -- the top seaport for U.S. trade with China -- told Reuters that importers weren't stockpiling goods ahead of planned tariffs as they did last year to avoid such duties.

Elsewhere, Fed Chair Powell stuck to his existing view on the U.S. economy in Congressional testimony on Wednesday. The U.S. economy is in a "very good place," he said, with unemployment at near-50-year lows and inflation just under the Fed's 2% target.

Indeed, data released on Wednesday suggests that inflation remained low and stable in October. The consumer-price index edged up 0.4% from the previous month, with energy accounting for more than half the increase. Over the past 12 months, the cost of living edged up 1.8%, well below last year's peak of nearly 3%.

Powell reiterated that the current monetary policy is appropriate and likely to remain on hold, as long as data continue to support the outlook. Weakness in global trade has weighed on business investment and exports, he said, and the central bank will continue to monitor risks.

The central bank has reduced the federal funds target rate by 75 basis points this year to a range of 1.50%-1.75%. The probability of an interest-rate cut at the Fed's December meeting has faded to under 4%, according to the CME FedWatch site.

With the major indexes hovering around record highs, a trade deal seemingly under way (for the moment), and appropriate monetary policy, the percentage of stock bulls pushed up to its highest level since mid-July, according to a closely watched investor survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. It's worth noting, though, that sentiment is often viewed as a contrarian indicator of the market's future direction. So sit tight.

Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 13, 2019 17:41 ET (22:41 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ道琼斯指数上涨92点,因为美联储和迪士尼都很开心--Barrons.com


作者:Evie Liu

Fedtalk日。美国主要股指周三再次远离盈亏平衡线。早些时候的一篇报道称,美中贸易谈判遇到了另一个障碍。美联储(Federal Reserve)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)表示,货币政策可能目前仍将保持不变。

恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)下跌1.8%,本周累计下跌4%,原因是香港混乱加剧,反政府抗议者连续第三天让香港部分地区陷入瘫痪。迪士尼股票(股票代码:DIS)在其流媒体服务推出后的第一天就达到了1000万用户,股价大幅上涨。在今天的“钟声之后”,我们.


--检查是什么阻碍了美中贸易协议的完成;

--看美联储主席鲍威尔再次谈论货币政策;

--并对备受关注的情绪指标之一敲响警钟。

不闻凶讯便是吉

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上涨92.10点,涨幅0.33%,收于创纪录的27,783.59点,标准普尔500指数上涨2.20点,涨幅0.07%,收于3094.04点,也是创纪录的收盘点位。纳斯达克综合指数下跌3.99点,或0.05%,收于8482.10点,这仍是历史上第二高的收盘点位。

“华尔街日报”(Wall Street Journal)周三援引知情人士的话报道,美国和中国之间的贸易谈判在购买农产品方面遇到了另一个障碍。美国希望中国每年购买高达500亿美元的美国大豆、猪肉和其他农产品。但是,根据报告,北京对在潜在协议文本中承诺一个数字犹豫不决,并希望在贸易紧张局势再次升级时找到一条出路。

农业采购并不是两国锁定部分贸易协议的唯一障碍。有报道称,美国正在考虑取消对中国进口商品征收的一些现有关税,这是该协议的一部分,但唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统后来否认了这一点。

尽管不确定性依然存在,但美国进口商似乎押注于将于12月15日生效的对中国制造商品征收15%的关税将被取消。洛杉矶港是美中贸易的最大港口,该港口的执行董事告诉路透社,进口商没有像去年那样在计划征收关税之前囤积货物,以避免征收此类关税。

在其他地方,美联储主席鲍威尔在周三的国会证词中坚持了他对美国经济的现有观点。他说,美国经济处于“非常好的地方”,失业率处于近50年来的低点,通胀率略低于美联储2%的目标。

实际上,周三发布的数据显示,10月份通胀保持在低水平和稳定状态。消费者价格指数较前一个月小幅上涨0.4%,其中能源占增长的一半以上。在过去的12个月里,生活成本小幅上涨了1.8%,远低于去年接近3%的峰值。

鲍威尔重申,目前的货币政策是适当的,只要数据继续支持前景,就有可能保持不变。他表示,全球贸易疲软给企业投资和出口带来压力,央行将继续监控风险。

央行今年将联邦基金目标利率下调75个基点,至1.50%-1.75%之间。根据CME FedWatch网站的数据,美联储12月会议上降息的可能性已降至4%以下。

美银美林(Bank Of America Merrill Lynch)的一项受到密切关注的投资者调查显示,随着主要指数徘徊在创纪录高位附近,贸易协议似乎正在进行(目前),以及适当的货币政策,看涨股票的比例推高至7月中旬以来的最高水平。但值得注意的是,市场人气通常被视为市场未来走向的反向指标。所以坐着别动。

写信给Evie Liu,电子邮件是evie.liu@barrons.com



(完)道琼斯通讯社

2019年11月13日17:41美国东部时间(格林威治时间22:41)

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